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IT IS ON: How I See the Pats/Colts

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by aluminum seats, Oct 29, 2007.

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  1. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats In the Starting Line-Up

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    Another reason the Pats-Colts match-up this week is so fascinating is the fact that it’s a rematch of a huge game that was played so recently, but there have been so many changes, particularly on the Pats’ side, that it’s been hard to find analysis that isn’t based on outdated perceptions. So, I thought I’d take a look at last year’s game, and how the teams have changed since then.

    One thing that jumps out when you look at the stats from the AFC title game was just how badly the Pats were outplayed according to the stat sheet. The Colts had 32 first downs to the Pats’ 17; they outgained the Pats 455 yards to 319, with edges in net rushing and passing 125-93 and 330-226, respectively. The Pats did not score an offensive touchdown over the last 40 minutes of the game, managing just a pair of field goals during that time.

    In fact, the Pats only averaged 24 ppg throughout last season. How dramatically the offense has been transformed has been well-covered, but it’s worth looking at again: the Pats’ leap from 24 ppg to 41.4 is really remarkable.

    The Pats’ defense, meanwhile, has managed to stay on par with the ppg level of last year, when opponents managed 14.8 against the Pats, compared to 15.9 this year. This is one example where the numbers really don’t tell the story, though. The Pats’ defense has naturally lost its intensity at times this year, as the team has been up 30-40 points per game. With the addition of Thomas, Harrison being back and healthy, and a secondary that is (knock wood) so far managing to stay on the field, I don’t think anyone would argue that this year’s defensive squad isn’t markedly better than last year’s.

    The Colts, meanwhile, have continued to score points this year on par with years past, including 2006 (their average ppg is actually up about five points). At this point, the Colts’ offense is a known quantity—unlike the Pats’ offensive package, which has an entirely new arsenal for the Colts to digest, the Pats’ players and coaches know the Colts personnel quite well. As always, the key is stopping them, but again, the Pats’ defense right now is quite simply a different one than last January.

    As far as the Colts’ defense goes, they’ve improved from last year overall, shaving nearly a TD per game off their average. Keep in mind, though, that improving on last year’s regular season defense isn’t hard to do. A better measuring stick is the post-season, when a healthy Bob Sanders made—and continues to make—a big difference for the entire squad. But again, this is the defense the Pats saw in January, while the Pats’ defense, like the offense, has several different, and improved, pieces.

    So how does this break down? It is, as everyone knows, a game between the two best teams in the league, far away. And that includes the Colts’ defense, which, shockingly, might be the best the Patriots see. But we’re talking about an offense that is shattering records, so the points will come. Will they come for the Colts? There certainly won’t be any letdown for this game from the Pats’ defense. No, I think we’ll see Manning walking off the field with that look quite a few times, tugging off his chin strap.

    The motivation of the Pats this year is well-documented, and in many ways it’s been building to this game. After the bye week of course, it’ll build to something else, something bigger. But this is obviously IT for now. The game might be close, and it might be safer to think that way, but I just don’t see it.

    My prediction is that the Patriots take it going away, 40-17.
     
  2. LoveDemPats

    LoveDemPats Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Boy, I really have no idea what will be the end result.

    I feel that the main difference between these two extremely talented and well coached teams is flexibility.

    The colts are coached and taught a system that is very productive, and effective. They put teams on their heals very quickly. The total plan is leathal. That offence punches the oposition in the face over and over, and the D is very quick to pounce on any and all weakness, or trepidation. In a word, they attack on both sides of the ball. The colts seem to be flexible at the point of attack with their qb. Manning is very capable of reading the d, and changing the play. He is quick, and smart. They are a little banged up, but they will still be able to press the oposition because of Manning.

    Again, they are flexible because of Manning. If the pats D is able to take certain things away, then the onus is on Payton, and he has proven in the past to be able to shoulder that weight.

    The pats are flexible in that they game plan each week for the oposition. (as has been noted before, the colts are more about just being real good at their system.) This game planning has provided the pats with countless wins in the past even though they had inferior talent. This being the case, it seems that the Patriots could actually bring more pressure against Manning than he has ever felt before. By pressure I mean the over all squeeze. The pats are working very well as a total unit right now. The game planning has gotten to a stage where the total package is coming into focus. The offense scores so often, and the D is starting to realize that the oposition will have no recourse but to throw it up. Asante is definetely realizing this. ;)

    So for me, it seems to be about where the flexibility resides. Is it at the single point, (the qb) or is there a total package that is designed to bring out the weekness of the oposition?
     
  3. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    I will take the 24 points. What is the wager??
     
  4. Tony Cahncuhd

    Tony Cahncuhd On the Roster

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    23.

    Ever heard of 'Rithmetic?
     
  5. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats In the Starting Line-Up

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    Heh.

    You're a Colts guy, I guess........let's hear a prediction.
     
  6. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    whups, thought I read 41-17. My bad. 23.
     
  7. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    Yeah, I am, heh.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2007
  8. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think Peter King said this and I totally agree: If we lose to the Colts this week, we are still capable of beating them in Indy in the playoffs. If we win this week, the Colts will not be able to beat us in Foxboro in the playoffs.

    This is going to be the longest week ever.
     
  9. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    If Colts win, does not lock up HFA. If Pats win, lock it up.

