Jacoby Ellsbury

[Synovia]

You can bring him up as many times as you want. Most people thought he was vastly overpaid (same goes for Crawford, btw), and while he was a year older, he also had an extra year of good performance under his belt.

Jason Werth had put up three 5 WAR years.

Carl Crawford had put up a 7 WAR year, a 5 WAR year, and prior to that, 2 years of WAR below 3.

Jacoby Ellsbury has put up 1 5 WAR year, and is on pace to put up an 8 WAR year. If he continues to hit like this, he will have a better track record than either one.


As to Crawford and Werth being vastly overpaid, almost every FA is. Thats how the market works.

 

[chicowalker]

Jason Werth had put up three 5 WAR years.

Carl Crawford had put up a 7 WAR year, a 5 WAR year, and prior to that, 2 years of WAR below 3.

Jacoby Ellsbury has put up 1 5 WAR year, and is on pace to put up an 8 WAR year. If he continues to hit like this, he will have a better track record than either one.

As to Crawford and Werth being vastly overpaid, almost every FA is. Thats how the market works.

any evidence that the market pays based on WAR?

 

[chicowalker]

What exactly does "best player in the game" mean. You're going to have to define that.

I woudl argue that positional scarcity plays a huge part of that. Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the game, but hes probably not the best PLAYER.

And yet Bautista has the highest WAR, doesn't he?

I don't think of him as best player in the game, but that may be some residual skepticism of his year last season. His hitting has been so far above everybody else this year that he probably has been the best player, despite not being a great fielder and not having any speed.

We're actually at a weird time in baseball right now w/regard to that question, I think.

Pujols would have been my answer in years past, but his performance has suffered. Hamilton hasn't been able to stay healthy and dominate. ARod started to decline a few years ago. Tulowitzki, Hanley, cano and other (relatively) younger guys haven't really ascended to positions of dominance.

I'm honestly not sure who I think the best player is right now -- good question. The stats I tend to look at are OPS and OPS+ first, then some ability to actually play and produce (i.e., actual production, not just rates).

Fielding definitely matters, too, as does speed -- both of which obviously help somebody like Ellsbury (though he's still not as good a fielder as he should be, imo).

I don't think positional scarcity is meaningless. But at the same time, I don't think it's the defining point. If you're a 850 OPS player, all else equal (fielding and speed), I'll take the 1000 OPS player as "better," even if there's a 975 OPS player and a few 950 OPS players at the same position as the 1000 OPS guy and nobody better than 750 at the other position.

Could the 850 OPS player be more "valuable"? From the perspective of team composition, sure -- because the fall-off is greater to the next guy. But I think valuable is different from better. (I also might take the 850 OPS guy over the 1000 OPS guy because of contracts, for an analogy -- an 850 OPS guy at $1mm may be a better value than the 1000 OPS guy at $20mm --doesn't make him better, though.)

 

[Synovia]

And yet Bautista has the highest WAR, doesn't he?

His and Pedroia's are essentially the same.

Could the 850 OPS player be more "valuable"? From the perspective of team composition, sure -- because the fall-off is greater to the next guy. But I think valuable is different from better. (I also might take the 850 OPS guy over the 1000 OPS guy because of contracts, for an analogy -- an 850 OPS guy at $1mm may be a better value than the 1000 OPS guy at $20mm --doesn't make him better, though.)

I'm not sure if I understand you correctly, but what I"m saying is that an 850 OPS CF is a better player than a 900OPs 1B, and by a wide margin. Any time you can find a player who can hit, and can play an elite defensive position, Its hugely valuable.

If you believe the Sabre crowd (and I do), a defensively average SS or CF is worth 10 runs more than an average defensive 1B. Thats mostly offset by the fact that an average 1B hits about 10 runs better than an average SS. Now, we can argue about what the exact numbers should be, but I don't think there's any way to argue that defense and positional scarcity are just as important as extra points of OPS. If that wasn't the case, we'd have guys who look like David Ortiz playing almost every position.


Jose Bautista is an awesome hitter, but your average corner OF has an OPS in the 820 range, and Bautista isn't an average corner OF, hes a bad one. His 1090 OPS is awesome, but every time he can't get to a ball because he has terrible range costs the jays runs. And those runs offset some of the value he provides with his bat.

