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I'm still hopeful, and here's why


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I see the Patriots winning the division, winning a hard-fought home playoff game in the first round, and losing at one of the top two seeds in the second round. Beyond that I have no expectations and hope they surprise me.

Forced to make a prediction, I would say exactly the same thing. But that's what sports is all about, right? We don't know what will happen. Get to that second round game and let the chips fall.
 
I don't think I've ever watched the Pats through rose-colored glasses--I just go by what I see. And going by that, I think this team could still go far in the playoffs this year. Look at the problems so far, and question whether they can be fixed:

1) The offensive line. If the line, including Vollmer and Neal, is healthy for the playoffs, it will make a tremendous difference for this offense. Watching Kaczur getting steamrolled is painful.

Q: Can the line get healthy?

A: Of course. And play at a high level.

2) Brady. Just about every game this year except the Saints could have been won if Brady played like pre-injury Brady. The numbers aren't bad, but he's obviously not himself. The guy's human, and he missed a year.

Q: Can Brady be himself by playoff time?

A: Of course. Would you bet against him?

3) Coaching. Belichick has set such a high standard, it's jarring to see the Pats make the kind of mistakes we're used to other teams making. The coordinators aren't impressing anyone, particularly the offensive playcalling. The Pats lost yet another second half yesterday, and another 4th quarter lead. The feeling at the end of the game isn't what it used to be.

Q: Is there another coaching staff (HC and staff) that you'd rather have coaching the team come playoff time?

A: Nope.

4) The pass rush sucks. Actually it's more like a pass stroll, or pass crawl. Be it personnel, or schemes, any QB will look good if they have all day to throw, and good QBs will destroy you.

Q: Can the Pats pass rush, through more innovative schemes and/or certain players (Thomas) finally stepping up, perform at a championship level come playoff time?

A: Um....well....gee....this post is getting kind of long.....

OK, I'm stuck. See, no rose-colored glasses. Far as I can see, the Pats are out of luck here this year. Maybe somebody else can supply a better answer to this one.

The problem with your analysis is it's all self fulfilling prophecies. In other words, all the problems will solve themselves just because they will.

If that were true, why would there be problems?

I would say

3. Yes, other coaching staffs have done better jobs recently. The first step to solving something is to look in the mirror and acknowledge. Belichick himself is as good as anyone, but he has been so afraid of getting coaches poached, he hasn't hired top coordinators since Crennel and Weis.

Can he micromanage the defense with Pees? Sure. Pees is the more experienced coordinator and BB the greatest defensive mind out there.

On offense? Is he the greatest offensive mind? Does he have a creative OC? Let's admit that's a problem. I would say, using his analytical mind, he should break down the offense and rebuild the play calling based on what worked inthe past. Yes, in the playoffs with more focus, he can do this.

2. Brady. i don't really see a physical problem with Brady. flinging Hail Mary's to triple covered receivers isn't supposed to be easy. Mix it up a lot, but keep the formations/plays simpler. Sounds stupid, I suppose, but it's about execution and hitting the open man. Basic team sports. We violate those principles constantly.

Attack defenses and punish them with touchdowns from other receivers, TEs and Faulk when they double and triple Moss and Welker. If they don't adjust, keep ramming it doen their throats. If they do, we might see Moss open for the first time in three years (exaggeration).

1. The line is fine. If healthy (obvious) as good as we've had. Now that Brady will be getting rid of the ballquick and using the entire width of the field and many different receivers and Maroney is running, and the play calling is keeping the defense off balance, they don't need to hold the line forever. Problem solved on the line.

4. Defense pass rush.

The defense is young and athletic. We have players capable at every position, the line still has two all pro level players and two good vets, Mayo and others are capable and we have 2-3 proven pass rushers. Our secondary is young, but potentially outstanding and Bodden is the best CB since Clayborn and Law (imo) unless I'm missing someone (I was always a Samuel fan, but i think bodden is more complete). We have the best defensive mind around and the more experienced of the two coordinators.

I think the defense will peak and be outstanding, though they need to wrapup tackles and get AD on the same page or ditch him.

Solution for problems 1-3 = spread the field, get the ball to different people, get rid of the ball, simplify and execute the offense.
 
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I don't think I've ever watched the Pats through rose-colored glasses--I just go by what I see. And going by that, I think this team could still go far in the playoffs this year. Look at the problems so far, and question whether they can be fixed:

1) The offensive line. If the line, including Vollmer and Neal, is healthy for the playoffs, it will make a tremendous difference for this offense. Watching Kaczur getting steamrolled is painful.

Q: Can the line get healthy?

A: Of course. And play at a high level.

