Jabar Gaffney released. Will we sign him?

[Urgent]

The two-year deal generally indicates a higher likelihood he makes the team.

There will be some deadcap money eaten from all these vets at the end of the offseason. Hard to see more than one of Branch, Gonzalez, Stallworth, and Ocho making the team.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well there is certainly a logjam at veteran receiver this year.

Roster includes:

Welker (presumably)
Lloyd
Branch
Gaffney
Stallworth
Ochocinco/Johnson
Slater
Edelman
Gonzalez
Underwood
Ebert

Max of six.
Welker, Lloyd, and Slater seem like locks (Slater was a captain and Pro Bowl ST).

Other three:
Outside: Branch, Gaffney, Stallworth, Ocho, Underwood
Slot: Edelman, Gonzalez, Ebert

Two outside and one inside from those lists?

Slater isn't really a WR, he'll get one of the ST specialist spots. In addition to him, I think we'll have 6 WRs, but at least one of them will be mainly ST. Based on that, I'd guess that the following make the cut:

Sure things:
Welker
Lloyd
Gaffney

The rest:
Branch
Edelman
Stallworth

Ebert to PS, Gonzalez over Edelman if he turns out to be a much better WR and they can get their ST production elsewhere (secondary). Ocho's best bet to make the roster, that I can see, is to beat out Stallworth. Odds are probably against him, but wouldn't be shocked.

 

[PatsDeb]

Nah, he's water under the bridge. Let's move on.

Pass the salt and the crow.

 

[ausbacker]

Well, the receiver depth chart looks better than last season already.

 

[BradyManny]

Welker - Llloyd - Gaffney is a very good top 3.

Branch will most likely make it due to versatility, experience, and chemistry.

That leaves Stallworth, Ocho, Edelman & Gonzalez to battle it out for 1-2 spots. If Edelman makes it, then I say another pure WR makes it.

Ebert has potential but is clearly PS bound.

This will be an interesting storyline during camp.

 

[BradyManny]

Ebert to PS, Gonzalez over Edelman if he turns out to be a much better WR and they can get their ST production elsewhere (secondary). Ocho's best bet to make the roster, that I can see, is to beat out Stallworth. Odds are probably against him, but wouldn't be shocked.

Looks like I'm on the same page.

I also have not written Ocho off. There is some hope to think he grasps the mental side, because unlike guys like Branch or Gonzalez, the physical aspect is not a question mark with him. Seeing him move smoother, cut quicker and run harder than Mike Williams, BJGE & Antonio Brown reminded me that he's still an athletic freak.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Gaffney and Tom click. This is the most important aspect for what really makes the Pats offense deadly against any defense: Its no-huddle. The no-huddle needs the ESP Tom showed with Wes, Branch, Gronk and Hernandez last year. When others subbed in (e.g. Ocho, Edelman), the no-huddle lost some steam and often the Pats wouldn't even run it.

Good signing.

Regards,
Chris

P.S. I hope Lloyd also clicks with Tom. The no-huddle with him stretching the D makes me all tingly.

 

[Joker]

Nice post

Regards,
Joe Kerr

P.S. It really must be sunny in Sunnyvale all the time....I don't think I've ever read a contentious word posted by you at this board.

 

[patsderoer]

Welker - Llloyd - Gaffney is a very good top 3.

Branch will most likely make it due to versatility, experience, and chemistry.

That leaves Stallworth, Ocho, Edelman & Gonzalez to battle it out for 1-2 spots. If Edelman makes it, then I say another pure WR makes it.

Ebert has potential but is clearly PS bound.

This will be an interesting storyline during camp.

Branch and Ocho are too old, I'd rather keep a young receiver like Ebert to learn the system than one of them. Welker, Lloyd and Gaffney are more than enough veteran presence.

Branch I think is gone. The only thing going for him was that he knew the system, but Gaffney also knows the system. Branch is old, he disappeared in the last part of last season and the playoffs. Time to say goodbye.

Ocho is also old, and couldn't learn the system. Let him go and develop a young receiver in Ebert for the future.

 

[Patjew]

Pass the salt and the crow.

You're a good one, Deb.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Branch and Ocho are too old, I'd rather keep a young receiver like Ebert to learn the system than one of them. Welker, Lloyd and Gaffney are more than enough veteran presence.

