Welcome to PatsFans.com

It's Draft Lottery Time!

Discussion in 'Boston Celtics Fan Forum' started by Real World, Apr 19, 2007.

  1. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    26,727
    Likes Received:
    124
    Ratings:
    +248 / 3 / -2

    So how many of you think the C's will get the short end of the stick again in the lottery? My guess is that if Oden comes out the C's draft 3rd, and if he doesn't they'll draft 2nd. :(

    For your amusement, I've posted the click'o'meter from ESPN. Enjoy!

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/lottery2007/mockdraft
  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    40,833
    Likes Received:
    89
    Ratings:
    +150 / 3 / -19

    Did it 10 times, and the Celts came up with #1 or #2 5 times, those ain't bad odds.. wait and see.
  3. Boston Boxer

    Boston Boxer U.S. Air Force Retired PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    2,432
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +16 / 3 / -1

    #75 Jersey

    when do they do the ping pong balls?
  4. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    40,833
    Likes Received:
    89
    Ratings:
    +150 / 3 / -19

    On May 22 I believe.
  5. glecco

    glecco Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2004
    Messages:
    91
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    When reckoning the odds for the Celtics getting Oden there is a tendency to assume that the first selection will invariably be Oden. In fact, even if the Celtics get the first lottery selection (19.9% lottery weighting) and because of Jefferson (and Perk) they may choose Durant. This same dilemma affects all of the 14 teams in the lottery. In a sense Oden is competing at the center position with Gasol (Memphis), Jefferson, Bogut (Milwaukee, and the number 1 selected in the 2005 draft), Stoudemire (Phoenix), Okafor (Charlotte) and nine others. Some analysts give Durant as much as a 35% possibility of being the first selected in the draft. I think it’s more like 25% Durant. This means that there is a chance that the Celts could get Oden with the second selection (18.8% lottery weighting). Assigning a 90% probability that the Celtics would choose Oden with the first selection [(0.9)x(0.199)] plus the probability of selecting him with the second lottery position if still available, [(0.25)x(0.188)] gives about a 23% chance of landing Oden. There’s a (19.9% + 18.8%) = 38.7% chance of landing either Durant or Oden.

    Oden and Durant together cover the 2 through 5 positions very well, and I don’t know of a PG available in the draft that’s likely to be taken first or second.

    I got Oden 36% in the ESPN mock draft. Maybe the Celtics should have Tom Hiensohn stay home, and send me to Secausus for the lottery.
  6. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2005
    Messages:
    5,402
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +61 / 4 / -1

    #75 Jersey

    I'd be ecstatic with the 1 or 2 pick. Durant or Oden. Personally I like Durant alot better but I'd be more than happy with Oden. Ofcourse we aren't going to get either. We had 2 high lottery picks back with Duncan and we got jinxed back then too.
  7. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    26,727
    Likes Received:
    124
    Ratings:
    +248 / 3 / -2

    There is no way on God's green earth that the C's would take Durant over Oden. I love Durant and think he'll be a 10 time all-star and franchise player, but you don't pass up a franchise center like Oden. They come along once every 8-10 years.
  8. glecco

    glecco Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2004
    Messages:
    91
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    YOU (and I) would pick Oden, but there's nothing in God's green earths that certain! As you say, Durant is very solid and could make an immediate contribution. Odds are the Celtics will get neither (so sad).
  9. patsfanofNC12

    patsfanofNC12 Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2007
    Messages:
    1,266
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    If we get a late pick I think Hibbert is a really good center (no where near as good as Oden) but still really good.
  10. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    26,727
    Likes Received:
    124
    Ratings:
    +248 / 3 / -2

    I'm totally convinced that they will get the 3rd pick. It won't be the 5th, or the 4th, it'll be the 3rd pick because there are only two special guys in this draft. :(

    Anyhow, saw this online, and I thought it was funny.

    [​IMG]
  11. scout

    scout Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    7,699
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +35 / 0 / -1

    #15 Jersey

    If the Celtics get Oden Boston could be looking at three World Champions in one year. The least likely team of the three to win, the Celtics. Oden in time will be a complete player. Even in his rookie year, he'll be very good. Foul him and he'll make his free throws. Heck, he shot a high percentage using his left hand. Jefferson had his break-out year, he's only going to get better. They double team Jefferson and Pierce is going to burn them. What team in the East is going to challenge them? Durant would be a plus, but would not give the assets of Oden, nor the chemistry. If they get the third pick, I'll vomit. There is no one close to these guys. The third player I see as coming on strong and being a force (not in the same league as these guys) is Brewer. So please Lord, give us some of that 60's love.
  12. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    26,727
    Likes Received:
    124
    Ratings:
    +248 / 3 / -2

    Scout, your on the money. Oden is one of those game changing, franchise centers that comes around once every 8-10 years. Having him and Jefferson up front for 10 years would be insane. Of course, that's why we'll pick 3rd. :(
  13. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    9,696
    Likes Received:
    21
    Ratings:
    +32 / 0 / -0

    If there is a draft lottery god, he owes us big time....

    I know there are plenty of good players out there, but to be honest, I think it's #1, #2, or bust. It's so hard to get out of the kind of rut they have been in for nearly two decades - mediocrity which begets mediocrity. The NBA is a bytch that way.
  14. patsfan55

    patsfan55 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    2,673
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    #95 Jersey

    we WILL get the first or second pick
    positive thinkin

    btw, that pic is hilarious
  15. patsfan55

    patsfan55 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    2,673
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    #95 Jersey

    supposedly ainge has made it clear that if we get the number three pick we will trade it in a package to get a vet, in the garnett, gasol, o'neal mold
    whatever happens, we'd better not trade big al

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>