Jets window is now shut

[Ron Sellers]

According to these pages:

New York Jets Salary Cap - 2011

New York Jets - Free Agents

Jets have around $118M in salary cap charges tied up with their top 51. Hard to know for certain just how much cutting will need to be done without a CBA negotiated yet, but the 2009 cap was $128M, and the Jets will only have their 1st and 3rd to find impact guys in the first 3 rounds.

The above cap charge doesn't include their free agent list, which is:

Unrestricted
Shaun Ellis
Steve Weatherford
Brodney Pool
Tony Richardson
Braylon Edwards
Wayne Hunter
Trevor Pryce

Restricted
David Harris
Robert Turner
Nick Folk
Antonio Cromartie
Lance Laury
Santonio Holmes
Eric Smith
Brad Smith
James Ihedigbo
Drew Coleman
Kellen Clemens

Exclusive Rights
Marquice Cole
Michael Turkovich
Marcus Dixon

I'm going to take that list of restricted and unrestricted free agents with a grain of salt. For example Holmes has five years of service. The rules for amount of service in order to become a free agent were different last year; it was written into the previous CBA to be a one-time thing in the event of an uncapped year. I highly doubt we will see those same terms and conditions for free agency again in 2011.

Holmes will either be an unrestricted free agent, or we will have no free agency at all; I cannot envision a scenario where the NFLPA will go forward with the same rules of free agency as there was in 2010.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I'm going to take that list of restricted and unrestricted free agents with a grain of salt. For example Holmes has five years of service. The rules for amount of service in order to become a free agent were different last year; it was written into the previous CBA to be a one-time thing in the event of an uncapped year. I highly doubt we will see those same terms and conditions for free agency again in 2011.

Holmes will either be an unrestricted free agent, or we will have no free agency at all; I cannot envision a scenario where the NFLPA will go forward with the same rules of free agency as there was in 2010.

Fair enough. The list comes from a Jets fan, so shouldn't be considered all that accurate or reliable

 

[Lakeville Glenn]

I love the salary cap!

(and is only one reason why the NFL is so much better than MLB)

 

[condon84]

"Ridiculous premise of a thread. The Jets have the two most important things that you need to be successful in this league: a good HC, and a good QB."

......and that leaves the New England Patriots with WHAT in comparison?

Is this a trick question?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I don't think anyone would argue that we aren't in way better shape cap-wise. But the numbers that you're citing assume that a number of Jets won't be cut; Tomlinson, Jenkins, and others won't be back, and that will free up a little space. Won't be much, and they'll be paper-thin, but it isn't quite as bleak as you portray it.

All that I was saying, though, is that they won't be affected by the rule that says that the final 4 can't sign more FAs than they lose--if that rule is even still in effect--since they'll be losing a ton of FAs in the first place due to the very mass exodus that you're talking about.

That response reminds me a little of the JET fans response over on the football futures thread where a patsfan had to remind him that every player you cut to save a little cap (considering some still have dead cap and others are still better than UDFA's) has to be replaced on the roster... And with two picks in the top 100 that will take some financial as well as scheme creativity. Heck, if they finally cut Gholston it will save...$400K, although he could probably be replaced on the inactive list for that... If they cut Taylor and LdT and Woody what they gonna replace them with? Two of their 2010 draft picks targeted for those positions didn't pan out. To replace them with just reasonable facimilies of those players in 2010 will likely cost as much as retaining them...

 

[Keyser Söze]

Taylor Price had the fastest 40 time at the 2010 combine. The kid can fly. Don't hope for a WR in the draft - hope that TP is the real deal. Since BB let Moss go in mid-season, my guess is that he thinks TP is the real deal (since TP was drafted to replace Moss).

Someone lied to you

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

To answer the question regarding the Jets draft they have

own 1st #30
own 3rd
own 4th
own 5th
own 6th
Arz 7th

Our southern fish loving division rivals are also without a 2nd round pick, Dolphins have

own 1st #15
own 3rd
own 4th
own 5th
own 7th
Jax 7th

The Toronto Bills have their full slate of 7 plus the Seahawks 4th.

 

[NEBG]

they back in again in 2010 if I'm not mistaken.

No, you're mistaken. The week they clinched, they happened to lose to Chicago, but Jax lost too. But, the following week the Jets stomped Buffalo in a game that didn't matter. But, had it mattered, the Jets would have clinched with that being their 11th win. Kind of hard to say a team backed in when they won 11 games and won the final game of the season. I think the only time that a team with 11 wins did not get in was when the Pats and Dolphins tied at 11 for the division and Pats got screwed with tie breakers. Crazy that they did not get in that year. 11 really should guarantee a spot.

 

[malenurse2010]

I couldn't help but lmao when I listened to this. I know there needs to be some element of koolaid drinking when your the announcer but the Jets are on the way up, as a young team? Thats precious and utterly void of any grasp of reality.

Video: 'Outside the Lines' on Jets' season - AFC East Blog - ESPN

 

[goheels22002]

To answer the question regarding the Jets draft they have

own 1st #30
own 3rd
own 4th
own 5th
own 6th
Arz 7th

Our southern fish loving division rivals are also without a 2nd round pick, Dolphins have

own 1st #15
own 3rd
own 4th
own 5th
own 7th
Jax 7th

The Toronto Bills have their full slate of 7 plus the Seahawks 4th.

