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Israels capabilty to bomb Iran...Irans possible counter-measures after that.

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Blue Collar, Jul 24, 2006.

  1. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    History.
    Israeli intelligence confirmed Iraq's intention of producing weapons at Osiraq, the Israeli gov't decided to attack...According to some estimates, Iraq in 1981 was still as much as 5 to 10 years away from the ability to buid a nuclear weapon. Others estimated at the time that Iraq might get it's first such weapon within a year or two...

    Prime Minister Begin feared that his party would lose the next election and feared that the opposition party would not preempt prior to the production of the first iraqi nuclear bomb...

    The raid would have to occur before it's first fuel was to be loaded, before the reactor went ''HOT'' so as not to endanger the surrounding community..

    The target was distant: 1,100 km from Israel.

    Preperations included building target mock-ups and flying full scale dress-rehearsal missions... The aircrews, were selected from the cream of the IAF's fighter corps... The IDF Chief of staff. Lt. Gen Rafael (Raful) Eitan, briefed the alternative as our destruction''.

    At 15:55 on 07 june 1981, the first F-15 and F-16's roared off the runway from Eltzion Air Force planes flew over Jordanian, Saudi, and Iraqi airspace.
    After a tense but uneventful low-level navigation route the fighters reached their Target.. They popped up at 17:35 and quickly identified the dome gleaming in the afternoon sunlight...


    Iraqi defenses were caught by surprise and opened fire to late..

    In one Minute and Twenty seconds the reactor lay in ruins..
    http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/Osirak.html

    Now in 2006 There is talk about Israel and The U.S and Doing the same thing to IRAN.....Here's a link to Israels capability and possible help from The U.S...
    http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060717-105737-9603r.htm
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2006
  2. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good research and if it happens be prepared for $5/gallon on the gas.
    IMO...The U.S./Japan alliance in conjunction with the Russia/China alliance will secretly be in agreement on this if and when it happens.

    Putin and Bush have never been closer because both share the same problem as well as China and Japan to a lesser extent. Radical Islam will only be limited by SuperPower allignment.
  3. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    What does everyone in this forum Believe Israel and the U.S. should Do about Iran and it's Nuclear facilties??
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2006
  4. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Syria Issued a Warning to Israel not to attack Syria..

    Hang on everybody. with Condoleeza Issueing A Public Statement to the World that the BUSH Administration will let Israel take care of buisness..
    The Fuse is Lit in the Mid EAST..
    What should the Bush Administration Do Now????
  5. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are many in the Middle East who have a thought they dare not publicly speak. All the years of Egyptians, Jordanians, Saudi Arabians, Iraqi's etc...complaining about Israel's treatment of the Palestinians has brought power to Hamas and Hizbollah.

    Hamas and Hizbollah are better organized and better equipped than some countries. Kofi Anan wants to mediate this problem...but wait...Hizbollah is not even a country...how is that for the screwed up nature of the Middle East.

    So...this is more the problem of the Middle East than the United States but the United States will do the dirty work here along with the Middle Easts new savior Israel....imagine that.

    This problem was not born out of republicans, or because of Bush...it was created by Jew-Hating Arabs themselves...they brought Hamas and Hizbollah to power to fight the Jewish because they are NOT STATES and thus ARE NOT ACCOUNTABLE TO ANYONE in terms of agreements.

    IMO...Iran will be dealt with by the United States with the secret approval of Japan, Russia & China. While the rest of the Middle East will condem us...they will be happy that the wolf of the Middle East has been nutered...this will be the most secret alliance ever on earth. Iran will lose and Syria will lose the most as whatever power they once had (Irans threat of nukes) dissappears.

    Lebanon will function more like a government as Hizbollah is eliminated from all government positions. Hamas will then dissappear as the Palestianians come to realize they can better make deals with Israel than Hamas can terrorize them.

    The extremist government of Iran will be overthrown as they are very much despised by the young students of the country anyways.

    This will play out over the next 5-7 years...Condoleeza Rice will become the most powerfull woman in the world...becoming the 1st woman President in either 2008 or 2012.

    All of this will play out when Iran is bombed back 20 years into existance. Let's not forget that out tactical nukes explode below ground with the majority of the force directed downwards. These strikes will be nuclear but it will not be Hiroshima. We're talking extremely localized devastation followed by an immediate
    U.N. force deployed.
  6. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    Get the f--k out of the region and watch it on CNN. When we get the troops home, we start building nuke plants and never worry about oil again.. I can dream, can't I?
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2006
  7. Blue Collar

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    With syria issueing a warning to Israel about attacking syria..
    And condoleeza rice expressing the bush administrations plans of not intervening...And Iran working steadfast on their nuclear capability to process plutonium for(MORE THAN LIKELY WEAPONS GRADE) ability to produce a nuclear bomb.....I ask all forum members to post what bush should do ? Attack Irans nuclear facilities alone or with ISRAEL....Or approach the matter like bush did with DPRK...what say you all?
  8. Mainefan

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    The possibility, of course, is the elephant in the room. Everyone knows that, including Iran.

