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Issues on offense


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Even so, the biggest and most obvious problem we have on offense is the health of the starting O-Line, specifically Stephen Neal. Super Bowl XLII, the beginning of the 2008 season, and the times which he has been out of the starting line-up this season have shown how valuable he is to this O-Line. With him, teams are unable to generate pressure up the middle and Brady has more time to throw. Without him, teams have generated pressure up the middle forcing Brady to make quick reads and, sometimes, bad throws. Not only that, but I strongly believe that his absence is directly linked to Brady's injuries this year as well (meaning that I believe if he had been in, Brady wouldn't be suffering from a rib injury right now). Yes, there are other issues on offense. Most have been addressed in this thread. Rookie playcaller, Brady recovering from injury, lack of a WR3, injuries to the RB corps. However, the health of the offensive line is the biggest reason for our lack of offensive production. A healthy Stephen Neal in the playoffs would help to vastly improve our offensive production.

Agreed, but IMO an equal amount of blame needs to be allocated to Kazur. His ankle injuries have greatly diminished his ability to handle both the inside and outside rush-which coincides with your assesment of Neal's value to the offense. I'm of the thinking that Neal helped Kazur out immensely.
 
It's not a simple issue. Unfortunately it's multidimensional with various negative feedbacks from less major deficiencies all adding up to a quantum waveform of negative probability for success.


1. Brady is way too fixated on 2 players at the expense of his other options

2. Unfortunately, these other receiving options (TE, 3rd, 4th WRs, but NOT Faulk) are not playing well enough consistently to earn the QB's confidence thus see item #1. I like Aiken and Edelperson but The Gaffer was a more consistent and productive option.

3. Brady is missing on most long passes and throwing right into coverage too often. He also stares at his primary target too often pre snap. Siting up close and using my binocs and saw this in the Atlanta game numerous times. Not always but far more often than in past years. Sure, he's had success doing this, notably at the end of the last game as he looked over at Welker who got a great screen and made his patented move to get that last important 1st down to kill the Bills. Better defenses exploit this.

4. Brady has multiple injuries, shoulder, ribs, finger...

5. Moss has been inconsistent and in a funk. The double coverage and its success has goten to his head

6. Piss poor play calling by the OC

7. Stud ORG Neal missing games has weakened the OL and Kaczur sucks this year for whatever reason

8. Koppen and the guards keep leting Brady get rushed up the middle too often
 
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All true. But I think there has been a drop in Brady's productivity (primarily due to lack of accuracy) the last couple of weeks and that looks like injury.

We don't really know the extent of Brady's injury because of how secretive they are. It could possibly be the main factor in him not hitting his deep throws. But my main issue is not the physical aspect of Brady's game, but the mental aspect. What has affected him mentally that has caused tunnel vision?
 
We don't really know the extent of Brady's injury because of how secretive they are. It could possibly be the main factor in him not hitting his deep throws. But my main issue is not the physical aspect of Brady's game, but the mental aspect. What has affected him mentally that has caused tunnel vision?

I think you are right that it is a combination of things, including the design of the offense, the play calling, the skills of and his confidence in other receivers. But his interceptions have increased the last few games while his TD/int ratio has shifted the last few games and I think the trend tends to indicate recent changes. Injury is the only thing I am aware of. even with all the other problems, up until recently Brady was on track to have one of his most productive seasons. He did not practice again today, so it appears that he has a pretty bad injury. I think Brady is as good as it gets, but given his apparent health issues, another weak of no practice, and his diminished production last week, I would not be surprised to see Hoyer on Sunday. I think he could put up better numbers against Jacksonville's porous secondary than Brady did last week. That said, Brady will probably put up 300 yds.
 
We don't really know the extent of Brady's injury because of how secretive they are. It could possibly be the main factor in him not hitting his deep throws. But my main issue is not the physical aspect of Brady's game, but the mental aspect. What has affected him mentally that has caused tunnel vision?

That is my question too.. the first thought that comes to mind is his lack of trust for the 3rd receiver position, combined with the fact that both TE's are in a lot more blocking schemes than usual, over being released into routes. This leaves him, more or less, with either a 4th WR option, or Faulk, the specialist.
 
How can WR depth be the problem? Is the Pats WR depth worse than in '01-'05? Or is the problem that since the #1 and #2 options are better, Brady is not as vigilant about looking for the #3 option, the TE, or the RB dump pass?
 
Just to look from the other side:

2) Other receivers have remained on the market and could have been brought in post-Galloway. Matt Jones is still out there, just as an example.

I don't know what Jones' status is with the NFL but I would have liked to have seen him brought in.
 
How can WR depth be the problem? Is the Pats WR depth worse than in '01-'05? Or is the problem that since the #1 and #2 options are better, Brady is not as vigilant about looking for the #3 option, the TE, or the RB dump pass?

#3 has never been consistent this year, consequently there was no rhythm established there.
 
