Injury prone "steals"

[Deus Irae]

A post by someone in the Ras-I thread has me curious on a topic that might spur some interesting discussion. Which players that:

1. Fell in the draft due to injury history
2. Didn't fall in the draft, but were known to have significant injury histories
3. Were signed despite a history of injury

Have gone largely healthy after their arrival, and which have continued to have significant injury histories in the NFL?

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Gronkowski.

Nuff said. That recent pick alone justified BB's injury gambles.

 

[fnordcircle]

Not sure I'm reading it right but it sounds like you want both people who went on to be mostly injury free and people who had lots of injuries?

First one who springs to mind is Curtis Martin who fell because of his injury(s?) at Penn and then went on to have a HoF career his torn abdomen notwithstanding.

 

[Tunescribe]

The best rookie injury gamble of all-time: Curtis Martin.

 

[AzorianPats]

Frank Gore, Willis McGhaee

 

[Rob0729]

Frank Gore, Willis McGhaee

Frank Gore is very relevant to the Pats since he tore both ACLs in college and only missed nine games in nine years. A friggin miracle for a RB with that running style. He is proof that a player can tear both ACLs and have a Pro Bowl quality career (He is a 5 time Pro Bowler and two time All Pro). It is a good sign for Easley.

 

[Mike the Brit]

When people call players "injury prone" they generally mix up three things.

1. Players who've had a lot of injuries

2. Players who get injured easily.

3. Players who've been injured and, for that reason, never fully recover and recapture an earlier level of athleticism

Last off-season this board was full of posters (they know who they are) who labelled Julian Edelman "injury prone". All the signs are he's had bad luck. Are there players who get injured easily? There's a lot of myth. No one who plays football at the level to get drafted in the NFL is 'soft'. But not all conditioning regimes are equal. On the other hand, there's no doubt about (3).

It's obvious that the Pats have to look to ways to draft effectively to compensate for the fact that they so rarely have picks high in the first round. As Rob says, it's a way to have a chance at an exceptional player.

 

[jmt57]

Although he does not technically fall into the definition of category number three since it was only one injury and not a history of injuries, the first player I thought of was Drew Brees. He had a bad shoulder injury due to a hit which, if I recall correctly, was delivered by John Lynch on a fumble.

Crazy as it sounds today, only two teams showed any interest in Brees in free agency: the Saints and the Dolphins. Miami backed off because of concerns over the shoulder, and instead signed Daunte Culpepper. That decision has got to eat at Dolphin fans every Sunday and every time Brees name is mentioned.

At least Miami showed some interest in signing Brees. Consider some of the starting quarterbacks that other teams had at that time:

• • Raiders - Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter​
  • Bucs - Chris Sims, Bruce Gradkowski​
  • Chiefs - Trent Green, Damon Huard​
  • Jaguars - David Garrard, Byron Leftwich​
  • Washington - Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell​
  • Arizona - Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner​
  • Browns - Charlie Frye​
  • Bears - Rex Grossman​
  • Texans - David Carr​
  • Vikings - Brad Johnson​
  • Titans - Vince Young​
  • 49ers - Alex Smith​

 

[Deus Irae]

When people call players "injury prone" they generally mix up three things.

1. Players who've had a lot of injuries

2. Players who get injured easily.

3. Players who've been injured and, for that reason, never fully recover and recapture an earlier level of athleticism

Last off-season this board was full of posters (they know who they are) who labelled Julian Edelman "injury prone". All the signs are he's had bad luck. Are there players who get injured easily? There's a lot of myth. No one who plays football at the level to get drafted in the NFL is 'soft'. But not all conditioning regimes are equal. On the other hand, there's no doubt about (3).

It's obvious that the Pats have to look to ways to draft effectively to compensate for the fact that they so rarely have picks high in the first round. As Rob says, it's a way to have a chance at an exceptional player.

When people call players "injury prone", they are noting that the players are prone to injury. From Webster's online:

1
: having a tendency or inclination : being likely <prone to forget names> <accident-prone>

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/prone

Rob Gronkowski has been injury prone. Julian Edelman has been injury prone (and the notion that one full season has miraculously changed that is absurd). Danny Amendola has been injury prone.

It is what it is.


What I'm really curious about is the value of BB taking those sorts of players, particularly when he gets them at a discount, either through a lower draft position that would otherwise have been expected (Gronk) or a lower price than might otherwise have been paid on the market (arguably Amendola).

