John Elway doesn't impress me as a GM

[Fencer]

Elway is:

1. Recruiting/flattering very good players.
2. Taking big gambles.

Both worked very well in the case of Peyton. Overall, I don't think it should be condemned, provided there's enough chance of those players being bargains to balance the obvious chance of them being busts.

Recall that Denver withstood a lot of injury and made it to the Super Bowl, so it's not as if Elway is building a top-heavy thin team.

 

[1960Pats]

Sorry, but you are just in denial. He went out and got one of the biggest players ever when several teams were courting him, and landed Manning. They instantly had one of the worst offenses in the league under Tebow, and became one of the top 3 offenses in the league the next year. Then they end up stealing Welker from their main AFC rival and break all of the Patriots records, beat the Patriots in the playoffs, and make this Manning/Brady debate becoming more irritating. And now that Elway has gone out and landed some studs for their defense now, well he is clearly determined to do everything possible to win a SB. He is doing a hell of a job. This is definitely sour grapes on your part and nothing more than that. Elway deserves credit. Not hate. I can't stand the guy, but he has built a winner and is doing what you would want a GM to do in order to sustain a winner and to improve every year.

I don't like Elway either. I haven't since he came into the league crying about where he wanted to play. His threat of going to play baseball for the Yankees was like a little kid stomping his feet because he wanted things his way.

I think Elway and the Manning clan are a perfect match.

Elway, after he couldn't win the big one for most of his career, got two SB rings by cheating. Not fake cheating like the Pats were accused of, but the real kind of cheating that translates into wins on the field.

I usually pull for the AFC in the SB, but I found myself rooting for the NFC twice during the BB era. Those two exceptions were the Bucs vs the Raiders in 2002 and the Seahawks vs the Broncos last year, two of the biggest slaughters in the history of the SB.

Buck Elway and the Froncos.

 

[MassPats38]

I think Elway has done well as a GM so far. The Broncos were a surprise, overachieving playoff team with some talent, and within two years they went to the Super Bowl based in large part on the talent added.

The deals have appeared to be well-written. Talib's damage can be limited this year, $12 million, and the $26 million guaranteed is not guaranteed barring a career-ending injury this season. I haven't heard Ware, Ward or Sanders's details, but if they are similarly written then they all could be one-year rentals unless they work out. I believe even Manning's deal guarantees him $19 million over next season and nothing more over that final two years of the 5-year deal. None of that sounds like stupid cap management, and many of the pieces added by Elway would be considered impact players.

I don't consider him Snyder-esque at all, as Elway has grabbed talent consistent with an overall plan while Snyder just grabbed talent. That is why the Redskins consistently stunk up the room. As BB opined, you do not win championships by collecting talent. You win by building a team. Elway seems to be doing that with some success.

 

[thsunga]

The truth is that the Broncos are very good because of Peyton Manning (which was his only good move) and young, drafted, cheap talent, such as Demaryius Thomas, Von Miller, Chris Harris, Julius Thomas, Terrence Knighton, Trindon Holliday, Knowshown Moreno, etc. These guys came from a different regime.

Given that Von Miller, Chris Harris, Julius Thomas, Terrence Knighton and Trindon Holliday all were acquired after Elway took over, it would seem that you are, without knowing it, quite impressed with his job thus far.

 

[jsull87]

Up for contracts next year: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Orlando Franklin, Von Miller, Terrence Knighton, Chris Harris, Kevin Vickerson

The day of reckoning may be closer than you think. At the very least, suppose they can pull off a miracle and sign all their core players. If there are any holes, or if Ware or Talib are huge busts, they are going to be strapped.

Yep but with how much space? Welker will be cut, Knighton, Vickerson and Harris will be either let go or resigned to cap friendly deals because they are not core players. Miller, Franklin and Thomas will be the keys. Wre could be let go next year. We just don't know enough about the contracts to be making this judgement.

E.g how much will the cap go up? how much more room does that give them? e.t.c

He has had the team for 3 years: Playoffs with Tebow, Playoffs with manning Superbowl with Manning. Hardly the resume of a GM that isn't impressive.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

A lot of excellent points in this thread.

thsunga- Nice catch, as I was wrong. However, I'm not sure how much I'd call most those players Elway's guys, since he was just coming in at that time. Nonetheless, you are correct and point taken.

