Introduction to NFL Tiebreakers - Jets and Pats

[cstjohn17]

I have never really looked into this before because it confuses the hell out of me but I started to look to see what would happen if the Pats and Jets tie. It is very scary, last week was a huge loss for the Pats.

Scenario
Jets lose to Bears and then win out, finish 11-5
Pats lose to Bears and Jaguars, finish 11-5

We get into tie breakers, the attached spreadsheet breaks in down. Please let me know if I missed anything, but by my calculations it will go down to the 5th tie breaker (strength of schedule).

Hopefully the Jets fall flat and this scenario never happens.

 

[Michael]

The only way the Jets go 11-5 is if they get a bye week before each game.

 

[cstjohn17]

The only way the Jets go 11-5 is if they get a bye week before each game.

Lets hope you are right, their schedule down the stretch doesn't look difficult. After Chicago the Jets plays some of the worst teams in the league with a combined schedule of 19-35.

Jets

Sun 9/10 *at Tennessee *W 23-16
*Sun 9/17 *New England *L 17-24
*Sun 9/24 *at Buffalo *W 28-20
*Sun 10/1 *Indianapolis *L 28-31
*Sun 10/8 *at Jacksonville *L 0-41
*Sun 10/15 *Miami *W 20-17
*Sun 10/22 *Detroit *W 31-24
*Sun 10/29 *at Cleveland *L 13-20
*bye
*Sun 11/12 *at New England *W 17-14
*Sun 11/19 *Chicago Loss
*Sun 11/26 *Houston Win
*Sun 12/3 *at Green Bay Win
*Sun 12/10 *Buffalo Win
*Sun 12/17 *at Minnesota Win
*Mon 12/25 *at Miami Win
*Sun 12/31 *Oakland Win

 

[PATSNUTme]

Lets hope you are right, their schedule down the stretch doesn't look difficult. After Chicago the Jets plays some of the worst teams in the league with a combined schedule of 19-35.

Jets

Sun 9/10 *at Tennessee *W 23-16
*Sun 9/17 *New England *L 17-24
*Sun 9/24 *at Buffalo *W 28-20
*Sun 10/1 *Indianapolis *L 28-31
*Sun 10/8 *at Jacksonville *L 0-41
*Sun 10/15 *Miami *W 20-17
*Sun 10/22 *Detroit *W 31-24
*Sun 10/29 *at Cleveland *L 13-20
*bye
*Sun 11/12 *at New England *W 17-14
*Sun 11/19 *Chicago Loss
*Sun 11/26 *Houston Win
*Sun 12/3 *at Green Bay Win
*Sun 12/10 *Buffalo Win
*Sun 12/17 *at Minnesota Win
*Mon 12/25 *at Miami Win
*Sun 12/31 *Oakland Win

They will lose 3 -4 of the remaining game Bears, Packers,Minn, and either Buf or Mia.

Take that to the bank now and start drawing interest.

 

[pats1]

Why is there this consensus the Pats are going 11-5 or around there?

I predict 13-3, or 12-4 at the worst.

Seems like a lot of the fans are still drunk on the Jets loss. It's such a roller-coaster ride on this board. My opinion of the Jets as a completely second-class team to the Patriots hasn't changed. 60 minutes of regular season football DOES NOT do that.

Call me a homer or whatever, but I made mistakes in the past I've vowed never to make again. The first came in week 3 of the 2003 season. The Pats were coming off the year that was 2002, then the Buffalo 31-0 loss, then Colvin's injury. I still remember (verbally) saying that the Pats' season was over. They went on to win Super Bowl XXXVIII. The second came in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. I didn't stay up to watch the end once the Sox went behind. Ortiz won it in after midnight, and the Sox went on to win the World Series.

 

[BelichickFan]

Lets hope you are right, their schedule down the stretch doesn't look difficult. After Chicago the Jets plays some of the worst teams in the league

The jesters aren't nearly good enough to win most of those games. They might be a touch over .500 the rest of the way but that's it.

Remember we lost, the jesters were the better team, because we played horribly not because they played great.

 

[brady2brown]

I agree that the odds are good that the Jets can win any of those games. But not all of them. Yeah, some of them are crappy teams. But crappy teams do win games sometimes. Look at the Jets.

Lets hope you are right, their schedule down the stretch doesn't look difficult. After Chicago the Jets plays some of the worst teams in the league with a combined schedule of 19-35.

Jets

Sun 9/10 *at Tennessee *W 23-16
*Sun 9/17 *New England *L 17-24
*Sun 9/24 *at Buffalo *W 28-20
*Sun 10/1 *Indianapolis *L 28-31
*Sun 10/8 *at Jacksonville *L 0-41
*Sun 10/15 *Miami *W 20-17
*Sun 10/22 *Detroit *W 31-24
*Sun 10/29 *at Cleveland *L 13-20
*bye
*Sun 11/12 *at New England *W 17-14
*Sun 11/19 *Chicago Loss
*Sun 11/26 *Houston Win
*Sun 12/3 *at Green Bay Win
*Sun 12/10 *Buffalo Win
*Sun 12/17 *at Minnesota Win
*Mon 12/25 *at Miami Win
*Sun 12/31 *Oakland Win

 

[alamo]

We get into tie breakers, the attached spreadsheet breaks in down. Please let me know if I missed anything, but by my calculations it will go down to the 5th tie breaker (strength of schedule).

Strength of schedule is the *6th* tiebreaker. The 5th is "Strength of Victory", i.e. the combined winning percentages of all teams we beat, completely ignoring everyone we lost to. In the scenario you describe above the Patriots almost definitely win the division on the 5th tiebreaker.

That's because 10 of each team's victories will have been against the same opponents or against each other and thus cancel out in the SOV calculation. Thus SOV would come down to who has the better record, the other Jets' victim Oakland (now 2-7) or the other Patriots' victim Cincinnati (now 4-5)? The chances are extremely good Cincinnati would finish with the better record, giving the Pats the tiebreaker. (CIN has a tough schedule but should get at least 2 more wins, but OAK plays KC (twice) SD and the Jets so they would have to win the other 3 just to get to 5 wins).

But of course there are lots of things which change the scenario, anyway.