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Jaguars-Pats point spread and early trend...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by GameDay, Jan 7, 2008.

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  1. GameDay

    GameDay Rookie

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    Pats fans do not care to win by 1 or 14 points. But there is an interesting trend...
    - Early sharp money comes in on the Pats, giving 11 points, then shifted to ~ 11.5 or 12 or so for Jaguars action.
    - Some people commented that it should have been as much as 14 pts (based on Pats-Jaguars relative strength) but after recent close games by the Pats (2-6 ATS in the last 8 games), they set the line closer to get more action.
    - Public comes in later heavy on the Jaguars, and this trend is expected to continue, which...
    - Hopefully will be enough to move the line even more toward the Jaguars, inflating their heads a little and dulling their sense of disrespected.
    (This is not for those who do not believe players pay notice to the point spread and feel disrespected; nor for those who do not think that it matters if players feel insulted or not... Also, privately I heard that the house is happy to see more Jags money. One said that it would be like Pats-Steelers game and we know how that turned out).
  2. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    some players certainly pay attention to this stuff. but, I doubt that the move from 11 to 12 or from 12 to 10 or whatever is significant to players
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2008
  3. GameDay

    GameDay Rookie

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    It's not the absolute number. It's the trend. If they feel the movement is toward them, they may feel better? I think it may get to 10 at most. Doubtful if 9.5.
  4. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    yeah, I just dont know if these guys pay close enough attention for the trend to matter. even some people who bet on sports a fair amount don't bother to pay a lot attention to the movement.

    and sometimes the movement is more subtle, going from -10.5 +100 to -10.5 -125 or something, if the bookies dont want to cross the 10.

    and then, there are so many sources for lines now that the game may be -10.5 somewhere and -11.5 somewhere else, with the same juice.
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2008
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