Jacoby Ellsbury

[The Brandon Five]

When the Sox signed Crawford to that absurd contract, I openly wondered why since they already had a Crawford on the team by way of Jacoby Ellsbury. From what I've read and heard over the years, Ellsbury is the type of player that wants to play out his years till free agency. His having Boras as an agent lends credence to that. Obviously the Sox have a history of locking up players before they hit free agency, but those guys (pedroia, lester, youk) are different animals than Ells is. Lester had cancer, and the latter 2 of high intensity dirt dog guys who love playing in Fenway. Not to say that Ellsbury doesn't like Fenway, but he comes across as more of a delicate soul so to speak. Of the group, he seems like the most likely to seek the largest deal. When he sees Crawford sign for $142 million to play LF, he's got to wonder what he's worth in CF. He's going to be looking for $20 million per I'd think, or $15 million per at a minimum. I don't think the Sox would pay that to two identical OF'ers. They'd probably prefer to invest that in a power bat, corner OF type. You can only have so many $10-20+ million players on your roster. In 2013 I think the higher dollars start to kick in on the other 3 who signed early too. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I'd imagine that the Sox might even consider trading high on Ellsbury this offseason, if they know a long term deal will be difficult. With 2 years of control left they'd get a serious haul I'd think.

A base-stealing, home-run hitting, high BA center fielder with above average range is worth at least $15 million. You would need two players to replace that kind of production.

 

[Real World]

A base-stealing, home-run hitting, high BA center fielder with above average range is worth at least $15 million. You would need two players to replace that kind of production.

No doubt. I agree.

 

[ausbacker]

w/e, I thought 2 something... but anyways my point is we HAVE the $$$ for 2014 to extend Ells. Lackey could probably be traded in 2013 or 2014 and you have to consider that as well/ We have solid finances for 2014

Papi is a WASTE of $$$ in the future. We do NOT need a fixed DH

Papi is big $$$ off books and his time is coming to an end. I offer him 2 yrs MAX if we go over theo should be shot.

You really, really need to chill out when it comes to veteran players and performance TheSolderKing. It's become embarrassing to read your stuff if an athlete is of age.

 

[TheSolderKing]

You really, really need to chill out when it comes to veteran players and performance TheSolderKing. It's become embarrassing to read your stuff if an athlete is of age.

the 1st 6 years would be fantastic... the other 1 or 2 who knows?


are u talking of Papi and how we will give him only 2 yrs at most?

 

[captain insano]

the 1st 6 years would be fantastic... the other 1 or 2 who knows?


are u talking of Papi and how we will give him only 2 yrs at most?

you dont need to chill. just dont take any crap from the dummy down under. he thinks he runs this board.

 

[ausbacker]

the 1st 6 years would be fantastic... the other 1 or 2 who knows?

are u talking of Papi and how we will give him only 2 yrs at most?

Papi's a year to year proposition, 2 years at absolute best for any given contract. He's having a very good season in 2011. Unless you project that to dramatically drop off why tinker with something that isn't problematic?

As for captain insano, he's a little obsessed by me. There's a little latent man love our resident hill billy aches for. Just ignore him.

 

[TheSolderKing]

I Fear we may LOSE him to the Yankee's or whoever. Jacoby will get 18-20 per yr for 7-8 years. Boras doesn't allow the buyout of ARB years. If we want this RARE Talent then we must be RELENTLESS in our Pursuit or we will lose him.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Jacoby is the real deal. IDC if we have to give him the world, but he is worth it. He definately gets more than Crawford $$$ make an 8 year deal. We need this kid in our future. Boras will demand sooooo much, but IDC. I wonder if Boras wants him to hit FA'cy despite a GREAT Sox deal b4 next years offseason when he is a FA

Crawford was a free agent. Ellsbury is not. Look at the deal that Pedroia got, and that was coming OFF an MVP winning season. Ellsbury is still under team control for the next few years. Any extension would have to come at a discount to 'buy off' those control years. Also don't forget that Drew's money is coming off the books so the Sox have a substantial amount of money to play with for a JE extension. You really like the idea of getting rid of players, don't you?

