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It's all about the science

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by lostjumper, Feb 4, 2010.

  1. lostjumper

    lostjumper Rookie

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    Well, at least thats whats always preached by man made global warming activists. But just a month after the IPCC had to retract their statement about the himalayan(sp?) glaciers melting when it was revealed that the there was no science to back that up, this report appears. Science is serious stuff

    This is just pathetic. Really, a climbing article says there seem to be less glaciers to climb, and the IPCC reports that as proof of global warming? It would be like me looking out my window and guessing at what the weather will be for the next week, and then calling my local news station and having them report it as fact, even if their eather instruments don't actually agreeSo now the IPCC has to retract another entire section from their 2007 report. I think most people would have to agree that it appears the IPCC put forth a theory and then did everything they could to substantiate that, instead having the science actually bear out that claim. At this point, the IPCC should just be disbanded, as much of their work has been discrdited, and a new board established. One preferably with several man mde global warming proponents, as well as several cynics instead of a board that appears to work like that Mass toll authority...
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2010
  2. lostjumper

    lostjumper Rookie

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    Wow, not a single comment all day. Then again, I guess there's not much to say...
  3. MrSparkle

    MrSparkle Rookie

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    MMGW = ROFL


    You are correct, no comments because they have not been told what their opinions are yet. Don't worry, a counter attack is being planed and when ready, they will spout it in unison. What a joke.
  4. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't see what's wrong with it. Anecdotal evidence is fine if it comes from a reasonably large number of people. If you knew 30 people who went to the Alps, and each one said, on returning home, "Boy, not much snow up there," I think it would be a reasonable observation that there wasn't much snow up there. And this is further supported by interviews with mountain guides to the Alps. It's only one type of evidence, but it's certainly a reasonable type.
  5. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for the thread Climategate have advanced on many fronts since Dec.

    In short, in the UK Jones (CRU head) is being investigated, police have been investigating a suspect who would be a leaker (insider) not a hacker.


    THe IPPC reps from Canada has resigned due to the scandals involving the IPCC. This includes the Himalayas glacier melting fraud (based on reports by hikers not even a scientific study) and the latest the report of half of the Netherlands being below sea level, which is false.

    Recall the reports of the problems with the NEw Zealand ground station records, well an investigation was ordered and ....... wait.... the original records have been 'lost', OMG the dog ate the records again!!!!!

    The biggest is the beginning of the release of the NASA emails and a report on the way data records have been handled. Now the GISS data has been shown to be CRAP.

    IOW both the GISS and CRU records, which have been the basis for all the MMGW research have been shown to be at BEST, DEEPLY FLAWED at WORST we are looking at scientific fraud.

    First a report on how the data was manipulated by the GISS, the report is public domain, and being distributed on the internet freely you can download the report at the link provided. Warning the report is 111 pages.

    first the executive summary:



    Data graphs on the divergence problem from the COmputer scientist who provided analysis for the above paper: Lots of graphical data here.

    GISS Benchmarking The Baseline Musings from the Chiefio



    BTW there is another hide the data element this time involving algore buddy J Hansen at NASA, that story starts on Page 95 and is told by S McIntyre who is the subject of the data to be hidden. McIntyre provides the context for the emails in NASA about his activities exposing the massive Y2k errors by Schmidt & Hansen. BTW HAnsen and GISS are the ones claiming this year is the hottest on record ect every year.


    New Compendium Paper on Surface Temperature Records Watts Up With That?



    No records on NZ climate records:

    Scoop: NIWA Unable To Justify Official Temperature Record



    GISS HADCRUT data divergence, again how Hansen interpolated data is an issue good read:

    Really Real Climate: The GISS Temperature Record Divergence Problem



    Of course the computer models assume a high sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 and especially MM CO2 (even though humans only produce ~3% of CO2). Now and article in NAture magazine (Advocates of the MMGW hypothesis). That the CO2 amplification is less that previously stated by the modelers. This is important since without a CO2 amplification factor there is no climate crisis that involves human activity.