This is interesting. If my calculation is correct, by the time the rest of the AFC East has selected a total of 7 players in the first three rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft, the Patriots will have selected 6. Maybe the Pats ought to trade all of its 2nds and 3rds to Buffalo for their #1 and get three of the top 28 and call it a day.

 

[Sciz]

This is interesting. If my calculation is correct, by the time the rest of the AFC East has selected a total of 7 players in the first three rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft, the Patriots will have selected 6. Maybe the Pats ought to trade all of its 2nds and 3rds to Buffalo for their #1 and get three of the top 28 and call it a day.

Yep. Pending trades, the Pats will make their 6th pick just before the Jets' 2nd and a little after the Phins' 2nd.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

i don't think they ever had a window. soj!!

 

[convertedpatsfan]

To answer the question regarding the Jets draft they have

own 1st #30
own 3rd
own 4th
own 5th
own 6th
Arz 7th

Our southern fish loving division rivals are also without a 2nd round pick, Dolphins have

own 1st #15
own 3rd
own 4th
own 5th
own 7th
Jax 7th

The Toronto Bills have their full slate of 7 plus the Seahawks 4th.

Thanks for the info.

Man I hope the Bills don't come to Toronto. We have enough crappy teams here already. Between the Leafs, Raptors, and Jays, how much sucking can one city take?

Oh...sorry Cleveland.

 

[BradyFTW!]

That response reminds me a little of the JET fans response over on the football futures thread where a patsfan had to remind him that every player you cut to save a little cap (considering some still have dead cap and others are still better than UDFA's) has to be replaced on the roster... And with two picks in the top 100 that will take some financial as well as scheme creativity. Heck, if they finally cut Gholston it will save...$400K, although he could probably be replaced on the inactive list for that... If they cut Taylor and LdT and Woody what they gonna replace them with? Two of their 2010 draft picks targeted for those positions didn't pan out. To replace them with just reasonable facimilies of those players in 2010 will likely cost as much as retaining them...

Since you apparently missed the relevant portion of the post that you were quoting, I'll throw it out there again: Won't be much, and they'll be paper-thin, but it isn't quite as bleak as you portray it.

Sure, they have to be replaced, but they can (and will be) replaced by players that make significantly less than their cap savings. The Jets will save $4.6 million by cutting Kris Jenkins, and they've already replaced him. There's another $3.7 million of savings in cutting Bryan Thomas, $2.5 million for cutting Tomlinson, and $2.25 million for cutting Taylor. Thomas was the only one of those guys who was contributing above JAG level by the end of the season. If they cut Woody, they'll presumably roll the dice with Ducasse, much like they did last year when they cut Faneca. It will hurt them on the field, sure, but re: the cap it is what it is.

As I said, it isn't a magic bullet for their cap problems, but it will help. They're a D+ instead of a D-, if you will.

 

[Rob0729]

Sure, they have to be replaced, but they can (and will be) replaced by players that make significantly less than their cap savings. The Jets will save $4.6 million by cutting Kris Jenkins, and they've already replaced him. There's another $3.7 million of savings in cutting Bryan Thomas, $2.5 million for cutting Tomlinson, and $2.25 million for cutting Taylor. Thomas was the only one of those guys who was contributing above JAG level by the end of the season. If they cut Woody, they'll presumably roll the dice with Ducasse, much like they did last year when they cut Faneca. It will hurt them on the field, sure, but re: the cap it is what it is.

As I said, it isn't a magic bullet for their cap problems, but it will help.

The Jets should cut bait with Jenkins, but I don't think they will. They sorely missed him on passing downs this year and they are going to hold out any hope that he will return close to what he was before his first ACL tear in the 2009 season. The guy who replaced him has done a great job against the run, but is a fraction of the player Jenkins is (when healthy) on passing downs.

The thing is the other guys may be a wash. It will probably cost the Jets almost as much to replace guys like Thomas, Taylor, and Tomlinson with similiar quality players. Thomas was a starter at OLB and $3.7 million is middle of the road money. Even for a change of pace back, $2.5 million isn't a huge amount of money (and can the Jets really rely on McKnight to replace Tomlinson and Greene to be their full time lead back?). $2.25 million is also not a huge amount for a rotation OLB either.

Problem also is that they have a lot of big name starters who they have to resign who eat up the savings from cutting all those guys before you even start to think to replace the "JAGs".

 

[Rob0729]

Interesting fact I just found out. Mark Sanchez's 2011 cap hit is $4.5 million higher than Tom Brady's 2011 cap hit. Sanchez's cap hit is $17.7 million and Brady's is $13.2 million. Granted Sanchez has a huge base salary this year ($14.7 million) which part may be able to be converted to a bonus depending on the new CBA rules and spread out that money into future years.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Interesting fact I just found out. Mark Sanchez's 2011 cap hit is $4.5 million higher than Tom Brady's 2011 cap hit. Sanchez's cap hit is $17.7 million and Brady's is $13.2 million. Granted Sanchez has a huge base salary this year ($14.7 million) which part may be able to be converted to a bonus depending on the new CBA rules and spread out that money into future years.

