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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Oswlek, Jan 4, 2007.

  1. Oswlek

    Oswlek In the Starting Line-Up

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    For those of you with the patience to read a rather long, heavily math related article, football outsiders has a very good piece on regular season successes and how they correlate with postseason championships. A Pats related paragraph at the end should give all of us hope:

     
  2. Brownfan80

    Brownfan80 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Entertaining read Os, thanks.
     
  3. teamplay

    teamplay Practice Squad Player

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    great find! thanks!
     
  4. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is excellent stuff. Thanks very much. As someone who bought into The Hidden Game of Football a while ago, this website takes things to a whole new level.

    I went to the website and found the overall ranking of each of the 12 Playoff Teams for Offense and for Defense for "All Plays" using their DVOA system and then added them together to get a "Score" for each team, the lower the better. Here is what it shows:

    Eagles: 14 ("3" rank for Offense plus "11" rank for Defense)
    Patriots: 15 (7 plus 8)
    Ravens: 15 (14 plus 1)
    Chargers: 16: (2 plus 14)
    Bears 20: (18 plus 2)
    Giants: 22 (9 plus 13)
    Cowboys: 24 (8 plus 16)
    Saints: 24 (5 plus 19)
    Chiefs: 28 (10 plus 18)
    Colts: 28 (1 plus 27)
    Jets: 41 (15 plus 26)
    Seahawks: 47 (27 plus 20)

    It's difficult and risky to read too much into anything like this, but it does suggest that there are four Playoff Teams (Eagles, Patriots, Ravens and Chargers) who are in a class by themselves; and that all of the other teams are either very unbalanced or have significant flaws on both sides of the ball. Interestingly, of all the teams in the Playoffs, on this system the Patriots are the most balanced between Offense and Defense. It also validates my pick of the Eagles to represent the NFC. Very interesting stuff.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2007
  5. Oswlek

    Oswlek In the Starting Line-Up

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    The Patriots are the only team in the league that is in the top ten in offense, defense and special teams. Doing your ranking with special teams considered the top 4 are

    Balt - 19
    SD - 19
    Chi - 21
    NE - 23

    No other team even cracks 30
     
  6. Pat_Nasty

    Pat_Nasty Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    When you add the rankings like that, you end up blunting the system unnecessarily. The difference between the 1st and 2nd ranked offense team isn't necessarily the same as the difference between the 2nd and 3rd.

    Footballoutsider's already computes a ranking that combines a team's offense, defense, and special teams, in proportion, and comes up with an overall team score and ranking. You can find it here.

    (The Pats rank 5th in overall DVOA, and #2 in "weighted DVOA," which counts the first half of the season less than the 2nd.)
     
  7. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    thx for the guidance, i'm still learning my way around the website. bottom line tho is good any way we cut it. thx again. now, if only the game was played on paper...
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2007
  8. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

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