    Link to Science Daily :

    New paper in Nature on CO2 amplification: “it’s less than we thought” Watts Up With That?



    India pulling out of IPCC over scandals with IPCC reportL

    India forms new climate change body - Telegraph



    Another good article on climate sensitivity and the modelers inability to explain the current 12 year period without warming in spite of CO2 levelings rising unabated.

    Really Real Climate: Another Inconvenient Truth For AGW Proponents




    Article on the latest IPCC blunder this time the sea levels and the Netherlands:

    Sea level blunder enrages Dutch minister | Radio Netherlands Worldwide




    Great summary of the politics and scandals and bad science at the IPCC over the years.

    American Thinker: IPCC: International Pack of Climate Crooks





    Link to new article peer reviewed physics paper concerning cosmic rays and cloud cover independent of Svensmark.

    Dalton Minimum Returns: New paper: Interglacials, Milankovitch Cycles and Carbon Dioxide

    download the pdf here: [1002.0597] Interglacials, Milankovitch Cycles, and Carbon Dioxide



    Well we have learned that CO2 levels are having a impact of the planet, trees are growing faster.

    Global warming makes trees grow at fastest rate for 200 years - Climate Change, Environment - The Independent

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/.../2010/02/02/solar-cycle-24-update/#more-15974
  6. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Graph on the Solar cycle compared to the Dalton min cycles:

    [​IMG]
  7. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It was cited in a publication as being peer reviewed, btw my observing it has been a cold winter is not science even if many people in NYC agree because they think it is cold.


    Spinning is one thing but really Patters.
  8. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As part of a case, anecdotal evidence is completely valid. The fact is, I've been observing a rather cold winter here too. If a lot of us are saying the winter has been cold, then chances are good that the winter has been cold. If that study represented the sum total of evidence that there is global warming, I would agree with you, but it's only a little piece of the puzzle. In fact, the Alps melting in and of itself simply proves there's a warm spell in the Alps, but if we get these types of anecdotes from a number of locales, not just in the Alps, it should give pause.
  9. lostjumper

    lostjumper Rookie

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    First of all, anecdotal evidence has been proven to be wrong often. I can say, "it feels colder this year than last year", but that doesn't mean I'm right. I could be absolutely wrong, but my perception has changed, and my memories can to. Yes, some mountain guides feel there used to be more snow 30 years ago. But they could be absolutely wrong.

    Of course, they could be right. The problem is, the IPCC report presented the information as fact that had been proved by data, when in fact it was not. This report is meant to influence policy and move shift trillions of dollars. You have to have real evidence, and since they didn't they disguised anedotes as such. That's fraudulent.
  10. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Anecdotal evidence is only one type of evidences, but it's a valid one, and photos have been circulating for years showing how landscapes have changed. I would hope the IPCC is using a lot more evidence than just those reports. But, if you have evidence of global warming by temperature reconstruction, the measurement of CO2 particles in ice, by studies showing warm climate plant and animal life migrating north, as well as by anecdotal evidence, I think the latter is useful in making the case. Why cast aspersions on climbers and a masters degree candidate? I think that's sort of paranoid. Yes, it's possible they are lying and stand to reap huge incomes by doing so, but without an iota of evidence against them, I think you have weak case.
  11. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Climate Change
    1 Winter Cold
    2 Summer Hot

    Where does Al Gore go in the winter-----:confused::confused:
  12. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Anecdotal evidence is what?!? This is science we're talking here right? LOLOLOLOL!!!

    The biggest ponzi scheme in history fellas. Been that way since day 1.