Miguel- Point well taken. Perhaps I am guilty of putting up a double standard for the Pats and Broncos in terms of future cap space, and perhaps the Pats also are acting more desperately than I'd like to admit.

I'll just leave it at this:

Every time a team has tried to build/improve the way Elway is doing it this offseason, it is always a failure, and there's always an excuse/ reason given for why it was the right thing to do.

The Buffalo Bills went out and overspent on Mario Wiliams and Mark Anderson, and everyone claimed it was still a good idea because they had to "do something to become relevant." They are still irrelevant, now with an even bigger problem.

In 2011, the Philadelphia Eagles appeared to be missing just "a few pieces" since they already had a fairly loaded team on both sides of the ball, with Mike Vick coming off his best season. They were already a playoff team on the verge of being a real championship contender. They went out and got all those missing pieces, signing the prized free agent in Nmamdi Asomugah, along with Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins, and Ronnie Brown. They also let quite a few of their own go away, some of the role players, but no one noticed that. They stumbled to 4-8 before finishing 8-8, nonetheless a tremendously disappointing season. The pieces did not fit.

There are numerous examples of teams like the Redskins and Cowboys doing the exact same thing- paying big money to big name players. It never seems to work.

Now that Elway is doing the same thing- throwing money around at shiny names- it's a good idea because he has a "2-3 year window", as if other failed attempts were by teams who weren't trying to win now?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think people also have to remember that people have different goals and objectives.

BB's approach has allowed us to be competitive every single year, even a year without Brady.

Elway promised Manning everything he could do in a short window to win before Manning retires.

Both approaches have been successful. Both have achieved their objectives, despite being quite different.

Maybe the Broncos won't win a Super Bowl. Maybe they will be in cap jail in a few years (although Miguel's post makes me think otherwise). But Elway is doing exactly what he needs to do. It wouldn't work for us, but then again, he isn't aiming for the same thing we are.

 

[TB=TD]

Elway is trying to win with talent not potential.

 

[Salva135]

I think people also have to remember that people have different goals and objectives.

BB's approach has allowed us to be competitive every single year, even a year without Brady.

Elway promised Manning everything he could do in a short window to win before Manning retires.

Both approaches have been successful. Both have achieved their objectives, despite being quite different.

Maybe the Broncos won't win a Super Bowl. Maybe they will be in cap jail in a few years (although Miguel's post makes me think otherwise). But Elway is doing exactly what he needs to do. It wouldn't work for us, but then again, he isn't aiming for the same thing we are.

Funny, because Broncos fans apparently think the Pats are the ones who are going all-in for Brady's final years, and they are the ones set up for long-term success:

Bill and The Pats Are Following The Broncos

Yep we are forcing BB to press and use resources that could force a long term rebuild for the Pats also. NE won't be a legit threat like years past imo, especially post Brady.

Yeah, good thing the Broncos aren't in that situation at all.

There's not a single mention in that entire thread of Peyton being a factor in Elway's decision-making process.

 

[PATS16N0]

I've said it once, I'll say it again.

Bronco fans aren't that bright. Very low football IQ + supreme homerism.

Not trying to insult them with empty words. It's just my honest observation.

I used to post on a Denver forum and leading up to week #12 NONE of them knew who Talib even was, and all had to be brought up to speed on him by one of their posters. Now all of them insist Talib is better than Revis, who I guarantee none of them heard of until we signed him.

They don't watch football. They just run their mouths off from their Denver bandwagon.

 

[thsunga]

A lot of excellent points in this thread.

thsunga- Nice catch, as I was wrong. However, I'm not sure how much I'd call most those players Elway's guys, since he was just coming in at that time. Nonetheless, you are correct and point taken.

I agree that Elway has to share the credit for the very good 2011 draft.
So lets look at the 2012 FA class instead.

Elway got great value from Manning, Vickerson and Holliday.
And had some decent signings in Tamme and Dreesen, Adams, Koppen and Brookings. The only real miss that year was Tracy Porter for 5M(?)

Looking at 2013, his big signings were DRC for 5M, Welker for 5.5M, Vasquez for 5.5M, Knighton for 2.25M and Phillips for 1.5M.
I would claim every one of those outperformed their contracts.

 

[JMC00]

Funny, because Broncos fans apparently think the Pats are the ones who are going all-in for Brady's final years, and they are the ones set up for long-term success:

Bill and The Pats Are Following The Broncos

Yeah, good thing the Broncos aren't in that situation at all.

