It's on to Green Bay

[JMC00]

The best predictor of winning is turnovers and Green Bay has outperformed us in that regard. Rodgers is perhaps the most accurate passer in the NFL. Brady has made some poor decisions recently and has a few picks to show for it

Outperformed? Their differential is +15. Pats is +11. Outperformed isn't the word I would use, they have been slightly better. Especially when +2 of that differential came against Sanchez. Guy has thrown 2 INT in 3 out of the 4 games he has played in. Pats have only given the ball away 1 more time than the Packers.

And when you say poor decisions you mean 3 poor decisions in 136 attempts? Well lets loook at the decisions that led to INTs

-Brady decides to go deep to Tyms and Vollmer's guy gets free and at the last second gets pressure on Brady.
Brady had already committed to throwing the ball. Are people calling it a bad decision if Vollmer blocks his guy? Nope.

-INT before HT
Yep. Bad decision by Brady.

-INT against Detroit.
Brady went to his #1 Red Zone target over the last 5 years who was held. If Gronk isn't held maybe he doesn't catch it but it probably isn't an INT.

As far as accuracy Brees, Romo, Rivers, Roethlisburger, Manning, and Cutler have statistically been more accurate than Rodgers this year. With the exception of Romo they've all thrown it more than Rodgers.

Over the last 4 games-
Rodgers has completed 66.2%
Brady has completed 70.7%

Pats defense has allowed 55% to Cutler, Manning, Luck, and Stafford
Packers defense has allowed 65% to Brees, Cutler, Sanchez, and Bridgewater

 

[Mack Herron]

Outperformed? Their differential is +15. Pats is +11. Outperformed isn't the word I would use, they have been slightly better. Especially when +2 of that differential came against Sanchez. Guy has thrown 2 INT in 3 out of the 4 games he has played in. Pats have only given the ball away 1 more time than the Packers.

And when you say poor decisions you mean 3 poor decisions in 136 attempts? Well lets loook at the decisions that led to INTs

-Brady decides to go deep to Tyms and Vollmer's guy gets free and at the last second gets pressure on Brady.
Brady had already committed to throwing the ball. Are people calling it a bad decision if Vollmer blocks his guy? Nope.

-INT before HT
Yep. Bad decision by Brady.

-INT against Detroit.
Brady went to his #1 Red Zone target over the last 5 years who was held. If Gronk isn't held maybe he doesn't catch it but it probably isn't an INT.

As far as accuracy Brees, Romo, Rivers, Roethlisburger, Manning, and Cutler have statistically been more accurate than Rodgers this year. With the exception of Romo they've all thrown it more than Rodgers.

Over the last 4 games-
Rodgers has completed 66.2%
Brady has completed 70.7%

Pats defense has allowed 55% to Cutler, Manning, Luck, and Stafford
Packers defense has allowed 65% to Brees, Cutler, Sanchez, and Bridgewater

Defining passing accuracy solely by completion % is a poor metric because it fails to take into account degree of difficulty, among other things. Throwing more short passes improves your completion % but does not make you a more accurate passer. Rodgers throws long passes that have an inherently lower completion % and has a higher yds/completion than the guys you list. More importantly, he has done it with fewer interceptions. No single stat tells the whole story of course (which is the reason for the QB rating stat, where Rodgers is #1), but 3 INTs with 30 TDs tells you that Rodgers is a big time threat who makes few mistakes.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Dobsons coming out party!!?! Woooo

 

[Oswlek]

Dobsons coming out party!!?! Woooo

More likely Gray's resurrection.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I think Broncos win vs KC which will mean if we lose..we are tied record wise but still #1..then it will come down to winning out becasue after KC i think they can very well win out by some luck BS wins.

KC losing Berry is going to cost them this game IMO. Hope he recovers...

But win or lose in GB..i think we win out after that. If we don't then we could be in trouble....but this team should do that..if not it's a disappointment IMO


Just beat GB and all is well. But losing to a NFC team isn't the worst and would set them on a war path rest of the year.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I invite y'all to look at GB schedule, who they played, who they lost to, and who they have beaten.

The GB stats are wildly inflated for beating the list of losers they have played. Their losses are to mildly winning, near .500 clubs.

This game, even though played at Lambeau, has all the marks of another 40-berger coming.