 

[TheSolderKing]

Crawford was a free agent. Ellsbury is not. Look at the deal that Pedroia got, and that was coming OFF an MVP winning season. Ellsbury is still under team control for the next few years. Any extension would have to come at a discount to 'buy off' those control years. Also don't forget that Drew's money is coming off the books so the Sox have a substantial amount of money to play with for a JE extension. You really like the idea of getting rid of players, don't you?

but neither had BORAS as a client. The guy is a POS that pushes his players towards mercenary and not where a good situation already exists

 

[Synovia]

I Fear we may LOSE him to the Yankee's or whoever. Jacoby will get 18-20 per yr for 7-8 years. Boras doesn't allow the buyout of ARB years. If we want this RARE Talent then we must be RELENTLESS in our Pursuit or we will lose him.

You mean, except for those who HAVE accepted extensions that buy out arb years?

Like :
Jason Varitek
Andruw Jones
Carlos Pena
Derek Lowe
Greg Maddux
Rob Nenn
Ryan Madson
Carlos Gonzales
...


And thats just off the top of my head.

 

[Synovia]

A base-stealing, home-run hitting, high BA center fielder with above average range is worth at least $15 million. You would need two players to replace that kind of production.

There's no way in hell you sign Ellsbury for $15M a year. If he does anything remotely close next year to what hes doing this year, you're looking at 6/150 AT A MINIMUM when he hits FA.

You might be able to get a lower AAV if you're buying out ARB years, but there's still going to be a bunch of years at 25M.

 

[Synovia]

Crawford was a free agent. Ellsbury is not. Look at the deal that Pedroia got, and that was coming OFF an MVP winning season. Ellsbury is still under team control for the next few years. Any extension would have to come at a discount to 'buy off' those control years. Also don't forget that Drew's money is coming off the books so the Sox have a substantial amount of money to play with for a JE extension. You really like the idea of getting rid of players, don't you?

Pedroia was still a ways away from ARB. Ells is in ARB. They're a drastically different situation. Pedroia signed with 2 years of service time. Ellsbury will have 4 at the end of the season. He's significantly closer to FA, has made significantly more money than Pedroia had, and has significantly less reason to give a discount for security.


Some of the years of Pedroia's that the contract replaced were $400K years. The two years you'd be buying out for Ells (who is making $3M) would probably be in the range of $8M and $15M.

 

[chicowalker]

Unless the market changes, Ellsbury's not getting $25mm per year. While he's having a very good year, he's still not close to the best player in the game, and even if he replicates his performance next year, that will make exactly 2 years where he's been a very good player.

 

[Synovia]

Unless the market changes, Ellsbury's not getting $25mm per year. While he's having a very good year, he's still not close to the best player in the game, and even if he replicates his performance next year, that will make exactly 2 years where he's been a very good player.

Not close to the best player in the game? I'm going to have to strongly disagree with that.

Here's the top 10 position players in baseball by WAR (Wins above replacement) so far this year:

Bautista : 6.8
Pedroia : 6.7
Tulo: 6.0
Victorino: 5.8
Ellsbury: 5.7
Zobrist: 5.6
Reyes: 5.6
McCuthen:5.6
Holliday:5.5
Upton:5.5

Guys who play CF, or SS, play it well, and can hit, are insanely valuable. He absolutely is one of the best players in the game, if hes anything close to what we're seeing this year.

We gave Agon 22M a year, and hes a 5.1WAR player so far this year. We gave Crawford 21m and Ellsbury is putting up a better year than Crawford ever has. Jason Werth got 20M a year, and hes never been better than 5WAR, and is 3WAR most years.

The only differense between Ellsbury is he has a shorter track record (although he was a 5WAR player in '08). If he does it another year, hes absolutely going to get a HUGE contract.

 

[chicowalker]

Not close to the best player in the game? I'm going to have to strongly disagree with that.

Here's the top 10 position players in baseball by WAR (Wins above replacement) so far this year:

Bautista : 6.8
Pedroia : 6.7
Tulo: 6.0
Victorino: 5.8
Ellsbury: 5.7
Zobrist: 5.6
Reyes: 5.6
McCuthen:5.6
Holliday:5.5
Upton:5.5

Guys who play CF, or SS, play it well, and can hit, are insanely valuable. He absolutely is one of the best players in the game, if hes anything close to what we're seeing this year.