Branch I think is gone. The only thing going for him was that he knew the system, but Gaffney also knows the system. Branch is old, he disappeared in the last part of last season and the playoffs. Time to say goodbye.

Ocho is also old, and couldn't learn the system. Let him go and develop a young receiver in Ebert for the future.

If he wants to prove that he's worth a roster spot, he'll have to beat the old guys. Otherwise, he'll make the PS. Guy was a 7th round pick, so he's pretty much guaranteed to make it to the PS if cut. Either way, he's getting developed, and Belichick isn't going to give a roster spot to a guy who didn't earn it just because he's young.

 

[Why?PJ]

Well there is certainly a logjam at veteran receiver this year.

Roster includes:

Welker (presumably)
Lloyd
Branch
Gaffney
Stallworth
Ochocinco/Johnson
Slater
Edelman
Gonzalez
Underwood
Ebert

Max of six.
Welker, Lloyd, and Slater seem like locks (Slater was a captain and Pro Bowl ST).

Other three:
Outside: Branch, Gaffney, Stallworth, Ocho, Underwood
Slot: Edelman, Gonzalez, Ebert

Two outside and one inside from those lists?

Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth, Gonzalez, Ebert, Ochocinco/Johnson
That's my order. People are calling Ebert a "welker clone", that alone means he won't make it to the practice squad.

I'm betting Branch is retiring. I'm also wouldn't count out BB keeping all 7, if he doesn't find a vet rb he likes. The one thing that has killed us every year is the wr's keep getting injured. It looks like BB is going to make sure that does not happen this year.

Slater and Edelman will make the team, but neither will be listed as a WR.

 

[patsderoer]

If he wants to prove that he's worth a roster spot, he'll have to beat the old guys. Otherwise, he'll make the PS. Guy was a 7th round pick, so he's pretty much guaranteed to make it to the PS if cut. Either way, he's getting developed, and Belichick isn't going to give a roster spot to a guy who didn't earn it just because he's young.

Well, with this kind of thinking in 2-3 years Pats will only have grandpas at WR who know their system. How can a young receiver like Ebert(or any other rookie receiver) beat in camp a veteran like Branch who knows all the routes? He can't. But you just can't ignore that, when Gronk went down, Branch and Ocho both had huge opportunity to step up, and they didn't.

Why keep two really old WRs to catch a few passes, when you can develop a young WR for the future.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well, with this kind of thinking in 2-3 years Pats will only have grandpas at WR who know their system. How can a young receiver like Ebert(or any other rookie receiver) beat in camp a veteran like Branch who knows all the routes? He can't. But you just can't ignore that, when Gronk went down, Branch and Ocho both had huge opportunity to step up, and they didn't.

Why keep two really old WRs to catch a few passes, when you can develop a young WR for the future.

Why can't he beat Branch, Stallworth, Edelman, or Ochocinco in camp? Branch is old, and he's young- he has an inherent advantage out of the gate in that he's simply more athletic. At the very least, if he as a rookie isn't more athletic than a 33 year old Branch, then he probably isn't worth developing anyways.

Belichick has made it very clear that, on this team, the best players make it. This isn't the Jets, where Vernon Gholston can stick around for 5 years despite being objectively ****ty at football, on the off chance that he one day becomes good. If Ebert's good enough to be worth keeping on the roster for development, then he's good enough to beat out one of Branch, Stallworth, or Ocho. If he isn't there yet, then he'll go to the practice squad.

This is how the Patriots have been doing it for about 10 years now, and they currently have a roster stocked with young players, so your 2-3 year premise just isn't reflected in reality.

 

[patsderoer]

Belichick has made it very clear that, on this team, the best players make it. This isn't the Jets, where Vernon Gholston can stick around for 5 years despite being objectively ****ty at football, on the off chance that he one day becomes good. If Ebert's good enough to be worth keeping on the roster for development, then he's good enough to beat out one of Branch, Stallworth, or Ocho. If he isn't there yet, then he'll go to the practice squad.