I suppose it is true that if receiver #3 is consistent but not very good, that could be better than the inconsistency this year due to Galloway not panning out and the various injures. Is that what you are suggesting? My point is only that the Patriots have much more overall talent at the skill positions than they had in the early part of the decade, which suggests the problem is not mainly the identity of the #3 WR. Unless the issue is that, in the past, all the Pats receivers were at about equal talent levels, so Brady did not develop strong preferences about who to throw to. Now that they have more talented options in Moss and Welker, it could negatively impact offensive balance since it makes Brady less trusting in a WR3 than he would have been in the same exact person/skill set back in '03-'05. Is that possible?

#3 has never been consistent this year, consequently there was no rhythm established there.
 
How can WR depth be the problem? Is the Pats WR depth worse than in '01-'05? Or is the problem that since the #1 and #2 options are better, Brady is not as vigilant about looking for the #3 option, the TE, or the RB dump pass?

Who is better? Sam Aiken or David Patten? Julian Edelman or Troy Brown? Isiah Stanback or David Givens? WR depth is a problem when the guys behind Moss & Welker are a special teamer and a 7th round rookie QB.

I think people forget how deep and well-rounded the receiving corp used to be. Obviously the 2007 group blows them all away, but the Brown-Branch-Givens-Patten (and Bethel, who was decent) group is pretty damn good. Honestly, I think I would take that over Welker-Moss+scrap. In 2003 & 2004, there were 5 guys listed right there that you could put on the field, who could contribute and who had a versatile set of skills. Right now, we only have 2 legitimate NFL wide receivers on the squad. Aiken may be the third, when healthy & has more reps, but for now, he's injured and an unknown.
 
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I think the OL is playing with one hand tied behind their back by the playcalling.

After the Miami game, I wrote a long thread in which I showed that Brady was hiking the ball with one second on the clock from the empty backfield set.

The Miami DL (4 of them) were firing off the ball BEFORE our center!! Before our linemen!

This should not be happening.

When you allow the defense to attack like that, and you can't make them pay, your offense will suffer. Maybe it's Brady's fault that we can't make them pay but I'd like to see them not be so confident in attacking us. Becoming more unpredictable would add that element.

Good point. i did notice that the Dolphins were getting a jump on pass plays. This is especially apparent on the game losing interception. Their left end beat Kaczur before he even got out of his break. He was well into the backfield.
 
Great point. Great point.

Who is better? Sam Aiken or David Patten? Julian Edelman or Troy Brown? Isiah Stanback or David Givens? WR depth is a problem when the guys behind Moss & Welker are a special teamer and a 7th round rookie QB.

I think people forget how deep and well-rounded the receiving corp used to be. Obviously the 2007 group blows them all away, but the Brown-Branch-Givens-Patten (and Bethel, who was decent) group is pretty damn good. Honestly, I think I would take that over Welker-Moss+scrap. In 2003 & 2004, there were 5 guys listed right there that you could put on the field, who could contribute and who had a versatile set of skills. Right now, we only have 2 legitimate NFL wide receivers on the squad. Aiken may be the third, when healthy & has more reps, but for now, he's injured and an unknown.
 
Who is better? Sam Aiken or David Patten? Julian Edelman or Troy Brown? Isiah Stanback or David Givens? WR depth is a problem when the guys behind Moss & Welker are a special teamer and a 7th round rookie QB.



That's an unfair comparison.

Patten was a starting WR for us, so was Brown and eventually Givens.

In 01 our starters were Brown and Patten, our third option was Bert Emanuel/Torrance Small/Charles Johnson.

In 03, our starters were Branch and Brown, Patten was injured for the most part, and Givens was a rookie and mainly played STs. Our third option was Dedric Ward.

In 04, our starters were Givens and Branch, with Troy our third option. This was a good group of receivers, but I'd still take Moss and Welker plus Edelman/Aiken simply for the fact that Moss and Welker both command double teams. Also take into the fact that Faulk has developed into a quasi-reciever out of the backfield (and a damn reliable one at that), plus Watson, so I can understand why the depth of our receivers shouldn't really be an issue, relative to those SB winning teams.
 
That is what I am also leaning towards. It's not just one simple thing or it would have been diagnosed and corrected by now.

I think BB has to be credited for being patient and maintaining course rather than trying to force things. That is a testament to his 35 years of experience in football. He probably has much more patience and foresight than 99% of us when it comes to waiting for an offense to click (and defense).

In all sincerity, I really don't think this is our year- it's basically a rebuilding year and should be one anyway because we've been languishing for a few years now and the dramatic offensive output we had in '07 disguised a lot of problems that have been exposed now, also we excused quite a few things last year because Cassel was the focus most of the time and the fall guy as well.

This is not to rule out that we could accomplish anything this year, because with Brady, it's always "never say never." That's the perk of having Brady and BB, because as along as we have those two, we are always in a position to contend.

The dynamic duo has served us well. But how lone can you lean on two people. We used to have a depth in both the field and the front office. Now, the cupboard is a little bare. The team is pulling a little extra hard on the talents of these two. Maybe this is our period of rebuilding and finding new contributors.

On the D-Line, you have Myron Pryor and Mike Wright stepping up big time. But no one, even Mayo, is making crucial plays. In the secondary, we have Leigh Bodden and Meriweather. But both have been inconsistent. More importantly, Bodden most likely won't be here next year. He wants big money, and we've seen how that plays out. Whealtley has been terrible and Whilite at least looks serviceable. At least Chung and McGowan are both young and rising.