    I'm not so sure that Iran's air defenses are not as advanced as Iraq's were in 1981. I'm also not sure that the Iranian air force would be no problem for Israel.

    We're definitely in unknown territory here.

    As for Syria's warnings, they can be dismissed. Israel has no intention of attacking Syria, and if it decided to do so, it's Syria that should be worried, not Israel.

    Wistahpatsfan, I understand where you're coming from--but what you suggest is a dream and cannot be anything else. We can't withdraw from the Middle East, thanks to the lack of foresight and effort on the part of every President since Eisenhower.

    There was a time in the 1950s and 1960s, when America thought it could do anything it put its mind to, going to the moon being the peak of such accomplishments. But we never took the next step--not to Mars, but to energy independence.

    I wait, with little hope, for the Presidential candidate who says, "If you elect me, I will oversee a Manhattan Project to create an everlasting supply of cheap energy, not only for us, but for the world. We will gather the best minds, the best organizers and managers, the most talented and driven people in the country, and give them enough money to do the job. I personally will spend whatever time is necessary to make this happen. This is my job #1 and our job #1 and until we accomplish it, we will put whatever we have to on hold. This is my promise and my pledge to you and this is what I want history to judge me by."

    But of course, that pledge, truthfully delivered, would take more courage than we've seen from any political figure in my lifetime.
  9. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    Too bad the liberals won't let us build those nuke plants, huh...? Of course don't forget, as I like to say, more people have died in Ted Kennedy's car than from all the nuclear disasters in the United States combined.
  10. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Morning, care to opine on the thread topic? Your former military service man right? so you should feel comfortable in laying out your plan to this issue and what you would want the U.S. to do??
  11. Gumby

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    Iran's air defenses really won't come into play. They are better than Iraq but the real reason Isreal can't do an air strike is that the distance is just way too far. Unless we sold them a B1B they could never hit Iran by air.

    But that is precisely why Isreal has been pursuing cruise missile technology and submarine capability for the last 10 years. (I'd be willing to bet even sometimes stealing from us when we wont sell it)

    If they decide they need to take out Iran; they will use cruise missiles that the air defenses can't hit. The only question is do they have enough of a strike capability to use anything less than nukes to do it. My guess is no.

    Iran has so hardened and buried in their mountains all their stuff (also hiding in from satellite coverage); the only think that will take it out is bunker busters with a nuclearwarhead. If you can pick the right mountain that they hid it under.

    If it all comes to that it will be real real ugly.

    If the US and Isreal ever want to get serious; they need to foment an non-attributable insurrection group in Iran and let the mullahs get a taste of their own medicine. Unfortunately fascists like these guys are real good at inhumanely putting down insurrections with no regard to 'geneva conventions' or 'human rights' while the world media will just turn away and ignore it.
  12. Mainefan

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    Yes, but earlier in this thread, a military expert with lots of experience with the Israeli airforce said that Israel had two 707 tankers and that it had extended the range of its bombers. The expert said it could achieve 30-40 hits on Iranian territory with this configuration.

    I don't know where you've gotten the info about the cruise missiles and submarines--but I must admit, I haven't heard of it. I doubt that Israel has built long range cruise missiles on its own--could the US have given them some? I also wonder about missile-launching submarines...making these is a major industrial enterprise....

    Got some sources? I'm not challenging you, I'm just looking for information.
  13. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Your pro bush! and a patriot who served our country in the service....I would like to hear your clear Opinion on Iran and what bush or Israel should do about Irans nuclear capability....?
  14. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    What about you Pfiel, your currently in the servise and pro bush with respect to his foreign policies...What do you believe Bush or Israel whether a joint mission, or approval of the bush administration to let Israel take out Irans nuclear capability????lets hear your thoughts and beliefs?
  15. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Are you going to reappear back in this thread and state your decision on what bush should do with Irans nuclear capability and the threat to us and Israel? or are you just posting on lou dobbs, jane fonda, and clinton?
    Let's hear your case? QuiGon.?
  16. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Patsfan 13 Your a former military serviceman and a patriot ..
    A pro bush supporter on the GWOT.
    What do you think Bush should? elaborate a little bit please?
  17. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    ELO would you like to opine on what bush should do with repect to Irans nuclear facilities, allow Israel to bomb the nuclear sites, or help them in this mission????
    I figured since your pro bush and believe IN the GWOT that this might be of interest to you? Care to state what you want to happen? and HOW??
  18. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    HEY
    PFIEL
    patsfan13
    Elo rocks
    QuiGon
    I notice you are all this forum right now, why don't you opine on this very important topic???