When you have only played 4 mildly winning clubs and lost to two of them, the Packers don't have much to crow about.

We have played better receiving pairs & TE, then tiny Cobb and bigger Jordy. For example, like Megatron & Tate with Ebron; or D. Thomas & Sanders with Thomas. Incidently GB lost to the Lions.

I can already predict BB's game plan and that Revis will take Cobb and a Browner & Safety Combo, will take Jordy.

The D-Line and LBs will neutralize Lacy, and harass Aaron Rodgers.

We also have played against better backs than Lacy too and actually have one or two on our own roster.

 

[SVN]

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2014/11/24/how-packers-stop-gronkowski/70066376/

dont think they put matthews on gronk.

 

[Oswlek]

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2014/11/24/how-packers-stop-gronkowski/70066376/

dont think they put matthews on gronk.

I hope they do.

 

[Ring 6]

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2014/11/24/how-packers-stop-gronkowski/70066376/

dont think they put matthews on gronk.

I hope they do.

 

[Ring 6]

Defining passing accuracy solely by completion % is a poor metric because it fails to take into account degree of difficulty, among other things. Throwing more short passes improves your completion % but does not make you a more accurate passer. Rodgers throws long passes that have an inherently lower completion % and has a higher yds/completion than the guys you list. More importantly, he has done it with fewer interceptions. No single stat tells the whole story of course (which is the reason for the QB rating stat, where Rodgers is #1), but 3 INTs with 30 TDs tells you that Rodgers is a big time threat who makes few mistakes.

Really? Would you be surprised to know that Rodgers has thrown only 25 passes more than 20 yards downfield all season? Brady has thrown 33.
11+ yards downfield, Rodgers 103 Brady 120.

 

[FourierSeries]

I think Broncos win vs KC which will mean if we lose..we are tied record wise but still #1..then it will come down to winning out becasue after KC i think they can very well win out by some luck BS wins.

KC losing Berry is going to cost them this game IMO. Hope he recovers...

But win or lose in GB..i think we win out after that. If we don't then we could be in trouble....but this team should do that..if not it's a disappointment IMO


Just beat GB and all is well. But losing to a NFC team isn't the worst and would set them on a war path rest of the year.

This team can win on the road in the playoffs if healthy. Especially against Denver.

 

[Ivan]

Revised on Cobb, Browner on Quarles, and Ryan,Dennard, or Arrongton on Nelson with safety help. Play Rodgers as they did Luck, keep him from getting outside of the pocket, and keep the focus on wrapping them up and limiting YAC.

 

[Ring 6]

Revised on Cobb, Browner on Quarles, and Ryan,Dennard, or Arrongton on Nelson with safety help. Play Rodgers as they did Luck, keep him from getting outside of the pocket, and keep the focus on wrapping them up and limiting YAC.

Browner on Nelson is the nobrainer.

 

[Ring 6]

I think Broncos win vs KC which will mean if we lose..we are tied record wise but still #1..then it will come down to winning out becasue after KC i think they can very well win out by some luck BS wins.

KC losing Berry is going to cost them this game IMO. Hope he recovers...

But win or lose in GB..i think we win out after that. If we don't then we could be in trouble....but this team should do that..if not it's a disappointment IMO


Just beat GB and all is well. But losing to a NFC team isn't the worst and would set them on a war path rest of the year.

No matter who is on the schedule predicting Denver to win out is shaky. The last 2 weeks they lost to a sub 500 Rams team, and should have lost, at home, to a thoroughly average Miami team.

 

[Kontradiction]

Revised on Cobb, Browner on Quarles, and Ryan,Dennard, or Arrongton on Nelson with safety help. Play Rodgers as they did Luck, keep him from getting outside of the pocket, and keep the focus on wrapping them up and limiting YAC.

Revis on Cobb. Browner on Nelson with the assistance of a safety to clean things up. Rotate people on Quarless and keep Rogers from scrambling and we should be able to limit Green Bay's offense enough to pull out the W in a tough place to play.

 

[Mack Herron]

Really? Would you be surprised to know that Rodgers has thrown only 25 passes more than 20 yards downfield all season? Brady has thrown 33.
11+ yards downfield, Rodgers 103 Brady 120.