We gave Agon 22M a year, and hes a 5.1WAR player so far this year. We gave Crawford 21m and Ellsbury is putting up a better year than Crawford ever has. Jason Werth got 20M a year, and hes never been better than 5WAR, and is 3WAR most years.

The only differense between Ellsbury is he has a shorter track record (although he was a 5WAR player in '08). If he does it another year, hes absolutely going to get a HUGE contract.

right -- WAR is best player relative to his position, not best in the game

If you want to pretend that list is the 10 best players in the game, you're welcome to your opinion. But how many of them are making $20mm+?

AGon got $22mm per year after several years of above average performance and a few years of elite performance.

Crawford got $21mm after several years of performance. What he's doing this year is irrelevant to what he was paid this winter.

"The only difference between Ellsbury is he has a shorter track record" -- well, yeah, like I said, he's done it for 1 year. next year will make 2.

But I didn't say he won't get a huge contract if he does it again, though, did I? I said he won't get $25mm.

 

[TheSolderKing]

You mean, except for those who HAVE accepted extensions that buy out arb years?

Like :
Jason Varitek
Andruw Jones
Carlos Pena
Derek Lowe
Greg Maddux
Rob Nenn
Ryan Madson
Carlos Gonzales
...


And thats just off the top of my head.

those guys were all Boras? That seems odd. I hope we can buy Jacoby's out
and extend him yrs longer

 

[Synovia]

right -- WAR is best player relative to his position, not best in the game
.

WAR adjusts by position, so it allows you to compare players at different position. A good defensive CF doesn't need to hit nearly as well as an average RF to be just as valuable (good).

The Jose Bautista/Pedroia comparison is a good example of this: Bautista is a much better hitter than Pedroia, but hes a crappy right fielder and a crappy 3B. Pedroia, on the other hand, plays a much tougher position, and is spectacular at it. Becuase of that, they essentially have the same value.

Jacoby Ellsbury, right now, is the 5th best (position) player in baseball. If he can keep up performance like that, hes going to get paid like hes the 5th best player in baseball.

As to how much the rest of the guys make, most of them were signed before they'd established they were elite. If Ellsbury keeps this performance up, and hits FA, he's absolutely going to get an ENORMOUS contract.

I'll bring up Jayson Werth again. He got 19M/year, despite being older than Ellsbury will be, playing a position further down the defensive spectrum, not doing it as well, and being about the same quality of hitter.

 

[Patriot Missile]

He's going to be in a Sox uni for a long time. Drew, Dice K, Ortiz. these are all expiring contracts that will be taken into account when they ink this kid to 6 year deal 100,000,000 dollar deal with a option to kill it in year 5 so he can get the last big fat contract.

 

[chicowalker]

WAR adjusts by position, so it allows you to compare players at different position. A good defensive CF doesn't need to hit nearly as well as an average RF to be just as valuable (good). ....

Right... as I said, "WAR is best player relative to his position, not best in the game"

Being valuable relative to a position doesn't mean you're the better player -- it means you're better than the other guys who play the same position.

...Ellsbury keeps this performance up, and hits FA, he's absolutely going to get an ENORMOUS contract. ....

Again: "...I didn't say he won't get a huge contract if he does it again, though, did I? I said he won't get $25mm..."

...I'll bring up Jayson Werth again. He got 19M/year, despite being older than Ellsbury will be, playing a position further down the defensive spectrum, not doing it as well, and being about the same quality of hitter.

You can bring him up as many times as you want. Most people thought he was vastly overpaid (same goes for Crawford, btw), and while he was a year older, he also had an extra year of good performance under his belt.

 

[Synovia]

Right... as I said, "WAR is best player relative to his position, not best in the game"

Being valuable relative to a position doesn't mean you're the better player -- it means you're better than the other guys who play the same position.

What exactly does "best player in the game" mean. You're going to have to define that.

I woudl argue that positional scarcity plays a huge part of that. Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the game, but hes probably not the best PLAYER.