    It's telling when the MMGW crowd's supporters are defending anecdotal evidence as certification for scientific theory.
  13. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Anecdotal evidence is only a small piece, but of course to tout the Republican line, you have to try to exaggerate its importance to MMGW. (By the way, if you read the article you would know that the scientific community is not defending particularly this evidence, though I am.) If the papers state, "Various people have reported that the Alps are melting, therefore there is global warming," that of course is a fallacious argument. However, if the papers merely state that there are numerous reports of the Alps melting, then it's simply a piece of info to keep consider along with all sorts of other reports. If all your relatives went into your warehouse and said, "How, RW, the place is really dirty," would you dismiss it because it's anecdotal or would it carry some weight. Personally, I think when mountain climbers and guides (who probably have no particular political agenda) report melting, it's probably pretty honest. Or do you have a particular distrust for climbers and their guides?
  14. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Translation: Anecdotal evidence is fine if it supports your side of the argument, but not if it supports the other.

    How about this weekend's potentially record-breaking snowstorm in the mid-Atlantic states? That's about 30 million people that have some anecdotal evidence, so does that count?
  15. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    BZZZT! Sorry, but nothing could be further from the truth. As part of a scientifc process of a (supposedly) peer reviewed study regardind data that can be measured empirically, anecdotal evidence is not even remotely valid. Thanks for playing.
  16. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    And yet another scandal surfaces. The MMGW alarmists are becoming complete jokes.
  17. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Of course it's valid. In fact, it's used when gathering info from the past for which scientific info isn't always available. Toyota right now is struggling against a substantial body of anecdotal evidence with regard to the Prius. In technology, anecdotal evidence is regularly coming from the field, from end-users, and normally you look at the quantity of it. You don't conduct a formal investigation if 50 out of 50 end users are reporting a problem. Not sure what field you're in, but anecdotal evidence is certainly quite useful in many fields as a source of information. I worked for two of the most successful companies around for almost 20 years, and we used to rely on end user feedback all the time.
  18. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The IPCC report is huge, and the deniers simply go through and pull out individual paragraphs out of context. I agree there has to be solid empirical evidence, but it certainly does no harm if it's supported by widespread anecdotal evidence, and in my opinion mountain climbers do not have a political axe to grind, so if they report the Alps are melting, they're probably reporting the truth. Alone, it means nothing, but with other evidence it would support the idea that something odd is happening. As far as the Himalayas go, the issue was the rate of melting. The report stated that the Himilayas could melt by 2035, which geologists say is absurd because the ice is so that, but I have not seen articles that question whether melting is actually taking place.

    World's glaciers continue to melt at historic rates | Environment | The Guardian
  19. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Not for a (supposedly) peer reviewed scientific study where empirical data is (or at least should be) readily available.

    Of course, the MMGW alarmists have no problems inventing whatever data figures they want, so it is no wonder such poor anecdotal evidence seems to work well for you.
    This sort of statement shows you don't know what you are talking about (as usual). There is absolutely nothing "anecdotal" about Toyota's problems. What happens is people called "statisticians" look at mounds and mounds of data to compare the failure rate of acceleration systems for automobiles in general compared to the failure rate of acceleration systems in the Honda ABC. If the failure rate of the ABC is X% greater than the failure rate of cars in general, then they institute a recall.

    What do you think happened? A couple of people said "hey, my Honda doesn't cease accelerating as well as my old car" and so they instituted a billion dollar recall? The real world doesn't work that way.
  20. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I doubt if anecdotal reports are peer reviewed. They probably are used as supporting information. For instance, the erroneous report that the Himalayas could melt by 2035, amounted to one paragraph in a 3 volume report. I would guess there is a variety of evidence in the IPCC report. Have you ever read a science book? If you have, you might know that mixed in with strict scientific evidence is the sort of casual evidence that helps tie a story together. For instance, I've been studying brain processes. While much of what I read is based on detailed scientific reports, there is also anecdotal evidence mixed in in part because there are limitations to how much scientific evidence one can gathering from a living human being.

    They may or may not do a formal statistical analysis beyond just tracking the number of complaints and reports they get. They may not interview the subjects to see if they are telling the truth; they may choose a sample size of cars to conduct a technical analysis on; etc. Your example with ABC is extremely primitive and hardly amounts to a serious statistical analysis. What do you mean by failure rate? What analysis will they do to determine a failure? Anecdotal reports from customers?
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2010

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