Where are those numbers from Andy? They are inconsistent with these:
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_20PLUS_YARDS_EACH

Regardless, any QB stat has limitations and can be argued. I was merely proposing a scenario under which it would be difficult to win. Nobody is better than Rodgers at taking care of the ball, and I think he is the best QB we have faced. we have to make mistakes to lose and losing the turnover battle would be one way. Bad penalties would be another. If we play our best, I don't think its close.

 

[Ring 6]

Where are those numbers from Andy? They are inconsistent with these:
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_20PLUS_YARDS_EACH

Of course they are because you are listing 20 yard gains, and I am listing passes thrown 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which is what is pertinent to your argument that Rodgers throws a lot of long, harder to complete passes, which he actually does not. ESPN.com splits.

Regardless, any QB stat has limitations and can be argued.

Not one that says he throws more deep passes that have a lower % chance. Those stats are available and indisputable.

I was merely proposing a scenario under which it would be difficult to win. Nobody is better than Rodgers at taking care of the ball, and I think he is the best QB we have faced. we have to make mistakes to lose and losing the turnover battle would be one way. Bad penalties would be another. If we play our best, I don't think its close.

Wasn't addressing your entire point, just correcting an error in your assumptions.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Where are those numbers from Andy? They are inconsistent with these:
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_20PLUS_YARDS_EACH

Regardless, any QB stat has limitations and can be argued. I was merely proposing a scenario under which it would be difficult to win. Nobody is better than Rodgers at taking care of the ball, and I think he is the best QB we have faced. we have to make mistakes to lose and losing the turnover battle would be one way. Bad penalties would be another. If we play our best, I don't think its close.

Of course they are because you are listing 20 yard gains, and I am listing passes thrown 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which is what is pertinent to your argument that Rodgers throws a lot of long, harder to complete passes, which he actually does not. ESPN.com splits.


Not one that says he throws more deep passes that have a lower % chance. Those stats are available and indisputable.


Wasn't addressing your entire point, just correcting an error in your assumptions.

Mack, I think your numbers reflect the amount of YAC that GB receivers have been getting. As others have mentioned in this thread, that is something that the NE defense does a good job of limiting.

 

[obgod3]

I dont normally feel very confident for games like this but somehow I have this sense of calm like I have not had before.

Brady - couple more INT's than Rogers but I hate those stats because if a ball is tipped by the intended receiver and then intercepted I think it should go against the receiver...just my thing. I like Brady only because I think he controls the game a little better than Rogers the wild west gun man.

Gronk - I dont care if they double or triple cover the guy, I dont care if he doesn't get a single catch, because if they do that good a job on him someone else is getting the ball. Other teams fans fail to see that stopping Gronk completely not only never happens but isn't a good idea either.

GB Defense - just not as good as people think, I think an easy schedule and playing a lot of home games recently make them look better than they are, I think NE has a better defense by far. If Detroit cant make Brady and company a bag of doo I dont think GB can, who knows.

Jordy Nelson - guy is dam good and between him and Rogers probably the best back shoulder throwing pair in the NFL, and why I dont like Browner on him, Nelson is very quick and I think Revis has a better chance to defend that particular throw, which the two of them use extensively.

Lacy - Little worried here, I just dont think the Pats run defense has been great, again it might be perception, Lacy is big and fast and doesn't dance. Hope NE can keep him in check, but then again Im not convinced the GB O Line is all that great.

Pats defense - best we have all seen in a long time. One thing I didn't like against Detroit, Detroit receivers got behind the defense a few times and Stafford didn't make the throws, pure luck, Rogers wont miss those.

Weather - Non-factor.

Game Planning - A wash, both sets of coaches are very good.

Either teams game - a single mistake could decide it.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No matter who is on the schedule predicting Denver to win out is shaky. The last 2 weeks they lost to a sub 500 Rams team, and should have lost, at home, to a thoroughly average Miami team.

I don't think they should have lost. Yes maybe if MIA was healthy in the secondary the could have won..but they weren't.


I think they win in KC and now SD looks like not a very good team anymore. Plus when DEN plays there it's always another home game for them..more #18 jersey wearing tool bags then chargers fans

Then Buff and OAK those are Ws. I think we can only afford 1 more loss if we want #1..that's it