OK here's my take. Lets take it step by step
1. Basic Strategy - The team is reloading on the fly. They hit a jackpot in the 2008 draft getting TEN rookies to make the team (9 draft picks and 1 UDFA) and that doesn't include McKenzie (IR) and Richards (PS). We all know that 4 picks in the first 2 rounds of what will be very deep draft, and IIRC another 4 picks plus what they get in comps and potential trades. That means AT LEAST another 6 rookies who will make the team
2010 (if uncapped):
ERFA: Guyton, Lockett
RFA: Connolly, Gostkowski, Mankins, Ninkovich, Taylor, Woods
UFA: Bodden, Burgess, Faulk, Green, Hanson, Neal, Seau, Watson, Wilfork
2010 (if capped):
ERFA: Guyton, Lockett
RFA: Connolly, Ninkovich, Taylor
UFA: Bodden, Burgess, Faulk, Gostkowski, Green, Hanson, Mankins, Neal, Seau, Watson, Wilfork, Woods
Now lets look at our own FA's and see who we want to keep.
Of the UDFA's My first priorities would be Bodden and Wilfolk. Bodden because he is still a young vet who can anchor a CB slot. This secondary is looking grow into a dominant bunch, but STILL needs a vet to solidify their youth. As long its a market deal, I'd do it. He was very realistic in his approach THIS year, I think he'll do the same next year. He knows that he can thrive in THIS system, while he also knows how it can go, when money is the only issue.
Wilfolk is a cornerstone guy. He has show his versatility in playing all up and down the DL this year. He's not just another fat guy over the C. BB LOVES him his DLmen, and he's gonna have to pay THIS one.
The next key guy is Mankins, and last game not withstanding he's a key guy as well. He'll get signed and paid and it won't break the bank IMO. He's at home here.
Watson is becoming a more interesting proposition every game. He's making himself more marketable, but we can't pay EVERYONE. IF he want to stay, he'll have to stay at money equal or just slightly better than what Baker got. That might not do it.
Neal is the guy I see going. He's the oldest of the OLmen...and the most injury prone....and the guy on the decline IMHO. Here's what I see possibly happening. IF Volmer keeps improving, by next year there could be a case where you COULD make a case for Volmer moving to LT. Now you slide Light into Neal's spot and it could mean an upgrade to 2 positions. Don't forget that when he came out, many scouts thought that though Light projected to a decent LT (ie not dominant) he could have been a dominant G.
A more conventional approach would be to keep Light at LT in his the final year of his contract, and slide Volmer to the RT for one more year of apprenticeship, and move Kazcur to the RG spot.
Green and Faulk will sign deals to finish their careers as Patriots...or they'll be gone. I'm sure they'll get decent offers.
They'll pay Gotts to keep him....Hanson....not so much. Burgess...not so much Springs...not so much.
The continued development of Edelman and Tate are key. We haven't drafted a WR who has made ANY impact since 2002 (Branch) Moss might have another elite year in him, but at his age you almost have to assume he will miss some time. I'm amazed that he hasn't been injured along the way thus far. Welker's age isn't a factor, though his size is. So for that reason, I think the Pats look to FA for another WR for next year, and could use one of those 4 picks to grap a quality WR.
Moroney will be back as will Taylor and Faulk. I can't see us drafting a RB in the first too rounds. To many good RBs are found later, and there is still BJGE. Morris might be the odd man out here. We clearly have to get younger....so at least one of the old RBs have to go.
LB is a very interesting situation. Mayo, Guyton, TBC, Woods and Thomas will form the basis for next year's LB corp. Don't forget that we have Crable and McKenzie coming off IR
Add Nickovich and whatever draft picks we take, and we have the basis for a pretty good groiup of athletes. Lets hope for Crabel's sake that the 3rd time is the charm. All that being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see BB go after some LB vet in FA, just not any of the top big money names.
As to the draft. I doubt that we will be drafting for any particular IMMEDIATE need, though I bet at least 4 of those picks will play in the various rotations. I don't see the need for any QBs yet. Hoyer will NEVER be a starter for the Pats. Brady will still be starting when HIS rookie contract runs out. I don't think we really have to look to Brady's true replacement until 2012....at LEAST. Brady's passion for the game is a lot like Farve's. If he thinks he can still play, he's gonna want to play...and he'll play well. Like I said before. Brady's eventual replacement is still in HS
When you would like to think that the guys you draft in the first 2 rounds will be either starters or key elements to your regular O/D by their 2nd year. The only position I see the Pats needing to get immediate help over the next 2 years is at TE, WR, and LB...and that is where I see us going, though if the Pats see a DLman that they like, BB will never pass him up.
