Interesting tidbit to consider.

[SacPete1]

This stats post is a great topic and something I have been frustrated with for so many years. Analytics is a hot topic in so may areas of life these days and yet we have been subjected to the same traditional measurements by the NFL for as long as I have been watching (40+ years) which inevitably results in the phrase "stats are for losers" when theses traditional stats defy a team's success.

I don't think statistics are poor measures of outcome but the traditional stats that are used are outdated. For example, we know that the basic turnover margin is most positively correlated to wins and losses but its not uncommon to see a team with a positive ratio but only an average record. How about measuring points off turnovers or starting field position off turnovers and corresponding points?

Another classic is time of posession. How about points per drive and TOP? 3rd down conversion rate? Break this down further by looking at average yards to go on 3rd down and relative conversion rate.

Look at Manning's stats last weekend. They look pretty good but the interceptions were huge and the traditional passer rating doesn't drop the score as much as the play's impact on the game. And not to defend Manning but the Welker interception was Welker's fault. Welker gets credited with a drop but clearly this was so much more significant than a drop.

There are some groups that actually do perform more detailed analysis but the mainstream media still doesn't and it drives me nuts when watching a pregame show and these ex-players turned 'analysts' do nothing than quote a few stats and provide their conclusions. Great, thanks for the insight.

I guess at the end of the day, watching a game gives you a better perspective on performance than looking at the stats but over the course of the season, more applicable measures would probably provide a greater explanation of wins and losses.

 

[BTTA]

Once again, all this proves that comments about stats being irrelevant are irrelevant without comments about stats.

 

[patchick]

Scoring D is 17th? It's 12th, 2.7 PTS/G from being top 5 and 6 of the teams ahead of them have played 8 games which kind of skews the PTS/G

Yep -- Ken, I think you were looking at total points rather thank points per game. By chance that didn't matter in the offensive rankings, but scoring defense actually ranks 12th.

On special teams, fwiw FootballOutsiders ranks the Patriots #3 overall in the league.

 

[tasmlab]

It's almost a thing of beauty when the pats let an opponent have an 8 minute, 90 yard drive late in the game when the pats are up 20 points. Stats don't tell you what the clock is doing.. When your goal is to eat time, it doesn't always matter whose offense is on the field.

 

[Richard Camembert]

Obviously, stats tell what happened; it takes analysis to tell why.

For example, take the turnover stat. This stat is often more reflective of luck or poor opposition than it is a measure of how well the team is playing. For example, McCourty made seven picks his rookie year, but to the eyeball test, a lot of those were luck as he took advantage of some poor, off target physical mistakes by the opposition. Does that reflect dominance by him? To an extent, as he was close enough to make the play and he held onto the ball; yet he was not seen as a Revis-caliber defender based on all those picks. He got kind of lucky but did make the plays. I'm guessing opponents thought they could throw on him that year rather than avoiding him.

On the other hand, take Nink's early interception off Manning from last Sunday. Again, lots of picks are mistakes in physical execution by the QB, and an analyst might say that Manning screwed up physically there. Closer inspection of the play, discussed elsewhere on this board, shows that Nink gave Manning one look, and then drifted into the passing lane to make the interception. Had he not done that, the pass would have been a completion. Therefore that pick reflects a great play by Nink as opposed to a poor play by Manning, and reflects that next game, opponents have to prepare for deception by Nink.

We all know the story of this year thus far, don't we? The OLine had to sort their personnel, gel, get over their concussion problems, and ramp up their physical prep before the offense could start functioning; when they did the numbers improved. Gronk, Solder, Mayo, and Vince have had to come back from injuries; most of them have and the numbers have gotten better. The D as a whole had to gel and await Browner's return, and the coaching staff had to figure out how to use the new players; when they did the numbers got better. Weighting ST personnel has given big dividends reflected in field position numbers. The stats are reflective of these stories.

The team can always do better. Looking forward, the stats suggest to me that the running game is still an issue, and the D is vulnerable to strong passing offenses, especially Browner, who has too many penalties.

 

[JMC00]

D is vulnerable to strong passing offenses, especially Browner, who has too many penalties.

Vulnerable to what? Given up some passing yards when they are up 20+ points? Cutler and Manning were 9 of 24 targeting Revis and Browner directly. According to most those two passing offenses are two of the stronger ones in the league, especially Denver which for 9 weeks had been considered the best.

 

[mayoclinic]

Vulnerable to what? Given up some passing yards when they are up 20+ points? Cutler and Manning were 9 of 24 targeting Revis and Browner directly. According to most those two passing offenses are two of the stronger ones in the league, especially Denver which for 9 weeks had been considered the best.

I'll gladly take Browner's penalties, given what he adds to the defense.

 

[DaBruinz]

That is why we carry them.

Unrecognized yet in the acquisition of Casillas, who is that mythical Larry Izzo-like LB who excels on ST, BUT unlike Larry ALSO can contribute on Defense. BB has 5 of them now in WR Edelmen and PR JE; RB Bolton; LB Casillas; evolving SS/LB rugby player Ebner; and finally S/LB Wilson.

Many of the current ST players, are no longer just STO [nly] players.

