pdangle
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2008
- Messages
- 1,074
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- 613
Favorites usually move higher, later in the week. But you'll also have large NY money pulling it the other way. And I guess most people still think these are the Jets of last year, and will play the Jets, but for evey ten of them there will be sharp capper betting 10x the other way.
It'll be interesting to see where the number lands. But no matter where, it looks good for our overall chances, -6.5 or -9.5, to get a W. I think in last year's playoffs we were -7. Interestingly, concerning some previous posts about motivation for each team going in; last year's playoff and last game between the teams, I actually pegged the Jets as more motivated/ready-to-play after that embarrassing mid season shellacking. That and it's tough anyway to win two in a row, especially against cagey adaptive veterans, injury free and peaking to boot.
On the other hand, I had a bad feeling our young pats might start reading their 14-2 press clippings during their week off, and even start thinking all those turnovers they recovered were a god given right. So for those and other reasons, I begrudgingly took the Jets to cover, and was pissed to the bank.
Strangely, the motivational factors where completely reversed going into the previous matchup (our big blowout win). With the Jets talking smack and literally preening themselves while simultaneously disrespecting the Pats in the media, while we, the better team IMO (but unknown to most), lay at home, in the weeds ready to throw a beatin' to remember on them, ...and after a loss to them few weeks back, so division title hopes pushing factor as well) That, not coincidentally, was my favorite pick last year. I took the alternate line of -10 (from -3 I think) and got whopping -200 or 2-1 payback on top of living a happy week.
Anyway, for his game, I think motivational effects are a wash. Pats have last year to avenge. For Jets, loss could end their season. Big rivalry, no surprises, yada, yada. Both team are equally pumped starting this game. The difference this year IMO, is skill level. Last year we were more closely matched, and this year we are superior. Significant roster turnover, youthful improvement, decline, important injuries, and returnees all factor in there. That Mangold injury must be especially worrisome for the Beans, he can't be fully effective right? That OL is a mess too, won't help there. That and I keep waiting for Sanchez to have a 7 INT game. Oh yes, they'll try to confuse Brady, take away one option with Revis, compress the field, but this time our matchups are so favorable everywhere else, it won't matter. I hope Brady spends less time trying to unravel the defensive disguises and just picks one at the line and hammers it in, and lets the talent take its course. The Jet's are all bravado right now. They have an doubt right now. Everywhere. I think the 9.0 line is right, and I see it playing out this way, 1) Jets confuse Brady, pull their OL together, and put up a few points. This how it starts no matter what. Tight. Then either we practically beat ourselves and win only by 3 to 7 and fail to cover. , or what I feel is more likely to occur, we slowly begin to realize we're the much better team, and we start taking it to them, winning in a route by 13+. They're gonna try like heck not to let us get that loving feeling, so they're gonna mix it up and try confuse TB12. It's imperative we let them know it's a different ballgame this year, and raise that doubt, as early as possible. Watch for serious bad blood to erupt if, or more likely, when we start to blow them out. They're gonna be pissed, and things will surely get ugly. Throw the Jet's playoff shannagins from last year into the mix, and we're gonna have a big dance party.
