I'd still consider Llyod for a depth spot or at the very least--insurance as a WR3 or WR4. I wouldn't mind him at all taking over Branch's role that we've seen in the past since he has the familiarity with the scheme and did have some rapport with Brady. As I said earlier, my main concern and potential 'dealbreaker' to this getting done would be how much they expect Llyod to contribute + obvious value/compensation.
I don't think it'd be fair to say that he didn't produce, because he caught 74 balls; but I also don't think it's fair to act like it was quite as good as he appeared by that statline either. 130 targets is a lot of looks, and there were some very obvious weaknesses in his game.
In the end it appears that they were fine with him staying on to assume a lesser role with lesser production, but that he wanted to gamble on himself--which we can all respect.
These are my thoughts regarding my personal feelings about Brandon Llyod coming back. I think they are fair and reasonable. You may feel differently.
Unless there are drops you can't blame completion percentage on the target. He doesn't chose to be thrown to.
There are a number of variables that would affect that, including the length of the throw (if player A is running routes 10-30 yards downfield and player B 1-10 there will be a dramatic difference in comp % that has nothing to do with the receiver).
Another is the QB decision of whether the receiver is open. Qbs throw to open receivers when they reach them in progression. If the definition of open is different from one player to another, the results will be different.
This is also a factor of the routes run as well.
It seems wrong to me to say Lloyd should have done more with his targets unless he dropped the pass. What you are saying is if Brady thought he was open and threw a bad pass, or a defensed pass that detracts from the catches Lloyd made, and that just doesnt jive with me.
Targets are not determined in advance. You have to show your QB you are open to be the target. Again, drops aside, you can't really blame the receiver for the amount of incomplete passes thrown in his direction.
You lost me a little bit, but I think your overall points are that:
1. We cannot always take stats and find as much reasonable analysis as it may initially appear
2. You don't see as much of a relationship to Llyod's role and numbers in comparison to Deion Branch's role in 2011 as I seem to, despite the fact that Lloyd averaged less per catch, and had less touchdowns while receiving 130 overall targets.
3. We can't claim that it's Llyod's "fault" for "only" catching 74 balls on 130 targets because there are plenty of other factors to take into acct, which I would agree with and find totally reasonable.
My main point to all of it is that I believe that the team would have been fine with Llyod potentially being a WR3 or WR4 here this season, and that is where my 2011 Deion Branch comparison comes into play. Let's remember that Deion Branch caught 51 balls that year (compared to BL's 74 last yr), BUT he also had a higher YPC and also more TD's--not that I find the TD statline extremely relevant but it should be noted.
No one was extremely worried about losing Branch after the 2011 season, but that situation has changed this year due to our fear of not having sufficient enough experience and talent. I would agree with that notion, but at this point it appears as though Llyod is nothing more than a possession type receiver playing the WR3 or WR4 role that Branch played in 2011. While I agree that is an important role to have, it also should be noted that Branch would have easily surpassed Llyod's production last year had he been targeted 130 overall times, so the Patriots apparently aren't quite as worried as we seem to be about this.
Your concern with the 130 target number is appreciated, but it's entirely possible that the team feels that there are better talented (or if not talent, then
value--which is probably the better choice in this situation with BL) players who can probably produce just as much with 130 targets.
My bottom line stance is that I'd like to see him come back to play that WR3 or WR4 role, but that is simply due to the uncertainty of the current WR situation. I would love to see him come back for a fair price, and that is apparently exactly the idea that the team had when they offered him a reduced rate. He does have obvious weaknesses in his game that can be improved upon for a WR2, but it's always good to have that kind of experienced player as insurance--not to mention the things that he did right. I am rather surprised that another team hasn't scooped him up as at least a WR3, so maybe that paints a deeper storyline than what we've originally thought about his "attitude" or managability issues, I really don't know.
