The Pats running game is rounding into shape, but has yet to thrive against a defense worth its salt. Buffalo, Jets and Cinci are all sisters of the poor when it comes to run D. Miami, on the other hand, is extremely stout, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry, top 5 in the league. Miami's weakness on D is the secondary, mostly communication weaknesses, and the lack of a playmaker. The Pats will throw early to score in this game, taking the Phins by surprise. The Dolphins will anticipate a run-oriented gameplan from the Pats after watching the ground display against Cinci, and plan for it all week. The Pats will fool them, possibly with the no-huddle early in the game, and I believe C. Jackson will be active and prominently used for the first time.
As for the Phins, they are a fragile team in an emotional crisis. An early deficit would destroy them and may cause a mild sideline mutiny. Saban knows this. Saban has aready diagnosed his team's problems. He knows Mularkey's a mess and a major cause of the team's offensive struggles, and already regrets the hire. Saban knows he has to get an early lead in this game, to rescue the fragile psyche of his players, and he will throw deep to get it from the get go, probably via a trick play such as a flea flicker. To supplement that or set it up, Saban is going to get R. Brown much more involved than in past 4 games, hoping to get him at least 30 touches via run/pass. The season is on the line for him and he will use up this shiny toy Mularkey had been inexplicably neglecting. The Miami offense from now on will be focused on Brown and not the feeble Culpepper.
The lack of Hobbs may hurt the Pats vs Chambers, who possesses more raw speed than C. Johnson and Houshmanzadeh, though less skilfull hands. Once again the key is getting to Culpepper, specifically pressure up the middle, which is why the 4 man front makes more sense to start this game so as to rattle him early, though some 3-4 may be in line later to befuddle even more the clueless Miami QB. If the Phins struggle early, falling behind and showing impotence on offense, Saban will throw Harrington in after halftime without hesitation. Saban is merciless and the only ego that matters is his own. "His" season is on the line. If Culpepper struggles, this will be the big fella's last game for some time. Either he will be outright benched at halftime, or an injury will be invented to save him some embarassment; then, weeks from now, when his knee is healthier, more mobile, he will be given back the starting job.
Once the Pats establish an early lead via the pass, they will begin mixing in the run, and as Miami's frustration grows the Pats will move almost exclusively to the run. By then tackles will be missed, cutback lanes will be overrun, and Miami may even roll over in despair. Call it domination. 27-13 Pats.
