The Case Against Laurinaitis
I've been watching JL for a while, now, because a lot of mocks have us taking him. I urgently, desperately want the Pats to draft help at ILB, but frankly, I dont think this is a kid that BB would tap.
The case FOR -
Size: He passes the visual test. He's got the size, at least.
Need: The risk that we lose both Bruschi and Seau in the offseason is VERY real. Especially if the team goes 19-0 and wins the SB. What better way to call it a career?
Supply: There aren't a lot of warm bodies in FA, few on the shadow roster. Other than Alexander, the next most promising way Corey Mays, an undrafted player who was signed off waivers by the Bengals. Our depth at the position is Thomas and Vrabel, both of whom are best suited to play OLB. Truly, the cupboard is bare.
Pass Coverage: I've seen plenty of film of him in pass coverage, and he looks solid. Great lateral agility and closing speed.
The case AGAINST -
Productivity: He's a one-year starter, after playing behind Hawk and Schlegel. Even so, he's an underclassman.
Versatility: On film, he looks solid in pass coverage, but questionable in traffic. In the 4-3, he's free to pursue the ball carrier. In a 3-4, he'll need to take on and beat an OG. Has skills in open space, but I would not call him versatile.
Smarts: For what we'd need from him, he's a project. He'll need to be able to diagnose the offense and call the plays. I saw nothing in terms of film room smarts that gives me confidence he can do it. JL might become that, with time, but he's not there now (even if it's just a question of experience)... and that means BB wont see him as top-10 value. BB will choose a LB as much on personality as anything else, and wants his ILB to be a coach on the field-- "bookish"-- LB moreso than any other position because these are the players he wraps his entire scheme around.
Leadership: From his youtube interviews with ESPN, JL came across as young and green. If we use Vrabel and Brady and Mankins as role models for what the team looks to draft-- these are smart, witty, grounded individuals who take their work very seriously and who others can look to for direction. That's not the vibe I get from JL, at all. Can eat Humble Pie without exploding in a very Ryan Leaf kind of a way? I'm not sure he's quite that mature. That is a key differentiator between JL and (for example) Vilma, who BB did like coming out of school.
I rate Carpenter ahead of Laurinaitis as a prospect for the Pats, based on the different ways he was used in college (pass rush, pass coverage, run stop) and his ability to control the LOS.
I rate Posluszny ahead of Laurinaitis as a prospect for the Pats, in terms of leadership, experience, as a student of the game, and play against the run... in most dimensions, Pos is way way ahead. The fact that BB passed on him to take the S.F. trade either means he had big plans for the 2008 draft, or he just want impressed with what seems (to me) to be a far better fit.
And, since he was mentioned in the thread, there is very little about Karlos Dansby that the Pats are likely to find interesting. In particular, he doesn't have any experience in the 3-4. And he's a punk. I think Chad Brown is more likely to play ILB for us next year than Dansby... so there you go.
The guy I was starting to warm to as a Pats fit was Chris Long. He is someone who you would associate with the words "physical", "versatile", "leadership". But with SF on their winning trend, Long seems most likely out of reach-- unless he bombs at the combine.
Another guy who I like, on film, is Derek Harvey from Florida. Watch film on the Gators and look for #91 coming off the edge. Looks like Vrabel. I dont know a lot about him, but I expect that BB will get the inside scoop from his buddy Urban Meyer. And the other OSU LB prospect - Gholston - this kid is flying up draft charts, to the very top. I haven't seen enough of him to have an opinion; I am slightly skeptical but very intruiged. Harvey and Gholston are both natural OLB talents... and we happen to be stacked at OLB.
Unless it's Maualuga (I haven't scouted him in any depth, yet), I'm more prepared to believe that the SF pick will go to help backfill Asante and Wilson: either Jenkins or Jenkins.
