June Pre Training Camp Predictions - Pick Your Suprise & Disappointment

[goheels22002]

Biggest Surprise will be running backJonas Gray (5-10, 230) from Notre Dame making the team and picking up where LaGarrette Blount left off as the big hammer against teams with poor rushing defenses. Signed in 2013 as an UDFA by the Dolphins, Gray spent last season on the Ravens practice squad. He spent last season working on his blocking ability.

Biggest Disappointment will be Tommy Kelly's knee. It was a real disappointment when he went down in week 5 last season. That will continue this off-season, unfortunately. He arrived too late in his career to be an impact player with the Patriots.

 

[Buchanty]

Biggest Disappointment will be Tommy Kelly's knee. It was a real disappointment when he went down in week 5 last season. That will continue this off-season, unfortunately. He arrived too late in his career to be an impact player with the Patriots.

Lol - was caught between Kelly and WIlfork for biggest disappointment. I agree with your analysis, and do think he wont be what we thought he would be, a couple of years earlier and we might have.....

I just think expectations for VW are too high at the moment.

 

[Ring 6]

Surprise: Chandler Jones get 18 sacks.
Disappointment: Bryan Stork for those who are treating him like he was a top 10 pick

 

[supafly]

Not really. Keeping Arrington and cutting the rookie who would take his place cost 3.625mill.
Cutting Arrington and keeping the rookie costs 2.625 mill + the cost of the rookie.

We save cap money by cutting Arrington.

Yes, but isn't Arrington's salary already accounted for, in terms of the team currently having about 6.25m in cap space (after the Easley signing is official)?

While your scenario is quite helpful and makes a lot of sense to consider, cutting Arrington would certainly cut into our cap space for this particular season; although since it'd be a post June 1st cut, the team would have the option of spreading that dead cap hit throughout this year + next, should they choose to do so. Am I correct?

Bottom line is that cutting Arrington would count negatively towards this year's cap, wouldn't it? I imagine that could be minimal should they choose to spread it out for 2014 + 2015 though, so there may be a chance of it happening, as you say. I didn't figure that chance to be too high prior to reading your post.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

Surprise: Thompkins traded to Carolina.
Surprise to make the roster: Asa Watson
Disappointment: Will Smith

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, but isn't Arrington's salary already accounted for, in terms of the team currently having about 6.25m in cap space (after the Easley signing is official)?

While your scenario is quite helpful and makes a lot of sense to consider, cutting Arrington would certainly cut into our cap space for this particular season; although since it'd be a post June 1st cut, the team would have the option of spreading that dead cap hit throughout this year + next, should they choose to do so. Am I correct?

Bottom line is that cutting Arrington would count negatively towards this year's cap, wouldn't it? I imagine that could be minimal should they choose to spread it out for 2014 + 2015 though, so there may be a chance of it happening, as you say. I didn't figure that chance to be too high prior to reading your post.

I'm not sure what you mean.
The cost of keeping Arrington is 3.625. The cap hit for this year is 2.625 if he is cut.

We save 2mill in salary and accelerate 1 mill in signing bonus into the hit.

So no, it wouldn't count negatively toward this years cap to cut him, we would actually save money on this years cap.

 

[willdeespats]

Agreed. And not to be that guy (though anyone could do a lot worse than trusting in Bill), but Belichick uncharacteristically defended Arrington.. publicly. That and the amount they paid him tells me that Bill is seeing something in this guy that the rest of us aren't.. or aren't capable of seeing. I'm guessing that he's doing something right. Maybe that something is just um.. something that doesn't stick out to the average fan or pundit.

What I think BB sees is that Arrington does a pretty good job when the play of the game is in front of him. When it gets behind him, he has a very difficult time of watching the ball/QB as he trails behind a potential receiver. Inevitably, a safety winds up making the play on his man. So to me, I think he has a much better chance of making the 53 if gets involved with the SS candidates.

On the other hand, I don't think they will keep more than 10 DBs and IMO Arrington is 5th on CB list. And it looks like there are a couple of really promising rookie DBs who are really competing for a roster spot. I think is may well come down to Arrington vs a rookie.

Injuries in TC/PS can really screw the works, however!!

 

[supafly]

I'm not sure what you mean.
The cost of keeping Arrington is 3.625. The cap hit for this year is 2.625 if he is cut.

We save 2mill in salary and accelerate 1 mill in signing bonus into the hit.

So no, it wouldn't count negatively toward this years cap to cut him, we would actually save money on this years cap.

Thanks, Andy.

What I think BB sees is that Arrington does a pretty good job when the play of the game is in front of him. When it gets behind him, he has a very difficult time of watching the ball/QB as he trails behind a potential receiver. Inevitably, a safety winds up making the play on his man. So to me, I think he has a much better chance of making the 53 if gets involved with the SS candidates.

On the other hand, I don't think they will keep more than 10 DBs and IMO Arrington is 5th on CB list. And it looks like there are a couple of really promising rookie DBs who are really competing for a roster spot. I think is may well come down to Arrington vs a rookie.

Injuries in TC/PS can really screw the works, however!!

Many have spoken of the potential for Arrington to play the position of safety, and while it does make sense to have him keep the ball in front of him, I'm not sure of the other traits meshing into the position. It's certainly a possibility though.

I suppose some of these questions will be answered in training camp. While I still don't think that Arrington is in that much danger of being cut, stranger things have happened. As you say, injuries can immediately wreck all of our projections, so that will be taken into account.