    Anything can happen in either venue in the Playoffs.
     
  10. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats In the Starting Line-Up

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    So, any thoughts on the game, or just little one-liners.
     
  11. SeauOUCH

    SeauOUCH On the Game Day Roster

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    I also dont see this game as being close. This team is not even close to last years team in the AFCCG, & I still feel we should of won that game!

    Last year we were KILLING the Colts in the 1st half ( & give the Colts all the credit in the world for not packing it in & coming back to win ) but the combination of flu, injuries, officiating, Reche Caldwell & playing a very physical SD team on the west coast the week before just gassed out or defense.

    I think if the Colts are to have any chance they HAVE to come out fast. If we get a big lead early this year we have the weapons to put them away. If the Colts are forced to become one dimesional & abandon the run they are going to be in big trouble.

    Pats 49 Colts 21
     
  12. cavtroop

    cavtroop 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    If you are looking for anything intelligent from our resident Colts troll, fuggedaboutit. He's good for the occasional one-liner, but thats about it.
     
  13. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yeah, I guess so. Thing is, I'd like to know if Indy fans think the Colts are gonna win this--guess I'll check out their boards.
     
  14. Double G

    Double G In the Starting Line-Up

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    HBM, why do you think if the Colts win, HFA is not locked up? Do you seriously think the Colts will lose two games the rest of the way if they beat the Patriots?

    Who out of Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee (all at the dome by the way), Kansas City, Oakland, Atlanta, Baltimore and San Diego has a shot?

    We're talking about two losses from that group, just can't see it AND that goes on the assumption that the Patriots win out to end up 15-1 with Pittsburgh and Baltimore still lurking out there.

    Discuss......
     
  15. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    J'ville, TN, SD, and Balt are all viable options. That is not to disrespect the other 4 on that list. Colts laid an egg last year at Texans, IIRC, cost us a shot at a Bye. Also, made the Miami game a must win, that ended up to be a close contest. So, in short, I think they still have it in them to screw something up. However, I have been impressed with their methodical nature of taking care of business week to week. Manning is as focused as ever, and the defense has a lot of confidence. 9 games remaining, we lose 2-3. Eight games for NE, you lose 0-2. I just think NE has a legit shot to run it, and Indy will certainly falter, whether it be this week, or down the road.
     
  16. patriots#6fan

    patriots#6fan Rookie

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    hey guys, i was just wondering if belichek started taping the colts calls yet? cause its monday already, we should start gettin on that
     
  17. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    Let's say this. We had our ass handed to us in the first half against Denver and Carolina. Yet when those folks looked up at the scoreboard, they trailed at half. AND in each game, we came out and scored a TD to start the 3rd qtr. As someone stated, a slow start by the Colts and it could be a difficult task to make up that ground.

    Offensively, I think the Colts can have success. I think Marvin will need to be dressed and ready to play. No Ugoh, and Manning's day gets a lot tougher. I think Addai will also have success. I hope they keep the same formula of a balanced attack, and don't abandon the run if early success eludes them.

    Defensively, I think it will be status quo, they will give up the short stuff, but I think they can contain the yards after catch.

    Obviously, we need to protect the ball, and steal it once or twice. We have been on the winning end of that pretty much every week, as have the Pats. Turnover margin might make the difference.

    ST's-you have a decided advantage in the return game. If we give up field position, we're in trouble.

    Have I said much? Probably not. I think we have to play our best game to have a shot, while you may not have to be at your 100% best, and you might still drop 40. IOW, mental mistakes might doom us, whereas you may be able to overcome. NE has a greater margin for error in this one. Should be a great battle, I just hope I don't have an H-Attack before the game:eek:
     
  18. Double G

    Double G In the Starting Line-Up

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    HBM,
    I know you and I have butted heads on this forum, but I have to tell you that I respect your knowledge and your opinions and the fact that you are willing to admit you COULD see a scenario where your team may lose to the Patriots or a couple of other teams.

    Your team has looked terrific as defending Super Bowl Champions. Their offense is still dominant and your defense has stepped it up about 12 notches.

    Your team impresses the Hell out of me and should the Patriots lose Sunday, I'll honestly tip my cap and say the better team won to you AND ONLY YOU. The rest of the Colts fans who have come here are total assclowns (that is not however a reflection on you)..........................
     
  19. chunkypony

    chunkypony Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    No, he doesn't do that until wednesday. We have plenty of tape to go off of already, so we don't film their actual practices until wednesday. Don't worry, we'll get to it.
     
  20. He Ban Me

    He Ban Me Banned

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    That sounds pretty sincere, so I will take it that way, thank you. I can't break down the X's and O's like some of the heavy weights, but I think I know a little. One thing I don't really get is how (like on the Star Board) some (many) seem to just totally disregard an upcoming opponent. Sure, we should beat the majority of them, but I guarantee you a few were a little nervous after Carolina ate up the first 11 minutes of the game this past Sunday. In our case, maybe we should hope for four 11 minute NE drives, perhaps we could hold you to 28 then :D. Surely we could make it close, or even steal it! It does feel like roles are reversed a bit, in terms of how these teams are winning. I could go awhile, but it would be 90% about the Colts, which folks probably don't care to read. Here is to a good, hard fought game, with no injuries and few (hopefully) poor calls!
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2007
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