Ellsbury, on the other hand, plays a position where almost everyone (except Granderson, who isn't nearly the defender Ellsburry is) has a noodle bat. He plays it really well too, and that helps teams win. His defense has been about 8 runs (and will be about 10 by the end of the season) better than the average CF. What that means is that Ellsbury, with his .880 or so OPS, provides just as much towards winning as an average defender in RF who has a 1.000 OPS.


Is he as good as Bautista? No, but if his performance this year is what hes going to continue doing, he absolutely is one of the best players in the game. There are 5 CF in the game who can hit right now (Granderson, Ellsbury, Kemp, Victorino, and McCuthen). Kemp and Granderson are the best hitters, but they're worth the least because they both are bad defenders and should probably be playing on the corners. Granderson and Victorino are both on the wrong side of 30.

 

[chicowalker]

...I'm not sure if I understand you correctly, but what I"m saying is that an 850 OPS CF is a better player than a 900OPs 1B, and by a wide margin. ....

I don't think you do understand me, because I agree.

But if we're talking a 1000 OPS 1B, particularly one who fields the position well, I think it's a different story.

... Any time you can find a player who can hit, and can play an elite defensive position, Its hugely valuable....

Again, I agree.

But as I said in my prior post, I think there is a difference between "more valuable" and "better."

... ...if his performance this year is what hes going to continue doing, he absolutely is one of the best players in the game. ...

Again, I agree -- IF he does it year in year out.

 

[ausbacker]

OK Sox fans, at what point does Ellsbury join and potentially pull away from Gonzalez as team MVP for 2011? He's in ridiculous form right now.

 

[AusPatriot]

Very soon if he continues in the form he is in, but Gonzo has been brilliant all year and with many games to go it will go down to the wire.

 

[ausbacker]

Very soon if he continues in the form he is in, but Gonzo has been brilliant all year and with many games to go it will go down to the wire.

I like the cut of your jib (and username) .

 

[Synovia]

Very soon if he continues in the form he is in, but Gonzo has been brilliant all year and with many games to go it will go down to the wire.

Ellsbury has been a much better player than Gonzalez at this point. People just love those meaningless counting stats though (ooh, shiny, RBIs)



I have no idea what happened to Gonzo's pop. He's had no power since about 3 weeks before the all-star break.

 

[TheSolderKing]

Very soon if he continues in the form he is in, but Gonzo has been brilliant all year and with many games to go it will go down to the wire.

Gonzo's power got Phucked by that homerun derby he is a lesser version, but still producing. That contest messed up his swing right now I say no for Adrian unless he finds his power. Jacoby is the leader now in my book

FYI i am a Gonzo guy to. He is my fav him and petey

 

[ausbacker]

Gonzo's power got Phucked by that homerun derby he is a lesser version, but still producing. That contest messed up his swing right now I say no for Adrian unless he finds his power. Jacoby is the leader now in my book

FYI i am a Gonzo guy to. He is my fav him and petey

It does seem like the HRD stuffed A-Gone's timing.

 

[sportsreport360]

I would love to see Jacoby Ellsbury stay in a Red Sox uniform throughout his career, but I trust Theo Epstein and if for some reason they do let him go, I know the Sox will find a way to give the fans something special in return. As an Ellsbury fan, I certainly would not want him to take less money to stay in Boston because he has given fans at Fenway all we could have wanted and more. Hopefully, if he does leave he gives Red Sox Nation another World Series championship.

 

[Synovia]

It does seem like the HRD stuffed A-Gone's timing.

His numbers were already starting to drop about 2 weeks before the HRD.

He's got some neck problems going on right now, which are probably a better explanation.

 

[Synovia]

You mean, except for those who HAVE accepted extensions that buy out arb years?

Like :
Jason Varitek
Andruw Jones
Carlos Pena
Derek Lowe
Greg Maddux
Rob Nenn
Ryan Madson
Carlos Gonzales
...


And thats just off the top of my head.

Add Jered Weaver (who just signed a 5 year extension) to the list of Boras clients to sign extensions without going to FA.