Inexperienced vs Elite quarterbacks against NFL defenses.

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatriotSeven, Jan 31, 2012.

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  1. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

    Dec 23, 2011
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    There is a lot of talk about reading defenses and how elite QB's have an advantage over rookies or average quarterbacks when it comes to their ability to dissect NFL defenses. Now whether you want to give this credit entirely to QB's or a coach's ability to game plan for a rematch is up to you, but I thought these numbers were pretty interesting and do seem to back this up for when looking at the elite vs inexperienced quarterbacks who made the playoffs this year.

    2011 Elite playoff QB's vs defenses(Game 1 vs Game 2).
    Aaron Rodgers & GB:
    Chicago defense: 27 points < 35 points
    Minnesota defense: 33 points < 45 points
    Detroit defense: 27 points < 45 points
    Giants defense: 38 points > 35 points

    Drew Brees & Saints:
    Carolina defense: 30 points < 45 points
    Tampa bay defense: 26 points < 27 points
    Atlanta defense: 26 points < 45 points
    Detroit defense: 31 points < 45 points

    Tom Brady & Patriots:
    Buffalo defense: 31 points < 49 points
    NY Jets defense: 30 points < 37 points
    Denver defense: 41 < 45 points
    *Miami defense: 38 points > 27 points

    2011 Inexperienced/rookie playoff QB's vs defenses(Game 1 vs Game 2).
    Andy Dalton & Bengals:
    Cleveland defense: 27 points > 23 points
    Pittsburgh defense: 17 points > 7 points
    Baltimore defense: 24 points > 16 points
    Houston defense: 19 points > 10 points

    Tim Tebow & Broncos:
    Kansas City: 17 points > 3 points
    San Diego: 24 points > 16 points
    New England: 23 points > 10 points

    The Elites and their offenses have performed better and scored more points in 10 of their 12 combined rematches. Aaron and his offense performed worse in his rematch with the Giants, and Brady & the Pats performed worse in their rematch with Miami.

    Andy and Tebow have performed worse in their rematches against the same defense in all 7 of their combined rematches. This could be an indicator of their inexperience coming through when facing the same NFL defense twice. Defenses won the battle against both of them.

    This seems to indicate that yes, elite QB's who are experienced in reading defenses do in fact have an advantage when facing the same defense again so maybe they do in fact really deserve at least some of the praise and "elite" labels bestowed upon them.

    So what about Eli Manning?

    Eli & NY Giants:
    Washington: 14 points > 10 points
    Philadelphia: 29 points > 10 points
    Dallas: 37 points > 31 points
    Green Bay: 35 points < 37 points
    49ers: 20 points = 20 points

    Eli and the Giants offense performed worse or the same in all of his rematches except the Green Bay game, following the same pattern as the inexperienced/rookie QB's. Maybe their defense is improving, but their offense seem to get worse the second time around.

    Of course, I would imagine teams with a lot of rookies on defense also have the same issue in re-matches, where their defense would lose the battle in a rematch against Elite QB's due to the rookie defenders unable to overcome the experience required to read offenses at the NFL level.

    Take all this with a grain of salt due to not really having the time nor patience to do a complete analysis and compare all elite quarterbacks in their performance in rematches over the years but I still thought you may find it interesting.

    *Miami had a head coaching change between game 1 and 2 and Brady's had one of the longest time spans between games out of all rematches. There was only one rematch for T.J. Yates and Houston and their offense did play a lot worse against the Ravens in the rematch with Yates under center. But Yates did not play in the first game. Yates was 1-1 performing better against the Bengals in the rematch but that team was far too inconsistent at the QB position to really include them as part of this. It was only his 2nd NFL start against the first Bengals game, so score should be lower compared to the rematch. This is also indicated by the fact Houston's offense dropped significantly in points scored when Yates first took over.
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2012
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