I think that, if Ebert shows enough in camp (he's a quick learner, he connects with Brady, Brady likes what he sees after he ignores the rookie mistakes etc), even if the other guys beat him, he still gets the nod over one of them, simply because he's young and can be developed for the future, and there are plenty of 30+ year old WRs on the roster already.
If he doesn't show enough, I agree, he's gone to the PS.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Gonzo and Stallworth were insurance signings pre draft. Little or no up front money. And pre Gaffney coming free. Barring injury they will have an uphill battle to stick. Each could end up on the shadow roster. Branch was re-signed with $400K up front. Ocho is being given a second chance to salvage the $6M invested in him. His dead cap is $1.5M per for the next two years whether he makes the roster or not. His 2012 salary and Branch's are the same (as is Stallworth's) but Branch has the potential to earn $250K-$3M in incentives. Branch can run any route on the tree (although I wouldn't recommend he run them all). Ocho used to excel at come backs, although unless he gets on the same page as everyone else he will be odd man out. Underwood and the rookie can be on the PS and scout team and available if needed. Edleman is likely back as a punt returner and emergency whatever...including Welker backup.

Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Branch, Edleman would seem to be the guys to beat.

Bubble players Ocho, Stallworth, Gonzo, Underwood, rookie.

Slater is all ST beyond dire emergency WR.

Edleman could end up making the final roster apart from conventional splits just because he's versatile and can play in both facets of the game in a pinch and is the primary PRer and plays on all the ST units. In that case Stallworth and Ocho are in a steel cage match, possibly with the rookie who can still go to the PS. One or the other could also find themselves off the 53 and then back on it after week 1 when salaries are not guaranteed. Somebody could land on IR and somebody could wind up on PUP. Lots can happen to make 10 in May seem like a lot less come September. That's why it's good to have crazy depth.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think that, if Ebert shows enough in camp (he's a quick learner, he connects with Brady, Brady likes what he sees after he ignores the rookie mistakes etc), even if the other guys beat him, he still gets the nod over one of them, simply because he's young and can be developed for the future, and there are plenty of 30+ year old WRs on the roster already.
If he doesn't show enough, I agree, he's gone to the PS.

That's not generally the way it works here. Bill wants to field the best 53 who give him a shot to win right now. If the rookie shows promise but isn't better than a veteran out of the gate he will go to the PS until he is or until someone goes down and that opens a roster spot for him. You don't stick purely for development unless there is a real risk you won't pass waivers (and for late rounders that's unlikely unless you're a developmental QB on a team with little to lose by carrying 4...)

 

[Deus Irae]

Well, with this kind of thinking in 2-3 years Pats will only have grandpas at WR who know their system. How can a young receiver like Ebert(or any other rookie receiver) beat in camp a veteran like Branch who knows all the routes? He can't. But you just can't ignore that, when Gronk went down, Branch and Ocho both had huge opportunity to step up, and they didn't.

Why keep two really old WRs to catch a few passes, when you can develop a young WR for the future.

Ebert was a 7th round pick. In all likelihood, he's not beating out older incumbents or younger incumbents. Based solely upon success percentages, he's simply not going to be good enough to beat out the competition. So, unless he shows that he's beating the percentage, why would you care about the age of the guys beating him out?

 

[ausbacker]

Well, with this kind of thinking in 2-3 years Pats will only have grandpas at WR who know their system. How can a young receiver like Ebert(or any other rookie receiver) beat in camp a veteran like Branch who knows all the routes? He can't. But you just can't ignore that, when Gronk went down, Branch and Ocho both had huge opportunity to step up, and they didn't.

Why keep two really old WRs to catch a few passes, when you can develop a young WR for the future.

In 2-3 years time there will have been 2-3 Free Agency and Draft periods.

 

[patsderoer]

Ebert was a 7th round pick. In all likelihood, he's not beating out older incumbents or younger incumbents.

There are not that many young incumbents to beat.

Based solely upon success percentages, he's simply not going to be good enough to beat out the competition. So, unless he shows that he's beating the percentage, why would you care about the age of the guys beating him out?

The idea was what if he does show that he's beating the percentage. BB saw something in this guy, since he drafted him. And in the draftees videos, you can see Ebert beating 2nd round pick Wilson two times for a TD. Probably this is why he even drafted him.

I care about the age because that age is getting really old with Branch and Ocho. Branch disappeared in the playoffs this season, also droppped that 4th down conversion 2 seasons ago vs the Jets. That 4th down conversion went right through his hands and he didn't catch it. When the going got tough, he disappeared.

Ocho, what can I say. He likes to tweet rather than spend time learning the playbook. He got a huge chance to show up when Gronk went down, but he didn't.