    You can post about dobbs,kathleen wileys cat being killed and clinton raping women but not this topic?

    What about Irans Nuclear Facilities??
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2006
  19. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    There is NO bush videos in this thread, so you don't have to fret aboutTHAT!
    Theres NO eyewitness testimony from senior officials, NO worries THERE!
    No discussions on constitutional quarantees being Neglected, No Pain there.
    All I am asking is for all of you, or at least one of you to state what bush should do about Irans Nuclear Sites, nothing more nothing less, be genuine and clear about your decision on how you want bush to handle this Nuclear Issue??
    PFEIL?
    PATSFAN13?
    QUIGON?
    ELOROCKS?
    PATSNUTME?
    DEANPATSFAN?
    PATSBLUE?
  20. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey
    Lots of nutured posters I think Blue collar...come on boys belly up to the bar!!!
  21. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    FTW and QuiGon are Back and have not responded yet!
  22. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey
    Personally...I like the question and I'll tell you why.

    #1....good question.

    #2....I personally love when my threads get differing opinions.

    Why?

    #3...because you learn alot from differing opinions.
    You learn more than the media could ever teach.
    Toss out who is right and who is wrong and the learning takes hold.
  23. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Excellent Point.
    Imo that is the reward of debating all points of view....
    With knowledge and deductive reasoning you become more accurately informed....That is, if you allow the learning process to penetrate your preconcieved belief's...If not, you only own your fiercley held belief backed up with emotions, not fact's.
  24. Blue Collar

    Blue Collar Rookie

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    Hey FBN would you mind if just you and I discuss this strategic decision..
    ALL the other right of center posters do not want to engage in this Iranian nuclear facility potential crisis...?Because it's a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.?.
    Maybe ? they are in a enigma in a conundrum wrapped in a straitjacket. I believe this is YES
    The topics their engaging in are Kathleen wiley dead cat that clinton/gore sent out hit squads on that mission...Or the raping of women by clinton, or the latest hollywood pinata, or the secret sex rooms in the W.H., OR how hilary will start race wars across america just because, or how many bigmacs, chicken mcnuggets, french fries, apple pies and chocalate shakes clintoneats siting, or how wilson initiatedthe decisions then that are ruining america 5000 years later, or how savage is a genius or how ann coulter is the bess thing since white slice bread or how how some democratic soldier during the revolutionary war was not on a swift boat so he must be slandered 24-7 or how back when we were justooze in the primordial seas democratic one celled orginisms were all cut and run or when the carbon that is us was billion of years younger it tooka left instead of a rightwhich is the only way to turn at a 1000 road intersection.
    Your straightforward and logical and informitive with your knowledge...
    We both will discover and learn new insights about the issue..
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2006
  25. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    Good post. I think USrael is kind of handcuffed as long as Iran maintains their posture of threatening from afar and doing nothing. An unprovoked nuclear attack like you mentioned would be complete suicide on many levels and counter-productive. Any progress towards reformation will be replaced by unbelievable lashing out by the muslim world. Iran will gain lots of sympathy and a regional war will ensue. I seems inevitable and hopefully we don't trigger it or participate.
  26. QuiGon

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    I've been predicting that Israel will eventually take care of the problem like they did with the Osirik Reactor in Iraq about 25 years ago (I still have the Time Magazine with that mission on the cover - it is fascinating to read articles from back then with 25 years of hindsight). While an Iran operation would be more difficult than that one, I believe it is still something that could be successfully carried out.

    Needless to say, the United States would approve of this and probably provide direct support as needed (although this could be very delicate since the U.S. may be sensitive about angering the rest of the Muslim world). Israel would have some moral authority to carry out such a mission; Iran has openly stated a desire to wipe out Israel so it would be tough for the international community to come down on them too hard if they attacked Iran pre-emptively.

    Post Script: One of the brave Israeli pilots from the raid on Osirik would end up dying on board the Shuttle Columbia.

