Impact of a new CBA

[aabtec]

I have a feeling that there will be a new CBA before the draft. If there is do you think that the Pats will change their draft strategy?

Trade picks for next year?
Just reload this year and be done with it?
Reload this year with a bunch of us going .."Who is that guy?"

Thoughts....

 

[cstjohn17]

I have a feeling that there will be a new CBA before the draft. If there is do you think that the Pats will change their draft strategy?

I hope to hell you are right, the thought of no football with Brady is him prime is too much to bear. As for the rest of the post I don't think a CBA will dramtically impact thier draft strategy, where they will be picking the rookie salaries will be managable.

 

[MaineMan]

I kinda doubt that a rookie's potential salary has ever dissuaded the Pats from drafting a guy, though the prospect of having to negotiate with certain agents may have, but more wrt the possibility that the guy might miss significant pre-season practice time than wrt to actual $$/contract outcome. IOW, the trading down has less to do with avoiding shelling out big bucks than with increasing the odds of having a bunch of solid, young "do your job" type players in OTAs and training camp.

So, a new CBA with a possible rookie pay scale (which might not even be implemented until the 2012 draft) probably won't make any difference compared to how BB/scouts/coaches rate the available prospects - except insofar as how much a rookie cap affects which juniors come out.

 

[Metaphors]

except insofar as how much a rookie cap affects which juniors come out.

Exactly, but the important date there is January 15th (or something like that) when players must declare for the draft. At the point, players have to start preparing for all-start games and the combine so there really isn't an option to slide that date back. So this means it is likely that players will make their decision without a new CBA in place. I think that makes it likely that a new CBA will not change the rookie salary structure in 2011 since that might leave the league open to lawsuits (players were forced to make choices based on old CBA but sign contracts under rules of new CBA).

Unless there is some revelation between now and Jan 15th, I would expect all the juniors that have 1st round grades to declare. While this should be the case every year, waiting for 2012 could cost players millions.

 

[Water Boy]

I kinda doubt that a rookie's potential salary has ever dissuaded the Pats from drafting a guy, though the prospect of having to negotiate with certain agents may have, but more wrt the possibility that the guy might miss significant pre-season practice time than wrt to actual $$/contract outcome. IOW, the trading down has less to do with avoiding shelling out big bucks than with increasing the odds of having a bunch of solid, young "do your job" type players in OTAs and training camp.

I do think Pats consider a rookie's potential salary when drafting high in the first round - as well they should under a salary cap system. The current rookie pay scale is a joke and requires teams drafting high in the first round to shell out tens of millions of guaranteed money for unproven college players who've never played a single snap in the NFL.

 

[Wolfpack]

I have a feeling that there will be a new CBA before the draft. If there is do you think that the Pats will change their draft strategy?

Trade picks for next year?
Just reload this year and be done with it?
Reload this year with a bunch of us going .."Who is that guy?"

Thoughts....

I think their strategy will likely depend on if there is a new CBA and, if so, what it says. Popular opinion says that the new CBA - whenever it actually gets done - will have a slotted system for rookies to ensure cost certainty. So I am sure that is one of many factors the Patriots' braintrust takes into account.

 

[jeffbiologist]

If the CBA isnt redone before the onset of Free Agency I can see teams forgoing high priced free agents and placing a greater emphasis on the draft...which should increase the value of picks this year.

 

[MaineMan]

Exactly, but the important date there is January 15th (or something like that) when players must declare for the draft. At the point, players have to start preparing for all-start games and the combine so there really isn't an option to slide that date back. So this means it is likely that players will make their decision without a new CBA in place. I think that makes it likely that a new CBA will not change the rookie salary structure in 2011 since that might leave the league open to lawsuits (players were forced to make choices based on old CBA but sign contracts under rules of new CBA).

Unless there is some revelation between now and Jan 15th, I would expect all the juniors that have 1st round grades to declare. While this should be the case every year, waiting for 2012 could cost players millions.

Excellent point!

 

[MaineMan]

I do think Pats consider a rookie's potential salary when drafting high in the first round - as well they should under a salary cap system. The current rookie pay scale is a joke and requires teams drafting high in the first round to shell out tens of millions of guaranteed money for unproven college players who've never played a single snap in the NFL.

