Is the Pats pass defense as bad as everybody claims?

[eric5280]

Okay so I know the Patriots Pass defense is not good by any measure but in doing some research on their performances it does not seem as bad as most people say. Hear me out.

The eyeball test as well as the analysts incessantly mentioning they are historically bad seemed to indicate the pass defense is terrible. I wanted to see how better opposing teams passed against the Patriots relative to the rest of the league so I crunched some numbers and the result was surprising okay.

I started out by totaling the QB performances against the Patriots. Here are the numbers:
Season total: 310-485 (63.9%) 3,894yds, 8.03YPA, 18TD, 17INT 86.57 rating
Per game avg: 25.8-40.4, 324.5yds, 1.5TD, 1.42INT

I then compiled the totals for the QBs against the rest of the league and here are the numbers:
Season total: 1,838-3,010 (61.1%), 22,060yds, 7.33YPA, 138TD, 90INT 86.33 rating
*Per game avg: 24.2-39.7, 291.4yds, 1.84TD, 1.17INT

*For the sake of simplicity, to calculate a per game average, I omitted partial games and their corresponding stats.

Take a look at the QB rating.. Basically the QBs that played against the Patriots have put up the same numbers as they put up against the rest of the league in terms of efficiency! Against the Patriots, the volume yardage is obviously way up but is achieved at the expense of a much lower TD-INT ratio. The 0.7YPA increase is rather alarming but the extra 33yards per game extra seems worth it since the trade off is less TD passes and more INTs. When you factor the large amount of garbage time stats accrued, it explains a lot where a fair amount of those yards are coming from.

 

[eric5280]

It is a bit crazy that opposing teams are on pace to rack up 5,192yards of passing against the Patriots but it's not as bad when you take in the context that these same QBs are on average on pace to put up 4,663 yards for a full season against the rest of the opponents they face.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

It's definitely bad. Does it have potential to improve, maybe enough to sneak their way to the Superbowl? Yes. The offense must play their best football if we want to get to a Superbowl.

 

[pork3]

The offense must play their best football if we want to get to a Superbowl.

Kind of sad if that's indeed the case.
If our offense was backed up by a Ravens like defense, my lord, this team would be something else...

-Jamman

 

[resdubwhite]

Kind of sad if that's indeed the case.
If our offense was backed up by a Ravens like defense, my lord, this team would be something else...

-Jamman

It would also be about 35 million dollars over the cap.

 

[Nunchucks]

Not only is the pass defense bad, but the run defense ain't nothing to write home about either. We would be in serious trouble if a team got the lead on the Patriots and decided to run the ball.

So, yes! The Patriots defense is horrible, worst I've ever see.

 

[randomk1]

It's definitely bad. Does it have potential to improve, maybe enough to sneak their way to the Superbowl?

It can't get any ****tier can it? This D hasn't been healthy like ever. There is no regular unit of players. That alone i think causes alot of problems. I just hope we get some guys back and into shape by the playoffs. I definately think we can improve.

 

[Big-T]

Not only is the pass defense bad, but the run defense ain't nothing to write home about either. We would be in serious trouble if a team got the lead on the Patriots and decided to run the ball.

10th against the run, so they can stop the run.
13th in points allowed, which is the most important defensive stat IMO, I don't care how many yards the team gives up - it's the number of points that matters.

So, yes! The Patriots defense is horrible, worst I've ever see.

Have you not watched the Packers this season then? They have a worse defense than the Patriots.

 

[eric5280]

I honestly expected to see a much higher passer rating against the Pats relative to what they do to the rest of the league but it simply is not the case. I think these numbers indicate they are more of a middle of the road pass defense than they are a historically bad one. It's at the crux of the bend but don't break mantra. They give up extra yards and in return they give up less passing touchdowns and get more interceptions.

 

[JackBauer]

Not only is the pass defense bad, but the run defense ain't nothing to write home about either. We would be in serious trouble if a team got the lead on the Patriots and decided to run the ball.

So, yes! The Patriots defense is horrible, worst I've ever see.

Run defense is above average. As long as we have Spikes, it's not something I'm particularly concerned about.

 

[eric5280]

Not only is the pass defense bad, but the run defense ain't nothing to write home about either. We would be in serious trouble if a team got the lead on the Patriots and decided to run the ball.