On offense, Volmer has been a huge surprise. Koppen and Kaczur have been less than surprising. I'm not saying that Koppen is bad, but he never seems to really step up in big games. Instead of dominating, he usually gets dominated against teams such as the Jets and Chargers. I don't think I even have to say anything about Kaczur.

But there is something about our receiving game that does need saying. We have become predictable when we pass the ball. Brady is more effective out of the shotgun because he can see the field. He is also more vulnerable out of that formation. Defenses almost always play the pass when we are in the formation. The reason is because rarely get more than 15 yards out of a running play in the shotgun formation. More importantly, many of those runs are by Kevin Faulk. Maroney usually gets hit touches when Brady is under center. These little tendencies usually give defensive linemen and linebackers the little edge that they may need to make big plays: especially when there are only three of them rushing the passer.

Just to stay on topic, the passing game that was once our strength, is sputtering. We can't rely on it to close out games. It has become predictable. Defenders have tons of game tape on us and have an idea of where we like to go with the ball. That is the major difference between this year and 07: the surprise is gone. People know what we like and have seen how to stop it.

One way to better protect ourselves from that is to stop relying so much on our wide receivers to make plays. We are better suited as a running team because we have better depth at running back and tight end than we do at wide receiver. If we can relearn to pass the ball out of running formations, we can give ourselves an edge that we used to have.

That is what we used to do. We didn't always have the best talent at receiver, but we made up for that by not over relying on that. Givens, Branch, and Patton haven't done much since they left here. Patton may have had one decent season, but that was with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. That lack of production shows us how little talent that receiving core had. To compensate for that, we incorporated other players into the passing game. We used tight ends, running backs, and occasionally line backers. These options weren't exercised frequently, but they were sprinkled in to give defenders the illusion of balance.

Now flash forward to today. We're usually in pass heavy formations. Sometimes in critical short yardage situations, we don't even sell the run: such as the failed fourth down conversion against the Colts. I'm not saying that we have to make drastic changes, but if we utilize Watson, Baker, and Maroney in the passing game more often, we may create some favorable mismatches down the line for Welker and Moss.
 
If half the problem is the OC and half the problem is an injured quarterback, then I suggest that the OC be fired after the Super Bowl, no matter what the result of the rest of the season.

Good write up on the problems we've been having on offense:

For Brady, all routes lead to Welker, Moss - The Boston Globe

As much as people would like to indict O'Brien, mostly because he is an unknown/dispensible, I do think at least half the blame has to go to Brady.

Unlike the early years, the number of receptions per player, after Moss/Welker, is a steep drop, and the next highest number of receptions belongs to Faulk which is a bad sign because we know he is usually in there as a down specialist. He is not a receiver in the true sense of the word.

I have not put my finger on it yet, but I am wagering that this is contributing in a big way to our 2nd half woes.
 
If half the problem is the OC and half the problem is an injured quarterback, then I suggest that the OC be fired after the Super Bowl, no matter what the result of the rest of the season.

You want to fire him before he's even had a chance to evolve? Don't forget McDaniels also stunk it up in '05 before becoming starting to peak last year.
 
You are correct. I don't like to have coordinators who are given a couple of years to learn the job. It is much, much better to hire comnpetent coordinators.


You want to fire him before he's even had a chance to evolve? Don't forget McDaniels also stunk it up in '05 before becoming starting to peak last year.
 
You are correct. I don't like to have coordinators who are given a couple of years to learn the job. It is much, much better to hire comnpetent coordinators.

Even then, they have to absorb BB's philosophy of offense. There's a learning curve one way or another.

Unless Weiss comes back, which is unlikely based on what I have read.
 
Even then, they have to absorb BB's philosophy of offense. There's a learning curve one way or another.

Unless Weiss comes back, which is unlikely based on what I have read.

I would have preferred to bring in a competent coordinator this year over giving O'Brien the job. Now that we've suffered through this year, it's a bit of an open question as to whether O'Brien will improve enough next year to offset bringing someone new in and having him go through a learning curve.

But I think I'd have to agree with Mark on this one.
 
You are correct. I don't like to have coordinators who are given a couple of years to learn the job. It is much, much better to hire comnpetent coordinators.

1.) McDaniels went from "incompetent" (using your term) to one of the very best offensive coordinators in the game. Being an NFL O.C. requires on the job training. Also, go to almost any message board in the NFL, and you'll find people *****ing about that team's coordinators.

2.) Look around the football world and you'll find that there are very few people who could step into the Patriots system and immediately be "competent". Changing the system at this point would be folly.

What I think might be helpful is the bringing in of someone to serve as a 'consultant' during the offseason and through training camp. That person can do the self scouting as a relative outsider, can recommend some adjustments (I'd like to see more slants, more crossing patterns, more motion for Moss and an increased dedication to the running game early in games to wear down opponents), and can hopefully explain how even #1 running backs in a RBBC system can be used with more variety.
 
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