 

[supafly]

I just think expectations for VW are too high at the moment.

I think a guy like Wilfork is always going to give you his all. He is experienced, and knows the ins/outs of our system better than anyone else.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with your perception that expectations are too high, since he's always been a beast in the middle of the line. The issue is recovering from the injury, and so far that looks to be going pretty well.

 

[supafly]

I'm not sure what you mean.
The cost of keeping Arrington is 3.625. The cap hit for this year is 2.625 if he is cut.

We save 2mill in salary and accelerate 1 mill in signing bonus into the hit.

So no, it wouldn't count negatively toward this years cap to cut him, we would actually save money on this years cap.

Okay, it looks like we're back to square one, since it's pretty obvious that cutting Arrington would put us in the red for 2014, which is what I was trying to ask in the post that you didn't understand (likely to no fault of yours).

Since your scenario includes the post-June 1st designation, your "cap savings" could be said about any number of players. Of course the kicker is that we also have to deal with it next year as well. I still think the bottom line is that it'd cost more to cut him than to keep him, which was my point all along, and the question that I was trying to propose to you.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Patriots&Year=2014

 

[Joker]

Biggest surprise? Supafly's unflappable demeanor over the course of many seasons here.

Biggest disappointment?...my sex life.

 

[supafly]

Biggest surprise? Supafly's unflappable demeanor over the course of many seasons here.

Biggest disappointment?...my sex life.

I don't know your situation personally, but I'm guessing that my situation being married could give you a run for your money...

Luckily "Playboy" magazine recently reached out via a postcard in the mail (I am being serious), offering me a one year subscription for only 12 bucks. Unfortunately, my wife brought the mail in, thus spoiling my whole opportunity.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Biggest surprise? Supafly's unflappable demeanor over the course of many seasons here.

Biggest disappointment?...my sex life.

Yes! The off-season is the ideal time to pay tribute to something that's been a source of wonder to many of us. (And Supafly is great too. )

 

[Miguel]

Information on Arrington
Current cap number - $3.625 m.
If cut, his cap number would be $2.625 million (1.625m prorated signing bonus and 1m fully guaranteed salary). Gross Cap savings = 1m. Net cap savings of 505K as it is likely that a player with a 495K salary would replace Kyle on the Top 51 list.

 

[Sticky Caulk]

I don't know your situation personally, but I'm guessing that my situation being married could give you a run for your money...

Luckily "Playboy" magazine recently reached out via a postcard in the mail (I am being serious), offering me a one year subscription for only 12 bucks. Unfortunately, my wife brought the mail in, thus spoiling my whole opportunity.

If you need Playboy you're using the internet wrong.

 

[Miguel]

Biggest surprise - Patriots trade a 2016 pick to build up depth at the offensive line position
Biggest disappointment - A couple of players suffer injuries during training camp.

 

[Nikolai]

I tend to avoid a lot of the offseason speculation stuff, so I may not be quite up to snuff on the prevailing opinions. With that in mind:

Surprise player: I'll go with Asa Watson to make the roster.
Disappointment: Brandon LaFell. I'm sure he'll make the roster, but he'll underwhelm even for the modest expectations set for him.

I would have said Will Smith like others, but I never had grand expectations for him. I'm curious about Justin Green, but there's too much depth ahead of him.

 

[Ring 6]

Okay, it looks like we're back to square one, since it's pretty obvious that cutting Arrington would put us in the red for 2014, which is what I was trying to ask in the post that you didn't understand (likely to no fault of yours).

Since your scenario includes the post-June 1st designation, your "cap savings" could be said about any number of players. Of course the kicker is that we also have to deal with it next year as well. I still think the bottom line is that it'd cost more to cut him than to keep him, which was my point all along, and the question that I was trying to propose to you.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Patriots&Year=2014

I'm not sure why you aren't getting this.

Arrington's cap hit is 3.625 mill if we keep him and 2.625 if we cut him.

Arrington has 5.875 mill guaranteed money left in his contract.
Whether we keep him or cut him, we will be charged that. He has already received it.

If we keep Arrington this year we pay him another 2 mill on top of that 5.875, so total cap cost from 2014 forward is at least 7.875 mill.
If we cut Arrington this year, total cap cost from 2014 forward will be 5.875.

I'm not sure why 'it can be said of many players' has anything to do with whether we save money by cutting him, or the premise that he has to make the team because he costs too much to cut could be true.

As far as 'dealing with that next year' I don't understand, because we have to deal with that next year any way.
We actually accelerate 1 mill of the future cap hits into this year while saving 1 mill in 2014.
That is why the savings a 1 mill and not 2mill by cutting a player with a 2 mill salary.

So, if kept in 2014, the sunk money remaining is 4.125 mill.
If cut in 2014 the sunk money remaining is 3.125 mill.

Whether you are talking about today, tomorrow, or forever, the Patriots save money on the cap by cutting Kyle Arrington.

The question is having him at 3.625 better than not having him and paying 2.625.
Clearly if a player at the minimum beats him out, then yes cutting him is wise.

 

[Christiancat]

Biggest surprise: Bill keeping 3QBS on the final roster.

Biggest disappointment: any player getting injured

 

[Ring 6]

Biggest surprise: Bill keeping 3QBS on the final roster.

As long as one isn't Tebow. Sorry, couldnt resist.

Actually I expect 3 and would be surprised if its only 2.