When the Patriots played the Eagles this year, they got burned early on. Vince Young had two deep passes (I think one was to Jackson and one to Cooper), and it appeared the Eagles would destroy us. But the rest of the game, they barely mustered anything. It looked like guys were open, but Young kept looking for that big play. I think Belichick has studied Eli Manning enough to know that he loves the "big play." The long pass, such as the hail mary before halftime to Hakeem Nicks versus the Packers is what makes Eli go. He isn't afraid to throw into coverage, relying on his receivers to make huge plays. In addition, it's obvious that the Giants receivers don't just want to win the game; they want to put on a memorable show. 10-15 yard passes are not a memorable show, even if that's what would win the game for the Giants. With all the media attention about Eli, I almost feel like he is going to try and be a hero on Sunday, trying to throw a Brett Favre-type of long pass where he throws his arms up and runs across the field. Although Manning won't admit it, he is a gambler, not in the mold of Peyton. Eli is a gunslinger, and while he has improved in his decision making, he is prone to make bad throws quite often for an "elite" quarterback. And that is precisely why I think the Patriots might be able to contain the Giants to the the tune of below 21 points. Whereas a quarterback like Brees or Rodgers wouldn't fall for the bait of the deep pass and would instead rely on short to medium range passes, if that's what the defense gives them, I don't believe that will happen with Eli. I think it would be a good thing if the Pats get burned on a 40 yard pass (not a touchdown) early on, as it would make Eli and those receivers even more overconfident than they already are. If the Giants come out and play a low-risk passing game with lots of 8-10 yard passes, I don't think we'll stop them; but if they constantly challenge our "horrible secondary", I think there's a good chance we completely knock them off their game and they lose their confidence. Thoughts?