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I've been thinking....

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Apr 8, 2007.

  1. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    .... and I think I can come up with 2 scenerios that will deal with Samuel and get this done quickly, assuming he is willing to compromise a little.

    CONTRACT - It is my feeling that Samuel is worth $8-9MM/year. I also feel that no CB we draft THIS season will be close to Samuel's worth, even if he's the best CB drafted. However I DO believe that we can Draft a CB that will be close to his worth, if he has 2 years to develop. So the object of my contract is to get Samuel to play here at LEAST another 2 years.

    So the first deal I offer Samuel is a 2 year deal for $18MM with about 10-12 guaranteed, and an agreement that at the end of the deal the Pats won't franchise him. That is about a million more than what it would cost to franchise Samuel the next 2 years. Its a good deal for Samuel because it would get him to FA at 28 years old and he wouldn't have to hear he's a one year wonder. It gets him MORE money than if he was franchised for 2 years, and it gives the Pats more time to see that he is worth what he wants and get a long term deal done.

    I really think he understands that while he is a very good CB on his own, this system, coaching, and quality of the team, will help him become perhaps a HOFer There is always a risk that the team who he goes to will never be as good as the Pats will be over the next 5 years, and being on a great team helps an individual's rep a lot.

    This is good for the Pats in that it gives them another 2 years before they have to replace a #1 CB. At the end the Pats will have had 3 years of elite play, and that would be a reasonable pay back for what they have invested in Samuel without having to worry much about a down turn in the level of his play over time. AND most importantly, it would get Samuel into the fold so there will be no training camp hold out and he can get all his work in. The only problem with this plan is that its all up front. You can't hide his money over time.

    The second Deal I would offer is similar but would be a 3 year deal for about $26MM. with $18 guaranteed, and no franchise tag when the deal is done. That would get him to FA BEFORE he hit 30. Get him very close to what he is asking and he does not have him leaving before we can develop his successor.

    Again I would want to know if there is a team out there who would what he is "reportedly" asking for. I really can't see a team looking to spend THAT kind of money on ANY CB.

    As far as trading Samuel, I am really not hopeful. IMHO his is worth at least a mid round #1 plus a second next year or a third this year. IF the team who wants him is a low first rounder I would want a first and 2nd rounder this year, AND a 2nd the next year. Frankly I can't think that a team would give us those picks PLUS pay Samuel $30MM over the first 3 years. But then again, I didn't think anyone would give us a first AND pay Branch what HE wanted. Maybe there is a team who thinks they are one good CB away from a superbowl. but NO TEAM is just ONE good player away.

    I know we can do this by just keeping on Franchising him, but I don't want him to miss the off season team activities. I appreciate your thoughts on any of these approaches
  2. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    Who says we will be getting 3 more 'elite' years out of Samuel..This is YOUR opinion,It may be just a one good year player even though he has got better over his 4 year career lets see him do back to back years of 10+ ints and more before we say he is going to be 'elite' for the next 3 years.

    Ty Law when he left here for more cash WAS an ELITE player for years before that,Asante needs to show me more before we can even put him in a Law,Bailey,Clements class as of now.

    Who says we won't get lucky if we draft a CB like Marshall or Hill drafted last year?,Both played well...Even though the odds are not great that drafting a CB this year will turn to be a awesome pro then neither is the guarantee Asante continues his 1 good year into another and another.

    I am not into the 'if Asante leaves we are doomed' bandwagon until I see 2 or more consecutive good yearly season performances by him -The first 3 years showed me nothing other than an above average CB - NOT Elite as of now just because he had 5 interceptions of his 10 off of 2 qbs ,2 off A Rookie and the other 3 off of Rex Grossman-enuff said.
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2007
  3. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like the offers (I would add a one year offer with no franchise). However, I don't think Samuel will bite, although I think you have the two essential elements: a lot of guaranteed cash and a commitment of no franchise. He already can have almost $8M of guaranteed cash. Why would he a add a year commitment to the pats for another four? Why not wait and get $17M after the pats franchise him again.

    In the end, Samuel might agree to one of the deals and be a happy camper, which would be good for one and all. However, I don't see why Samuel would sign a deal now. I would think he would wait at least until mid-July. Perhaps it doesn't matter, as long as the team understands that Samuel is NOT a long-term solution at CB.






  4. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    Yeah but 1 pick off Satan Manning in the playoffs is worth like 5.
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2007
  5. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    Manning getting picked off in the playoffs is really no big thing..It happens at least once every year by different guys on different teams against the colts...The only difference being in 2006 he was not picked off late in the game which was the norm for his career in the playoffs,thats what made a difference in their game winning drive against us.
  6. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    don't think to hard it can be painful.....coming up with trade scenarios doesnt solve the situation. when it comes down to it beioli will do what is necessary and if that means caving to assante than fine and if it means dealing him then they will get top dollar but don't stress.
  7. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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  8. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Righto.
    1st, he simply hasn't established himself as worth 8-9 million per.
    2nd, merely because San Fran overpaid Nate Clements at that level (counting the realistic years only)
    doesn't mean we should ... or that anyone else will.

    If someone else DOES make him an offer thereabouts
    ... i hope it is one of the other elite AFC contenders ...
    because that cap management mistake will shortchange the rest of their roster
    by more than Asante will improve it !
    The ol' "unseen consequences" bugaboo.
  9. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    I would do the 2 year deal if I were the Pats. It's similar what they did for Law until they said goodbye to him. Will ensure we are super competitive for the superbowl for at least 2 years.
  10. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    One thing to remember in all these discussions is that Law pretty much performed as an elite corner only every OTHER year, and the Pats offered and gave him a ton of money even so.
  11. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    Ken,

    I am an unabashed fan of yours, but I couldn't disagree more with this idea. Those deals are, IMO, HUUUUUGE overpays. I like Samuel just fine, but you seem to LOVE him. I'm not sure why, given he's had exactly one elite season. He's very good, he's on the rise, he's in his prime - I grant you all of that. But 8-9 mill per season? Seems like a LOT to me.
  12. MDPATSFAN

    MDPATSFAN Rookie

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    He should have been...During the "interference play", the ball hit Hobbs right in the back!
  13. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    Well the question is well founded, but my answer has a lot to do with how BB evaluates his players. Not so much as what they are at this minute in time, but how they WILL BE after they have had a chance to get pro coaching and have pro experiences.

    Though some fans have glibbly tosses out Samuel's first 3 years as being mediocre, where in fact they all have shown a continued upward progress from year to year. His 2nd and 3rd years would have both been more memorable if he had dropped those half dozen picks or more. Clearly he as ALWAYS shown the ability to be around the ball. He had an issue with his hands, worked on it, and the results were 13 picks in 2006.

    Also I concidered the fact that he is young, durable and just entering the prime of his career so his upside is far greater than the likelihood that he would slip. He also is a very good tackler, and every year progressed in his ability to read patterns and get a good jump on the ball.

    All things being equal, I think Samuel is worth the franchise price I proposed to pay in either 2 or 3 year contracts. Of the young CBs of his age, only Rasheed Mathis is a CB I might take instead of Samuel, and that is a function of Mathis' great size, than any great ability he has.

    I hope that that explains my position better. I can't afford to lose any fans. :D
  14. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    You won't be losing any fans, Ken - certainly not this one. And I agree that Asante is a good player, in his prime, improving, etc... I just think you seemed kind of casual about what is, IMHO, a pretty hefty price-tag.

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