So, yes! The Patriots defense is horrible, worst I've ever see.

But the question is, if this defense is so much worse than everybody else, why is the passer rating differential only 0.24? That would seem to indicate the pass defense is merely just average. When you factor in all the garbage time yardage accrued, it somewhat mitigates the 34yards per game passing yards differential.

 

[Rob0729]

The pass defense is not nearly as bad people think it is. Orlofsky got something like 200 yards in garbage time on Sunday. Vince Young got over 100 garbage time yards. I know Jason Campbell got 99 garbage time yards. I think Chad Henne got over 200 garbage time yards too.

It is a little disconcerning that the Pats cannot keep the defense up when the game is out of hand, but the Pats have been in a lot of fourth quarters this season with the victory locked up and opposing QBs racking up triple digit yards during that time.

 

[randomk1]

But the question is, if this defense is so much worse than everybody else, why is the passer rating differential only 0.24? That would seem to indicate the pass defense is merely just average. When you factor in all the garbage time yardage accrued, it somewhat mitigates the 34yards per game passing yards differential.

Well..my guess is that

a) We haven't faced that many good QBs - Romo,Rapistberger,Eli. 4 if you wanna count Rivers but he has sucked this year.

b) We play with a lead most of the time - teams forced to abandon the run...makes their O more predictable...leads to more yards but also more mistakes.

c) Decent red-zone D

 

[Nunchucks]

10th against the run, so they can stop the run.
13th in points allowed, which is the most important defensive stat IMO, I don't care how many yards the team gives up - it's the number of points that matters.



Have you not watched the Packers this season then? They have a worse defense than the Patriots.

10th against the run, teams don't run on the Patriots because they can throw instead. If you watch teams run the ball though, it appears that they are easily getting 4 yards a clip.

 

[Deus Irae]

But the question is, if this defense is so much worse than everybody else, why is the passer rating differential only 0.24? That would seem to indicate the pass defense is merely just average. When you factor in all the garbage time yardage accrued, it somewhat mitigates the 34yards per game passing yards differential.

You might want to double check your numbers.

 

[Nunchucks]

I honestly expected to see a much higher passer rating against the Pats relative to what they do to the rest of the league but it simply is not the case. I think these numbers indicate they are more of a middle of the road pass defense than they are a historically bad one. It's at the crux of the bend but don't break mantra. They give up extra yards and in return they give up less passing touchdowns and get more interceptions.

Maybe the passer rating can be attributed to red zone defense?

Although, it is not like the Patriots are seeing the top NFL QBs.

KC, Jets twice, Miami, Colts, Eagles...all with questionable passers.

 

[Nunchucks]

So, teams don't run on the Patriots, the patriots have the 8th fewest attempts with 292 for a 4.2 average. Compare that to the 2nd most passing attempts against at 485, 63.9% completion, and a solid 8 YPP

Patriots saving grace is the 17 interceptions

 

[Betterthanmost]

Yes, it has been as bad as we have heard and seen.

 

[eric5280]

Well..my guess is that

a) We haven't faced that many good QBs - Romo,Rapistberger,Eli. 4 if you wanna count Rivers but he has sucked this year.

b) We play with a lead most of the time - teams forced to abandon the run...makes their O more predictable...leads to more yards but also more mistakes.

c) Decent red-zone D

A) When I did my calculations, it was based on the same QBs the Patriots faced, not all QBs in general.. So we're comparing apples to apples as far as which QBs are concerned. The only exception is Orlovsky for whom has no full games against any other team this year. But the quality of QB is irrelevant because the comparison between the Pats defense and the other defenses is predicated on the stats of the same QBs the Pats played.

B) This only indicates that the historically bad numbers are inflated and supports the theory that the defense is not actually historically bad but rather put in a position (ahead with the lead) where other teams are going to be more pass-centric and put up higher volume passing stats (which they do)

C) Again supports the bend but don't break ideology that the patriots give up more yards in order to give up less touchdowns and get more interceptions.

 

[DarrylS]

It is what it is, could be better.. but they are about 12th in pts allowed, and right behind NY Giants, NOLA, Tampa Bay, Green Bay in yards allowed..

Need to have some perspective, last weeks game was not a great indicator, as the D was more like a preseason D than anything else.

Even McDonald starting at Center, wake up call for Wendell??