Interesting tidbit to consider.

[PatsWickedPissah]

Regarding the turnover stat as an indicator, Pat Kirwin on SIRIUS NFL radio (the only thing worth listing to on SIRIUS unless you're Elvis obsessed like my wife) said that he looks at weekly matchups and flags those where the difference between opposing teams is 10 or more.

 

[patchick]

For example, take the turnover stat. This stat is often more reflective of luck or poor opposition than it is a measure of how well the team is playing.

Individual turnovers are often a matter of luck, just as individual receptions, sacks etc. can be a matter of luck. But season-long and multi-season patterns reflect more than luck. Here's New England's ranking among all NFL teams in TO +/- over the past 5 seasons:

2014: #1
2013: #8
2012: #1
2011: #3
2010: #1

Every year they have been at least +9, and over the 4 1/2-season span a remarkable +91. I think it's fair to say that winning the turnover battle is a core part of Patriots football.

 

[Doctor DDS]

Anyone who plays fantasy loves it when their QB's team is behind big time at the half. Most often they pass for a ton of meaningless 2nd half yards with a couple TD's. Fortunately or unfortunately yards and even points are not very reliable indicators. A punt return for a TD is ultimately a negative to yards given up as are pick 6's as they give the other team the ball back quickly.

 

[breakin]

Stats can be very misleading if taken in a vacuum. Im not sure if this has been mentioned ITT but before the Bears game the Pats D ranked 2nd in Passing yards per game. Following the Bears and Broncos games the Pats D now ranks 15 in passing yards per game.

I think everyone will agree that the passing D was brilliant in both those games. Better than we have seen in years but in terms of yards they dropped 13 spots.

 

[Oswlek]

Stats can be very misleading if taken in a vacuum. Im not sure if this has been mentioned ITT but before the Bears game the Pats D ranked 2nd in Passing yards per game. Following the Bears and Broncos games the Pats D now ranks 15 in passing yards per game.

I think everyone will agree that the passing D was brilliant in both those games. Better than we have seen in years but in terms of yards they dropped 13 spots.

This is a great point, and perfectly illustrating of why total yards are a poor indicator of quality.

 

[Richard Camembert]

Individual turnovers are often a matter of luck, just as individual receptions, sacks etc. can be a matter of luck. But season-long and multi-season patterns reflect more than luck. Here's New England's ranking among all NFL teams in TO +/- over the past 5 seasons:

2014: #1
2013: #8
2012: #1
2011: #3
2010: #1

Every year they have been at least +9, and over the 4 1/2-season span a remarkable +91. I think it's fair to say that winning the turnover battle is a core part of Patriots football.

Persuasive. And note that they do well both in giveaways (listed first below) and in takeaways, with last year being an anomaly:

2014: #T2/#T1
2013: #T10/#T8
2012: #2/#2
2011: #T3/#3
2010: #2/#1

And I certainly agree as well that the longer the time frame assessed, the more powerful the conclusions. Obviously the D ballhawks and the O (behind Brady) takes care of the ball.

 

[mayoclinic]

Browner has 7 penalties (6 accepted) in only three games. I love the aggression too, but don't you think that's an area to improve in?

http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/b-browner-new-england-patriots?year=2014

As Oswlek says, cutting down on simple or stupid penalties is always a good thing. Some of what Browner has been flagged for is a result of his aggressiveness, which I wouldn't want to give up; some of it has been marginal. All things considered, I'm happy with the result so far, and if the penalties are the necessary cost of being aggressive and physical, that's ok by me.

 

[CaffeineMan]

RE: turnovers

I'm a fan of tracking interceptions and fumbles caused from a defensive perspective, but not fumbles recovered. The first two are more often a result of good plays by the defense. The third has a lot more luck in it, I think, and therefore tends not to be something that can be replicated over the long term and not something that really indicates the true quality of a defense.

I agree that yards without context is pretty meaningless.

One interesting stat that I saw that can put context to Manning's yards against the Pats was the Game Script stat over at profootballperspective.com. It's basically a weighted average of a team's lead during a game. For the Broncos game, it was 11.5. That's a big enough lead that it backs up what the eyes said about the Broncos game: Manning was throwing a lot while behind.

The Game Script stat for the Bears game was even bigger: 21.5! That's a huge average lead, 5th highest in any game this year. Those yards against the Pats defense were even more useless in that game.

 

[mayoclinic]

The Pats are playing excellent complementary and situational football. That doesn't generally show up on the stat sheet.

From Reiss' Quick Hits today:

The Patriots, who pride themselves on situational football, have scored points in the final two minutes of the first half in eight of their nine games (Sept. 29 at Kansas City the exception). In all, they have scored 12 times after the two-minute warning, totaling 56 points.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...832/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-patriots-35

That's the kind of stuff that's got to make BB very, very happy.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I've always though you could divide a season into 4 parts and you try to go 3-1 in each. A 12-4 season will almost always get you a bye. Sometimes it won't work out as this year (2-2 in first quarter) and other times it is better than expected as Q2 of this year (4-0) with a good start on Q3 (1-0 so far.) You also have to look at stats that way as many have posted where the team at week #1 is not the same as week #9 or week #17. Like everybody, I would sooner have the team peak later in the year (reference 2001,2003) than the year that shall not mentioned. Here are the stats for that season divided into two halves,,,,Obviously the weather and quality of the team played into it, affecting the stats but you could argue that team peaked too early and I would rather the kinks get ironed out in Sept and Oct than Jan or Feb...

************* PPG YPG PF PA QB *** TD Int YDS QB rating
Games # 1-8 41.4 440 331 127 198/267 30 2 2431 136.15
Games #9-16 32.2 383 258 147 200/305 20 6 2375 102.83

 

[Canuck]

One stat I like looking at is net points (PF-PA). At plus 83 the Pats are 2nd to Denver's +84. Last year Denver was #1 and Seattle was #2. Patriots were #4