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It's going to get alot worse from here:

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Run DMC, Sep 15, 2008.

  1. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Here is an interview with Meredith Whitney who rightfully predicted the downfall of Lehman:

    Today, Meredith Whitney was on CNBC interviewed by Maria Bartoromo. It was a seven minute segment that was essentially a monologue by Whitney trying to fit in as much as she could. Boy, and did she. Click the link here, or read the loosely transcribed version below.

    What she says fits in perfectly with a report I wrote mid last month called ‘The Real Estate Quickening is Upon Us’. If you have not read please do. -Best Mr Mortgage


    At a minimum, this is traumatic for everyone involved. Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought the landscape would exclude Lehman, Bear and Merrill.
    What this does is exacerbates the credit crunch. Pulls so much liquidity out of the market.
    Reality is this situation makes it worse. BofA Merrill is good.
    Loss of Lehman pulls liquidity out of market
    None of the $500b in previous write downs was done amidst liquidity pressure.
    Near term Lehman and AIG will be selling assets. When there is a liquidity crunch asset prices will go lower.
    Lehman’s forced selling of $600bb in assets very quickly will drive asset prices down very quickly causing pain across Wall Street
    Other institutions will have to mark their assets lower. A real virus will spread; I don’t know how we get out of this short of real government intervention.
    Maria: “What’s next?”
    Underlying root of all evil has been us house prices.
    Where have you (each bank) gone into this with assumptions of where housing prices will go?
    Futures indicate a 33% peak to trough housing price decline…I think well north of 40-45%.
    WB estimates a peak to trough house price decline of 21% with 60% exposure in CA where prices have been hit the hardest.
    CITI assumes a 23% peak to trough house price decline. That math is not going to work.
    The banks will have to play catch up with their write downs due to underestimating house price declines.
    WaMu should be on forefront of everyone’s mind.
    Maria asks about dividends:
    It never made any sense why CITI kept their dividend. They should not pay one. They don’t earn any money. They can’t afford to pay. They will be selling assets. They have alot of stuff to sell like AIG.
    Everyone is under asset value pressure and should not pay a dividend.
    All these (financials) names will be bought at much cheaper levels in the short term.
    I can’t believe equities market has held up so well as bond market credit spreads blown out across board.
    So much destruction because of Lehman…very messy credit market next several weeks.
    Don’t understand why equities market hanging in there so well
    Europe and Asia:
    When one of your major investment banks does not answer the phone it’s traumatic across globe. Lehman going down pulls liquidity out of the economy across the globe. To date $3 trillion less liquidity is flowing through the market than last year across the globe and $2 trillion less in the US markets.
    How does engine go forward without any lubrication?
    In the past the market did not impact the economy. But now, market directly impacts the economy and exacerbated certainly by this weekend and what I expect over the next couple of weeks. Now you will see economy impact the market going forward.
    So much of the losses so far have been because on given loans prices have declined so much. There has been a small number of relative portion of given loans defaulted so far. Going forward, there will be a higher frequency of defaults in all states. Unemployment went up 50% from July 2007 to July 2008. The market has yet to appreciate how the economy is going to impact the market. The market is still reigning havoc on the economy.
  2. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Dow will be 7500 by this time next year. SP500 will be 800. That should be the bottom. You heard it here first.
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2008
  3. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    You may be right. Oh and by the way a lot is 2 words.
  4. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

  5. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Hey Mike, see if you can wrap your pea brain around this cogent explanation of what has happened in the USA in the last 30 years, starting with the beloved saint, Ronald Reagan:

    I n America the mortgage and banking crisis is just a "catalyst" and the Fannie/Freddie Mac fiasco is pocket change compared to what’s about to happen. Twenty years hence you shall look back upon 08/09 as the good years, as were posed to enter a prolonged depression.

    With the help of the Neo-conservatives, Bush administration and Federal Reserve the big banks such as Citi, Countrywide, Wash Mutual, BA, JP Morgan etc. dumped hundreds of billions of dollars in poor quality loans on both Fannie May and/or Freddie Mac making the 6 trillion dollars in home mortgages they hold a cesspool for America’s substandard mortgages.

    Bush's Neocon-Republican administration legislated tax breaks for corporations and the Elitist top 1% of Americans at the expense of the other 99%. Couple this with a catalyst such as the collapse of the mortgage banking industry & housing prices, a liquidity crisis and pending credit card catastrophe. Then add in years of Union busting, NAFTA, CAFTA, Vietnamese, Central America and other Trade agreements, hundreds of thousands of H1-B & L-1 work visas, years of outsourcing jobs to 3rd world countries and open borders all which help eliminate the higher paying jobs, pensions and benefits for a majority of Americans. This was the foundation our economy was built on and now it's gone. The huge amount of spendable income/benefits these high paying jobs formerly supplied America and the World Economy has disappeared... gone forever. Resulting in a gigantic transfer of wealth from average Americans to the world’s Elitist top 1% and coffers of Corporate America.

    The Federal Reserves low interest rates and easy money created stagflation, the current home mortgage, liquidity and ultimately a solvency crisis. The direct/indirect government sponsored bailouts of the FM’s, banks, hedge funds, mortgage and investment banking will cost American taxpayers trillions of dollars.

    The Bush Administration has cooked the books concerning GDP, employment, inflation and other numbers released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It has allowed corporations to privatize profits and socialize losses. As Hitler did during World War II, the Bush Administration utilizes "Authoritarian Rule" and the "big lie theory"... the bigger the lie the more likely people will believe it.

    Again I say a Republican Congress, the Elitist top 1% and Corporations debased America by outsourcing American Industry to 3rd world countries. Therefore, American will spend years rebuilding its "former" self. Its industrial based economy that for sixty plus years provided most Americans with a high standard of living, benefits and plenty of excess cash to spend buying 29% of the worlds manufactured products.

    Wake up America… the Elitist run World Banks, Investment Banking, Federal Reserve, Bush Administration and Necon-Republicans make the mafia look like a bunch of boy scouts
  6. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Name calling, the crutch of the small minded. If you can tear yourself away from your lib blogs long enough you may want to Google Red Lining. The real catalyst of the mortgage and banking crisis. And you may also want to look into Franklin D. Raines's. In 1996, President Clinton appointed Raines director of the Office of Management and Budget. He was instrumental in Clinton's budget battles with the Republican-controlled Congress. Raines wholly embraced his role as a celebrity CEO. Since his appointment as chief executive in 1999, Raines has been the public face of Fannie Mae, its ambassador to both government and Wall Street. Almost every page on Fannie Mae's Web site includes his picture.
  7. scout

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    #15 Jersey

    It's Clinton's fault?
  8. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    You want to talk small-minded? I suppose your posting pictures of chicken little is "large-minded' not to mention ridiculously in denial of what is happening in this country right now. Greenspam said today "this is a once in a century crisis" and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. You've got the cornerstones of American capitalism imploding and a very serious possibility of a worldwide depression happening. And you're posting pictures of chicken little? You need to get your head out of your arse.
  9. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    All, no. But, it as much his and the Dems as it was Bush and Repubs. But, you see no mention of anything but Bush, Neo-Cons blah blah liberal talking points blah blah from Moss81. I was just trying to give him more of the puzzle that he is missing.
  10. scout

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    #15 Jersey

    Right...................So if the two administrations (Clinton/Bush) were reversed in that Bush had record gains with a huge reduction in the deficit while Clinton had record job losses, foreclosures, corporate bankruptcies, massive bailouts, and created a mamouth deficit, then you would call it equal.
  11. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    It's bipartisan. A word you clearly don't understand.

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