No question that Tanny will make such changes to free up more cap space than it presently seems. JETS will still have problems with their aged team and resigning their UFAs/RFAs but not as much as it appears now.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

More complete analysis of the first three rounds:

3 Bills 1st pick
15 Miami 1st pick
17 NE 1st pick (from Oakland)
28 NE 2nd pick (own 1st round pick)
30 Jets 1st pick
33 NE 3rd pick (from Carolina)
37 Bills 2nd pick
60 NE 4th pick (own second round pick)
67 Bills 3rd pick
72 NE 5th pick (from Vikings)
79 Dolphins 2nd pick (3rd round)
92 NE 6th pick (own 3rd round )
94 Jets 2nd pick (3rd round)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The Jets should cut bait with Jenkins, but I don't think they will. They sorely missed him on passing downs this year and they are going to hold out any hope that he will return close to what he was before his first ACL tear in the 2009 season. The guy who replaced him has done a great job against the run, but is a fraction of the player Jenkins is (when healthy) on passing downs.

The thing is the other guys may be a wash. It will probably cost the Jets almost as much to replace guys like Thomas, Taylor, and Tomlinson with similiar quality players. Thomas was a starter at OLB and $3.7 million is middle of the road money. Even for a change of pace back, $2.5 million isn't a huge amount of money (and can the Jets really rely on McKnight to replace Tomlinson and Greene to be their full time lead back?). $2.25 million is also not a huge amount for a rotation OLB either.

Problem also is that they have a lot of big name starters who they have to resign who eat up the savings from cutting all those guys before you even start to think to replace the "JAGs".

Exactly. So even if Tanny lops $20M off that cap committment by restructuring Sanchize and cutting players like Woody and Taylor and LdT, they have to replace 8-10 starters via extension or FA or draft (or hope someone already behind them on the roster can and then they have to be replaced) at fairly expensive positions (ILB, #1WR, #2CB, #2WR, OLB, OLB/DE, #1-2RB, explosive KR) while adding another 20 or so bodies to the roster to account for the 80 or so players most teams carry over the course of a season (that 51 they list on the JETS cap site already includes a high percentage of PS and futures and back of the roster players...).

Having $30M in cap space when you need to replace several starters and 20 plus backup or depth players isn't a lot of cap space...let alone when you only have 2 top 100 draft picks in a shallow draft. You can get creative if you have the $$$ to shell out in bonus (cash over cap that gets amortized) but they are already due to pay Revis an $18M option bonus in 2011 and Mangold almost $10M in supercede bonus and if they restructure Sanchize he will get a double digit bonus via conversion and with PSL sales lagging not sure how many more double digit signing bonuses they can manage with $40M due to just those 3 existing players...

The Colts are in a similar predicament with the Manning deal. They are asking him to take less up front so they can afford to persue some impact FA additions, something Polian was always reluctant to do because of the cash crunch created by Peyton's last bonus heavy deal on top of the top heavy offense he was maintaining for him, because the draft alone just ain't cutting it in Indy these days on either side of the ball and they made some heavy investments on defense that aren't panning out and they don't have a lot of time for draft development left in Peyton's legit extension window.

And like Bill says, if you're not getting better you're getting worse because your competitors are working on getting better. We're their competition and with only 2-3 potential holes to fill via extension, FA and the draft we have a sufficient cap, cash and draft picks with which to potentially get better.

 

[UofApatsfan]

David Harris franchise tag, that basically answers what NY will do with its most important FA target
Source: New York Jets to use franchise tag on LB David Harris - ESPN New York

As for this thread, it's ridiculous to say "their window is shut". Yes, they have a lot of question marks, but it's time to recognize the fact Rex Ryan is a damn good coach who knows how to get his team to win in spite of major holes. The issues they'll face next year won't be a whole lot worse than the issues they faced this year.

With Holmes and Edwards, it all depends on Sanchez progressing. They're likely keeping one of the two. Given what he's being paid, Sanchez should be able to take the one they keep w/ Cotchery and a good receiving tight end and give the Jets a good passing game.

Their offensive line will remain good. They'll still have Mangold, D'Brick and Moore. How good their O-line is depends on what Ducasse is after a year of sitting and if Slauson can build on his first season as a starter. Again, not having a veteran at RT is an issue depending on how well Sanchez plays.

RB is a position where you can always find cheap talent, so if they have to cut LT it's a non issue.

Losing Cromartie also isn't a big deal assuming Revis is back healthy. Poole and Eric Smith won't be expensive for the Jets to resign, if they are both back w/ a healthy Leonhard they don't suffer a downgrade at safety. Here, a lot depends on Wilson's progression.

Their front 7 is what might become a major weakness with age and free agency and is the area where they might have to rebuild. Still, their front 7 was below average last year and Ryan was able to scheme around it.



An implosion for them might be in the cards if Ducasse, Sanchez, Wilson, Greene, McKnight etc. all don't progress or regress, but the Jets with the right moves and progress from some young guys drafted high are a threat next year.