You do realize that mentioning Edelman, Wilson and Casillas doesn't actually go with what Coach42 was saying. He was talking about Special Teams ONLY players.

That would be the likes of Don Jones, Chris White and Matthew Slater. They are guys who fit what Coach42 was saying. The 4 guys you mention have shown the ability to get meaningful snaps as well as provide on special teams, though Nate Ebner spends more time on special teams than he does defense.

 

[DaBruinz]

Scoring D is 17th? It's 12th, 2.7 PTS/G from being top 5 and 6 of the teams ahead of them have played 8 games which kind of skews the PTS/G

It depends on how you look at it. If you go by Points per game, then, yes, the Pats are 12th. If you look at it from a total points overall allowed, then they are 16th.. The latter way really isn't a good indicator since the Pats have played 9 games while 18 other teams in the league have only played 8.

 

[RayClay]

“It’s not about a bunch of stats and stats this and stats that,” the head coach said after the Patriots’ 43-21 win over the Broncos. “We’re not playing fantasy football here. We’re trying to win.”

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/...stats-were-not-playing-fantasy-football-here/

 

[Oswlek]

For example, McCourty made seven picks his rookie year, but to the eyeball test

Not this eyeball test. Devin was outstanding in 2011 and only had a couple, tops, that could be considered luck or just being in the right place.

You might be thinking about Arrington's 2012. He led the league in picks but really wasn't all that good that your.

Vulnerable to what? Given up some passing yards when they are up 20+ points? Cutler and Manning were 9 of 24 targeting Revis and Browner directly. According to most those two passing offenses are two of the stronger ones in the league, especially Denver which for 9 weeks had been considered the best.

Yeah, I'm not following Richard's line of reasoning either.

 

[Richard Camembert]

Vulnerable to what? Given up some passing yards when they are up 20+ points? Cutler and Manning were 9 of 24 targeting Revis and Browner directly. According to most those two passing offenses are two of the stronger ones in the league, especially Denver which for 9 weeks had been considered the best.

Respect; the Pats gave up 438 passing yards and the Broncos underutilized Julius Thomas. You don't think that means that Denver could move the ball through the air? Yes, the Pats were playing off a bit once they got up big after the Nink pick and the PRTD. Doesn't change that going forward they could tighten up a bit, and that even with his great physicality, which I love, Browner needs to watch the penalties.

 

[Richard Camembert]

Not this eyeball test. Devin was outstanding in 2011 and only had a couple, tops, that could be considered luck or just being in the right place.

You might be thinking about Arrington's 2012. He led the league in picks but really wasn't all that good that your..

Nope, I chose not to reference Arrington's 2012, though maybe it was a better example for my argument. I didn't think DMac was as good as his stats showed in 2011 and remember thinking, "Whew," after a few of the picks. I was using that year as an example of how turnovers are dependent on the other team's poor play some times, and contrasting that with Nink's pick which I thought was mostly attributable to Nink as opposed to Manning

 

[Oswlek]

I didn't think DMac was as good as his stats showed in 2011 and remember thinking, "Whew," after a few of the picks.

I couldn't disagree with you more. Devin was outstanding in 2011 and was a worthy pro-bowler.

 

[Richard Camembert]

I'll gladly take Browner's penalties, given what he adds to the defense.

Browner has 7 penalties (6 accepted) in only three games. I love the aggression too, but don't you think that's an area to improve in?

http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/b-browner-new-england-patriots?year=2014

 

[Oswlek]

Browner has 7 penalties (6 accepted) in only three games. I love the aggression too, but don't you think that's an area to improve in?

http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/b-browner-new-england-patriots?year=2014

Of course. Some of that is rep and can't be overcome, but the simple ones like jumping offside should be curbed.

However, that in now way leads to the conclusion that Browner's pass defense is especially vulnerable or that Manning's yardage total is all that meaningful. I'd also contend that NE had a hand in Denver's usage of Julius Thomas. It isn't like the guy was running amok and the gameplan just didn't call for him to get the ball.

This isn't meant to say that NE can't be passed on. Just that the pass defense is a strength, not an issue moving forward. It's all relative, after all.

 

[Richard Camembert]

I didn't think DMac was as good as his stats showed in 2011 and remember thinking, "Whew," after a few of the picks.

I couldn't disagree with you more. Devin was outstanding in 2011 and was a worthy pro-bowler.

All right, we disagree here. But if I had referenced that Arrington year instead of McCourty's rookie year would you agree with my overall premise?

 

[Oswlek]

All right, we disagree here. But if I had referenced that Arrington year instead of McCourty's rookie year would you agree with my overall premise?

Absolutely! (Though not necessarily with respect to this secondary, which I think is the real deal).

 

[RIpats88]

You know what shows that the stays are meaningless?

Before the chicago game the pats were 1st against the pass...now stats wise they are middle of the pack. And qbr and ffantasy would show you that cutler amd manning had solid games

But if you watched the past two games you would say those are the two best defensive performances by the pats in a long time. And cutler and manning stunk it up

 

[Richard Camembert]

Me too, and I think they will get even better as Browner gets more into the system, DMac and Revis get more in sync, Dennard gets healthy, Siliga gets back...