I found this one funny

I believe Brady's contract is structured in a manner that guarantees him big money if he is still on the roster the last day of the 2014 season. He will be 38 at the beginning of the 2014 season.

I am thinking if the Pat's do not get it done this year, they may elect to save the money and send Brady the way of Favre and Montana to finish out somewhere else. Why spend all the money to be second-fiddle? Why not save it and rebuild for another run?

His cap hit is lower in '15 & '16 than it is in '14,

'14- $14.8m cap hit
'15- $13m cap hit
'16- $14m cap hit

Cap is going up the next two years. Reports are it could be $145m in '15 and $160m in '16.

Now let's look at Manning's cap hits

'14- $17.5m
'15- $21.5m
'16- $21.5m

Idiot. They won't be sending Brady anywhere they'll more likely hammering out an extension with Revis with the understanding that the cap could be going up significantly the next two years.

And then you have the fact that D.Thomas is up after this year. He's gonna want some coin and if they franchise him it will be about $12m-$13m.

 

[PATS16N0]

Of all the AFC Championship rivals that has come and gone, I'm looking forward to Denver falling back down into mediocrity the most.

I hated the Ravens at one point. That gradually developed into respect with their win in the AFCCG. Denver... not so much. All mouth, all media, no beef.

 

[pdangle]

Elway's going for it now and next season and I feel he's pulling a classic Parcells (or maybe a Prez Bush even, haha). He's already planning the timing of his departure (if need be) just before everything starts to falls apart. Of course he'll take full credit for the teams success, which anyone could do if they don't care about securing the teams financial future, as long as you don't totally screw the pooch with picks/FA, and start with Peyton (plz dont break your nec, plz) at the helm. Heck it's formula has been proven to work. It's short-attention span 20-20 hindsight soundbite hey look over there theatre around the world these days.

Either that or maybe he's so beloved out there, he thinks he'll be able to ride out a 3 years of going 5-11 and a media/fan rebuilding shizstorm as long as he gets one trophy on the mantle. Fans will be savvy enough to know know they went for it, and this is the cost... (oh but gawd help him in if this scenario if the mantle goes empty)

I'm betting on outcome 1. Teed off with some presser about some lame life choice excuse as to why he must leave the job sooner than expected and sadly unfinished. Then right back to football after taking a year or two off. Whatever is just enough time off to ensure the media and fans remember only the good times, but distant enough that he has nothing to fear from them making a connection, putting 2+2 together, and instead keep focus on bashing the failures of his successor.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Funny, because Broncos fans apparently think the Pats are the ones who are going all-in for Brady's final years, and they are the ones set up for long-term success:

Bill and The Pats Are Following The Broncos




Yeah, good thing the Broncos aren't in that situation at all.

There's not a single mention in that entire thread of Peyton being a factor in Elway's decision-making process.

Well, let's just say most Broncos fans seem to be taking advantage of the legal weed

Although truth be told, I don't think the Broncos have gone totally all-in. I just think they've tried to maximize this window with Peyton, but they haven't started trading top draft picks for players or anything like that. The Talib contract looks a lot more reasonable after the details came out.

I think Elway has done a solid job and while he may not be the best GM in the business, he's certainly nowhere near the worst. I also think he's still learning quite a bit and is only going to get better. I appreciate that he grinds, he goes through the tape, he watches the prospects himself. He is a solid GM, but I think he will get even better.

 

[Galeb]

What if Elway isn't planning to stick around for the long term? He became GM of a team with a bunch of talented guys on rookie contracts. He then splurges on free agents saying to hell with the future and figures he's got a good shot of winning a ring as a GM. When it comes time to pay the piper, he skips town and it becomes another GM's problem. I'm not saying this is the case, but that is how it looks to me.

 

[Gumby]

On the JE as a GM:

There are essentially two philosophies on being GM and cap mgmt. The BB-steady always competitive model and the 'wave-model'. If I had to guess I would say that about 29 out of 32 teams use the wave model (spend-splurge for a window of opportunity and then pay the price to rebuild).

