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Jason Bay revisited

Discussion in 'Red Sox Fan Forum' started by JoeSixPat, Jul 18, 2010.

  1. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    ... as some might recall there was a lot of vigorous debate in Red Sox nation last year when Bay got off to a hot start - on pace to hit 50 home runs and drive in 170 runs - prompting many to want to sign him to a mega contract extension

    at the time many were faulting Theo, though the front office correctly assessed that Bay wasn't a 50/170 guy and shouldn't be paid like one... indeed they felt he was more of a 35/120 guy, and sure enough that's about where he landed

    I'm sure we all would have loved to have those types of numbers on the roster but the front office wasn't about to overpay for Bay

    So fast forward to mid-season 2010, after the Mets dropped a $66 million 4 year contract into his lap ... Mets fans have received a whopping 6 home runs and 44 RBIs for the $16.5 million this season alone - on pace for 11 HRs and 80 RBIs, prompting him to be booed by the hometown fans before the All Star break.

    Now that being said Bay will probably get hot at some point and I'd be surprised if he didn't produce more than his projections at this point - but the point is still the same... the Red Sox were smart not to pay Bay during his hot streak and were wise not to match the overpaid contract offered by the Mets.

    ... all of a sudden David Ortiz's contract doesn't look so bad!

    I guess the bottom line is that Theo and the Sox do make plenty of mistakes but quite often they know what they are doing and are smart enough not to get caught up in streaks and overpay for mediocre talent (well, JD Drew might want to beg to differ with me on that but I digress.)
     
  2. TommyBrady12

    TommyBrady12 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Jason Bay was all about money. When the sox refused to give him the contract that he wanted bay showed it on the field with lazy play. he's no different than Manny IMO. Now that Bay got his contract in NY, he's just sitting back and enjoying the money. Theo made a mistake of trading Manny for Bay, but he was right to let him go. in the end we traded manny and got nothing.
     
  3. captain insano

    captain insano In the Starting Line-Up

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    no he didnt. it was a great trade. one of theos best.
     
  4. chicowalker

    chicowalker Pro Bowl Player

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    OT (sort of): JD Drew is far from mediocre

    re. Manny, not sure what choice people think the sox had. I was in Manny's camp until I saw him playing for the Dodgers and actually hustling. He quit on the team, he hadn't been going all
    out for a long time, and his teammates wanted him gone. Getting Bay for him was a good deal.

    Edit: btw, we didn't get nothing for Manny. I think bay netted the Sox Ranaudo and Workman. We'll see what they turn into
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2010
  5. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Bay plays in Citi Field, which ranks 26th out of the 30 parks in the majors, when it comes to home runs. I'm not sure why he wanted to sign on and play there. It's a tough park for power hitters. It really affected David Wright's power numbers last year. Wright actually changed his entire stance because of it. I think Bay would probably be producing like normal were he still in Fenway.

    2010 MLB Park Factors - Home Runs - Major League Baseball - ESPN
     
  6. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I agree that Bay would probably be producing closer to his typical average year.

    That's part of the the point though - that the Mets overpaid in a very big way for a guy with good Fenway HR numbers that could be expected drop signficantly at Citi Field.

    He'll finish with a good number of hits, a few more doubles and triples than in past seasons, but are paying him as a high producing Power guy who lacks power numbers.
     
  7. chicowalker

    chicowalker Pro Bowl Player

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    if they use that reasoning, any time they're competing for players, they'll lose out on offensive players and overpay pitchers

    Bay is the same player -- it's the park that's causing different stats

    (This assumes parks don't impact players differently -- probably not the case, but a decent assumption until shown otherwise, I think)
     
  8. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Omar Minaya. That's all I've got to say. :D
     
  9. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Even if the park and only the park is to blame for Bay's subpar first half (and I don't think it is) you still have to scratch your head at the signing of Bay in particular and the huge contract they signed him to...

    In effect since Bay's power is neutered by the park you're paying him like a HR hitter when you could get the same production out of a singles and doubles guy

    Indeed a power hitter who lacks the power to get the ball out of the field leaves himself vulnerable to a lot of flyball outs.

    They could have paid much less for a guy who will get the same amount of hits and hopefully RBIs who might not have as much power than Bay, but of course that's irrelevant in that park.

    I don't think Bay's power numbers were particularly impressive in other stadiums either so I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the Citi Field factor - but to Bay's credit his hits have come up and he'll finish with a typical season on the non power numbers.
     
  10. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Omar Minaya.
     
  11. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    By the way - love your screen name... that brings back some memories watching Chico Walker play at Pawtucket

    His minor league numbers never quite translated to Boston and the big leagues but he put up some decent numbers for the Pawsox and was one of my favorite players to watch at bat (always seemed to get the big hit at the games I was at anyways!)
     
  12. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Struggling New York Mets slugger Jason Bay gets few days off - ESPN New York

     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2011
  13. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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  14. TheSolderKing

    TheSolderKing In the Starting Line-Up

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    I liked Bay... however things worked out for the best imo. Bay to crawford in speed and offense and as a LF cannot compete.


    Bay had 1 thing going for him and it was his Fenway swing he was a damn good offensive player in his time. Who is to say JB would have su cked if he stayed a Sox player? All I am saying is the butterfly effect is in play so it is unintelligent to assume J Bay would have same struggles that we saw him encounter as a MET; I doubt it would have happened.

    In closing...

    Speed, Defense and offensively we have the better player in Crawford. Sure Craw is not a 30HR guy, but his skill sets help compensate for the lack of 30 HR power. I figure in time Crawford will learn like Ortiz to go to the opposite field more. Adrian Gonzalez has a profound influence on our hitters and especially leftie batters :cool:
     
  15. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Baseball is a streaky sport... who would have thought that given the Sox's start they'd be in first place as of today by 2 games with the best winning percentage in the AL, and third best in MLB?

    But Bay is REALLY streaky - so I know what his coach is saying.

    Still, seems to me Bay could benefit from working on his timing in the minor leagues - my guess is the coach is concerned that should he be unable to snap out of it there, his career may be over... better to let him snap out of it in the Majors and maybe get his mojo back.
     
  16. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I've been wondering if Gonzalez has had a massive influence on Big Papi. He's hitting balls to the opposite field damn it!! His swing looks great and he seems to be more patient at the plate, similar to the way A-Gone sticks to his plan and waits for the pitch he wants. Even Ellsbury is showing the same form.

    I believe Gonzalez is having a massive impact on the Red Sox, perhaps greater than we can imagine.
     
  17. captain insano

    captain insano In the Starting Line-Up

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    its not just fenway bay is missing its hitting in the redsox line up. the mets line up cant compare to the redsox line up the last couple of years.
     

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