Was Gronk worth his rookie deal? Has he been worth the extension?
Has Amendola been worth his deal?
etc....


Basically, I'm curious about some actual thoughts involving these maneuvers, rather than people just blindly asserting things like "Volmer's been worth it!/No, he hasn't!".

 

[unoriginal]

Keenan Allen dropped out of the first round and into the third last year due to injury concerns.
Eddie Lacy dropped into the second.

Patriots history:
Michael Buchanan fell to the 7th round primarily due to his injury.

Chandler Jones' knee injury had most draft prospectuses putting him in the 3rd round and he rose late, similar to Easley.

You could argue Cannon was injured and/or considered injury prone, not just from the general nature of lymphoma, but what chemo does to the body, the re-occurance of disease vs. physical injury, and the fact he was put on the NFI list to start.

Deaderick fell to the 7th in part due to that gunshot wound destroying his last season.

Brandon Tate fell to the 3rd due to his knee injury.

And Antwoine Womack went in the 7th due to an ankle injury his senior year.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Chandler Jones has been a pretty good example of exactly this, at least so far. Missed almost half of his last season at Syracuse, and lots of people here cited his injury history when objecting to the pick. Marcus Cannon too if you're willing to stretch the definition of 'injury' to include cancer.

Vollmer and Gronk both had back surgeries in college, and while they've remained injury-prone in the pros, they've both been more than worth their draft spots.

There are enough data points on both sides of the 'investing in injury-prone players' coin that it's clear both sides of the argument have some merit. All that you can assertively claim, IMO, is that they're generally higher-variance investments than durable players.

Anecdotally, I think there's a market inefficiency in that most players with knee injuries are undervalued, considering how advanced knee surgeries are today. That's part of I have about as little concern for Easley as you can reasonably have for a guy who's missed so much time from multiple injuries. There are other injuries, though--particularly hips and feet--that I would be a lot more wary of. Back injuries are somewhere in between--you still see careers wrecked by them, and see plenty of guys be totally fine.

 

[Rob0729]

When people call players "injury prone", they are noting that the players are prone to injury. From Webster's online:



http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/prone

Rob Gronkowski has been injury prone. Julian Edelman has been injury prone (and the notion that one full season has miraculously changed that is absurd). Danny Amendola has been injury prone.

It is what it is.


What I'm really curious about is the value of BB taking those sorts of players, particularly when he gets them at a discount, either through a lower draft position that would otherwise have been expected (Gronk) or a lower price than might otherwise have been paid on the market (arguably Amendola).

Was Gronk worth his rookie deal? Has he been worth the extension?
Has Amendola been worth his deal?
etc....


Basically, I'm curious about some actual thoughts involving these maneuvers, rather than people just blindly asserting things like "Volmer's been worth it!/No, he hasn't!".

I am not sure what you are looking for. With Rob Gronkowski, you have an elite top 5 player at any position in the NFL talent when healthy that is drafted in the second round. You gamble on a guy's injury history when you could possibly have the best TE who ever played the game when healthy. Ironically, for all the concerns about Gronk's injury history, he broke his arm on a nothing play and he tore his ACL on a play that anyone would have torn their ACL because TJ Ward went for his knees. For all the talk about Gronk's aggressive and reckless style, he has never been injured on one of those types of plays.

As for his extension, it was worth it. If he can't show he can stay healthy for the next two years, they cut him. If he does, they got him for a steal.

As for Julian Edelman, his injuries earlier in his career could be the product of him learning the WR and not knowing how to protect himself. Maybe with some maturation in the position, he isn't leaving himself open to some of the injuries he got in the past.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Adrian Peterson had numerous injuries in college and while his stock didn't drop much in the draft, there is no way in hell Gaines Adams, Levi Brown, and LaRon Landry should have been drafted ahead of him.

In the same draft, Paul Posluszny dropped to the 2nd round. He had considered coming out as a junior until he got injured. He would then break his forearm in week 3 of his rookie season, come back for a productive year, then break his arm in the 1st game of his third season. He came back to play well but missed 19 games over 3 of his 4 seasons and the Bills didn't think they could rely on him so they let the Jaguars sign him. He's started 47 of 48 games for the Jaguars, and was a Pro Bowl replacement last season.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Who was the guy here several years ago who insisted it was "injury proned"? Hilarious!

 

[fnordcircle]

Who was the guy here several years ago who insisted it was "injury proned"? Hilarious!

What a maroon.