    Post Post Script: Last week I made a post to this very board saying that it wouldn't surprise me if Israel used the current situation as their excuse to carry out such a mission.
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2006
  27. Gumby

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    I am serving (army; not air force) but won't claim to be an air power expert. I will say that air power advocates can get a little over-self-enamored at times (Kosovo anyone? 90 days of air bombardment and until we put troops on the ground the Serbs just hunkered down and laughed their azzes off at us bombing telephone poles made to look like artillery pieces)

    Yes; Isreal has air refuelers (read: large aerial firework device) but the question is who is going to give them over-flight rights? Are they going to fly over Saudi Arabia or Jordan or Syria with those large easily shot down aerial firework devices? The US is going to give them permission to fly through Iraqi airspace in a combat zone? The Brits are going to let them land in Diego Garcia? None of those countries (to include us) wants to face the UN political bull**** that would fly with the appearance of cooperation in the mission.

    Not going to say they couldn't do it. ONCE. But the 707s would never come home. (this is why superpowers build aircraft carriers).

    As for submarines; that was open source data in news stories over past 10 years that Isreal has a fleet (FYI: Iran is also buying old Russian subs ). As to the cruise missiles; I dont recall source but I read a story (probably in US News and World Report as that is my main "reading" news source.) about a year ago where Isreal asked US for cruise missile technology and either Congress or Pentagon said no.

    As for 30-40 hits doing anything significant; I don't think so. Have you seen any of the satellite photos of the area the Iranians have built up. It is an entire valley. The reactors are spread around in 5 or 6 different city locations across Iran; so you can't hit all of them. You have to take out the plutonium generation ie. the key stuff is the centrifuge farm in that valley. Well that is buried under one of those mountains in that valley; and our CIA admits they can't say which one. Mossad may be better but do you think they can say with certainty when they will only get one shot with 30-40 hits.

    So even then; they would need to make one of those 30-40 hits be nuclear to ensure they take it out. Do you really think they would trust flying over Jordan and Saudi Arabia with a nuke?

    I repeat I am not an air power expert; but my 25 years of military experience and common sense says - an air strike just isn't in the cards.
  28. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There is a lot of unrest in Iran among the younger people, and many (not all by any means) like the US. We should do whatever we can to help Iranians who want regeime change.

    Going in militarily right now isn't viable politically. The President's leverage has been hurt by the fecklessness of the oposition party.

    I think we would have to put boots on the ground, the Iranians learned the lesson of the bombing of the Iraqi nuke program by Israel. Their facilities are dispearsed and underground.

    The Chicoms have signed a $600B deal with Iran for Oil, Russia is selling them the equipment for their program and are their supplier of military equipment, they won't help with Iran either.

    Bombing Iran is very different than attacking Iraq, the flyover issues are a lot tougher, And IMO the Israeli's don't have the capability to go after enough sites.
  29. Mainefan

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    Thanks Gumby, very thoughtful analysis.

    Of course, it's hard to say what Israel would do if it genuinely believed Iran was nearing A-bomb production. I think there's still a lot of uncertainty here.

    The US might well--probably would--allow Israel to use Iraq's air space. Even if they didn't like it, I don't think the US would shoot down an Israeli plane.

    The Jordanians are the real question here. It's about 200 miles from Israel to the Iraqi border, through Jordan. That would give the Jordanians about 8 minutes (assuming the F-16's top speed of 1500 mph) to intercept them, and plenty of time, if they decided to do it, to warn Iran. I don't know about the state of Iranian radar--would they get an early warning of the Israeli attack? Could that attack somehow be masked as incoming civilian aviation?

    Then there's the nuclear option. Would Israel use nuclear weapons on Iran? I don't know. If Israel genuinely believed its survival was at risk, there would be Israeli voices within the government calling for such a strike. But there would also be voices opposed to it. I lean toward the belief that Israel would only use nuclear weapons in reprisal, and even then, it might not use them.

    It is not hard to imagine something resembling the Cuban Missile Crisis in the Middle East five or ten years from now. The character of Iran's leadership, by itself, makes such a crisis more likely. Ahmadinejad seems a bit irrational. In the Cold War, we at least had two rational governments facing off against each other. The outcome pretty much proves that. Would we have the same result with an irrational government? Who knows.

    I do not think, however, that the prospect of losing a 707 tanker, or even some F-16s would deter Israel, if it decided a strike was necessary.

    What we're talking about, really, is the end game of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Scary stuff.
  30. Mainefan

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    Patsfan13, you say "the President's leverage has been hurt by the fecklessness of the oposition party." I think the real reason for the President's lack of leverage is his own feckless conduct of the Iraq war. If the best case scenario he assumed had actually occurred, his leverage would be immense.

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