The thing is, the Pats have rarely had a pick up in the range where rookie salaries are truly stratospheric and difficult to manage against the cap: #7 in 2001 (spent on Seymour), #7 in 2008 (traded down to #10 for Mayo and an extra pick). After the 9-7 2002 season, they spent the #13 on Ty Warren. The Oakland pick is likely to be around #15.

The point being that, on the rare occasion they've actually had a "high" first round pick, they've spent it on a guy. OTOH, if they hadn't had Seymour, Warren or Mayo rated high for the Pats' system, OR, if they thought these guys would fall further, they would have traded down for extra picks. Rookie salary considerations would have had nothing to do with it.

 

[MaineMan]

If the CBA isnt redone before the onset of Free Agency I can see teams forgoing high priced free agents and placing a greater emphasis on the draft...which should increase the value of picks this year.

Especially for the Pats if the same free-agency restrictions are in place for the "Final Eight" teams (which the Pats will be among if they beat GB tonight).

 

[seanymac2]

I think we need to get P. Peterson. Man amoung boys out there!

 

[seanymac2]

I do wonder though how the uncertainty will play out of alot of the juniors debating to enter the draft

 

[seanymac2]

O well who am i kidding, we all know they'll pick someone that nobody expects and turn him to gold !

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I do wonder though how the uncertainty will play out of alot of the juniors debating to enter the draft

Nick Saban has reportedly talked to his juniors about staying put at Alabama due to the uncertainty:

Saban warns his underclassmen about leaving for NFL early | CollegeFootballTalk

If several among Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, and defenders Marcell Dareus, Mark Barron and Dont’a Hightower stay in school, that alone weakens this draft substantially. More importantly, you'd expect lots of other coaches are giving similar advice.

This might end up being a year where only the top 4 rounds contain the spread of talent that was there in 7 rounds last year.

 

[borg]

I have a feeling that there will be a new CBA before the draft. If there is do you think that the Pats will change their draft strategy?

Trade picks for next year?
Just reload this year and be done with it?
Reload this year with a bunch of us going .."Who is that guy?"

Thoughts....

I strongly believe that they will trade either their #1 (#32) or Carolina's #2 (#33) for future pick(s). The flexibility these extra picks allow is too valuable not too continue.
I also see BB using their #2 or either #3 in a trade to secure a quality veteran to fill an immediate need that a rookie draft pick can't...RB or WR would be my choice. Taylor and Morris will be gone next year, and we know BB values veteran RBs. Both positions, RB and WR lack depth.
Of course without the CBA getting settled, no player trades and no season

 

[mgteich]

These conditions are totally irrelevant unless they are part of a new CBA.

Especially for the Pats if the same free-agency restrictions are in place for the "Final Eight" teams (which the Pats will be among if they beat GB tonight).

 

[mgteich]

Saban is giving really bad advice. There is a strong possibility that the rookie cap won't be implemented until 2012. There seems little advantage in waiting other than to make the college teams stronger for 2011.

Nick Saban has reportedly talked to his juniors about staying put at Alabama due to the uncertainty:

Saban warns his underclassmen about leaving for NFL early | CollegeFootballTalk

If several among Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, and defenders Marcell Dareus, Mark Barron and Dont’a Hightower stay in school, that alone weakens this draft substantially. More importantly, you'd expect lots of other coaches are giving similar advice.

This might end up being a year where only the top 4 rounds contain the spread of talent that was there in 7 rounds last year.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

just posted part of this below on another thread - but realized it is more appropriate on this thread:

I wonder how if no CBA before the draft - how it would impact the draft that there would be (as I understand ) NO FA period before the draft. My hypothesis is that it actually could help the Pats 3 picks in 33 as follows:

1) No FA period before draft means no 'filling of significant holes' on the roster before the draft via free agents. Hence - more filling of holes during draft rather than the 'best person available' approach.

2) If #1 true, then filling of holes during draft means more teams reaching for offensive skill players in the first round - every team needs a starting QB, a decent RB and a capable LT - could also probably say same for elite CB's. (Most teams have more holes than NEP's - especially at the critical positions of QB, CB and OT's).

3) So #2 might mean more heavy offensive first round than usual as there are many QB needy teams this year.

4) Hopefully, my hypothetical run on QB's, OT's , CB's will allow some of the big bodies DE's and better OLB's to fall down the first round into the waiting arms of BB.

But naturally, BB can't resist the value of multiple picks in the later rounds and trades down the Oakland pick into the 2nd round - shattering my dreams of an elite 5 tech DE in the first.