Putting GMs in the perspective of the 'what-have-you-done-for-me-lately' NFL, ... how many coaches-GMs actually think their owner has the intestinal fortitude to keep them hired for 5 straight years (unless they have a SB trophy on the wall)? Other than Squeelers, Gints and Kraft [post-2001; and if BB hadn't won 3 would he still get that benefit of the doubt ???], teams don't hold the course steady enough for a GM to believe anything else then that "buy-now" is the BEST Course of Action FOR HIS PERSONAL SURVIVAL?

From that perspective; measuring JE versus his 29 "buy-now" peers; he has done a pretty good job at marketing his team and bringing in quality FAs .

I think the draft-talent-evaluation is a good critique point (that he has not done so well). But you can still do well at the draft (unless you are trading those picks for high-$ FAs) regardless of how you spend FA $s. The one does not have anything to do with the other.

 

[Gumby]

As to the cap-hell pieces of argument:

I think Miquel raises valid critques on those who throw the cap-hell accusation around pretty loosely. But also I think Miquel is being a little bit 20-20 hindsight and leaving pieces out too... call it "almost-cap-hell" if you like, but the DOLTS WENT THERE.

The Dolts didnt go into complete "cap hell" in good part because of the uncapped year. That gave them a rubber-eraser to the impacts of their cap-mismanagement.

And I am not sure exactly what you call a 2-14 record that was equally a part of that 'almost cap-hell' and an equal part of escaping it.

They didnt have the depth to maintain a winning program without Pay-me because of the cap expenditures (mostly on Pay-me but also on 1-2 other hi $ players). It can be legitimately argued that they might have been 8-8 or less that year WITH PAY-ME healthy because they had no depth.

That they went all in on 'suck-for-luck' improved their draft position immeasurably and gave them the pieces to move back out of 'almost-cap-hell' the following 2 years.

But also in the end the NFL has made teams (and BB) re-evaluate their feelings that they need to adhere to cap-mgmt tightly. During the 2000s while BB was managing a tight ship and prepared to dominate when the bills all came due to everyone else; the NFL looked across the landscape and essentially kept saying 'you have to keep to the cap' .... 'oh but look at all those guys affected.'..... 'oh we'll raise the cap by $10M this year to help out those poor fellows and keep it competitive.'*

So all these poorly managed teams kept getting passes on their mis-management. Meanwhile BB's competitive advantage never materialized and he missed out on some good FAs in the mean-time.

I think you are now seeing an old-wiser BB knowing that the Revis-Browner deals will get accomodated by a 'rising tide floating all boats' later on down the line. IMO it is NOT that he is operating 'against his philosophy'; rather that his philosophy has matured and he knows when to apply the 'exception to the rule.'


* Yes, I know this is in large part determined by media contracts, but there is NFL-front office decisions involved too.

 

[MassPats38]

The Dolts didnt go into complete "cap hell" in good part because of the uncapped year. That gave them a rubber-eraser to the impacts of their cap-mismanagement.

And I am not sure exactly what you call a 2-14 record that was equally a part of that 'almost cap-hell' and an equal part of escaping it.

The Colts went 10-6, 2-14, 11-5 and 11-5. The Dolts handed out plenty of contracts both before and after Manning left, and Luck did not single-handedly bring 9 wins to the team with his arrival. The team had talent before and after Manning left. The overhaul post-Manning appeared to be more philosophical than by necessity. The team had been built around Manning and his skills for years, and Luck was not the same type of QB. I suspect Manning had say on the offensive pieces, so the team no longer had to placate him either.

As for the 2-14 year, you can add a credible backup QB without breaking the bank, but the Colts elected not to do so. I expect Manning did not want a credible backup threatening his position at any point, thus the illustrious Painter was the option.

I read salary cap hell as the inability to bring in new talent due to lack of available cap space and the inability to retain key players because of the availability of better offers in free agency. The teams that fit that description do not have one year turn-arounds, but rather suffer through many lousy years trying to recover. Raiders, Niners, etc. are good examples. There was only so much the uncapped year would heal.

 

[Miguel]

I think Miquel raises valid critques on those who throw the cap-hell accusation around pretty loosely. But also I think Miquel is being a little bit 20-20 hindsight and leaving pieces out too... call it "almost-cap-hell" if you like, but the DOLTS WENT THERE..

My name is Miguel It is clearly on the screen.

Let's accept your argument that the Colts went to cap hell. BTW, I don't. The argument that was made before 2006 was that the Colts' cap strategy would prevent them from ever winning a Super Bowl, let alone make it twice to the Super Bowl in 4 years.