2) Brady. Just about every game this year except the Saints could have been won if Brady played like pre-injury Brady. The numbers aren't bad, but he's obviously not himself. The guy's human, and he missed a year.

Q: Can Brady be himself by playoff time?

A: Of course. Would you bet against him?

3) Coaching. Belichick has set such a high standard, it's jarring to see the Pats make the kind of mistakes we're used to other teams making. The coordinators aren't impressing anyone, particularly the offensive playcalling. The Pats lost yet another second half yesterday, and another 4th quarter lead. The feeling at the end of the game isn't what it used to be.

Q: Is there another coaching staff (HC and staff) that you'd rather have coaching the team come playoff time?

A: Nope.

4) The pass rush sucks. Actually it's more like a pass stroll, or pass crawl. Be it personnel, or schemes, any QB will look good if they have all day to throw, and good QBs will destroy you.

Q: Can the Pats pass rush, through more innovative schemes and/or certain players (Thomas) finally stepping up, perform at a championship level come playoff time?

A: Um....well....gee....this post is getting kind of long.....

OK, I'm stuck. See, no rose-colored glasses. Far as I can see, the Pats are out of luck here this year. Maybe somebody else can supply a better answer to this one.

Good post. Some thoughts:

1. There have been lots of teams who have struggled in the late season and then made a post-season run. Arizona last year is the latest example. They looked horrible against the Pats, then turned it around completely in the postseason. Pittsburgh in 2005 and Indy in 2006 are also good examples. Indy gave up 300+ yards rushing to Jacksonville in late 2006 and looked terrible. Just awful. They faced KC and Larry Johnson in the 1st round of the playoffs, and I thought they were vulnerable for an upset. They destroyed the Chiefs and went on a roll. The playoff Colts bore no resemblance to that team whatsoever, and won the SB.

2. The OL observation is a good one. Rest Neal now and get him back healthy for the postseason, and things could change dramatically. We haven't played a game yet this year with Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal-Vollmer on the OL. That line could be brutal. It could significantly improve our running game, and give TB better protection and more time to find the open receiver. Similarly, get a healthy DL back and the defense could be significantly improved. They held Buffalo to 10 points with a patchwork DL yesterday, and 7 of those were because the offense and STs gave them a short field.

3. A big question right now is how much of Brady's struggles are "regression" and how much are due to injury and skittishness because of the porous OL. I personally think that Brady's pretty beat up right now. The reports of rib fractures in particular could affect him, if true. If Brady gets healthy down the stretch and goes back to finding the open receiver and taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing the ball to Moss and Welker, then this offense could be totally different. We averaged 38 points from games 6-10, so the offense has potential to be much more explosive than it has been.

I thought Don Banks had the best line: "Winning ugly has become something of a Patriots specialty of late, but it sure beats the alternative of, say, dominating a good team like the Colts for most of the game and then finding a way to give away the W at the end."

The latest Bronco demise and more Snap Judgments - Don Banks - SI.com

This team is winning ugly right now, but that's a big improvement over blowing games to the Colts and Phins and getting blown out by the Saints. The 2003 team won ugly all the way to the SB. This team doesn't look remotely like the 2003 team right now, but stranger things have happened.

One and done is a realistic possibility, like 2005. If I had to guess, that's what will happen. But I wouldn't rule out the possibility of making a run.
 
Re: I'm Still Hopeful, and Here's Why....

I do have to say though..... I DO NOT like the way the 2009 Pats play at all.
As a Pats fan tough defense, physical play and a tough running game are the things that I find most endearing. This pass happy offense is great for stats and even scoring in bunches, but I am more entertained by a punishing running game (2004 anyone?). Quite simply...I don't like this offense.
The defense speaks for itself, it can't play worth sh.....t. Even if this team makes the playoffs or even SB it doesn't much matter to me, I don't like the way they play the game anymore (not physical, no heart, no fire) and I am quite simply as a fan....not entertained. Isn't that the point? Put an entertaining product out there for the fans to buy? If you follow a team because they win, well then good luck with that piece of psychology.

Wow. Here's a team that is 3rd in the league in defense that is gutting out wins with replacements on both lines with guys that get hit like Welker and Moroney over the middle and line/backs that is not letting anybody sack Brady and there's no effort there? Are you even remotely paying attention? This is the NFL. Everybody is good and tough. Do you think the Buffalo players were not up for a win yesterday? Those guys are playing for their jobs at this point and they know it. The only game the Pats were outmatched in this year was the Saints at New Orleans and for that franchise and city, beating the Pats was the highlight of the history of that franchise. Do you think that Denver and Indy are looking forward to playing the Pats a second time in the playoffs? You have to get past 2005 and 2007 and see how hard these guys are playing and how tough they are. - This is a very very different group of guys than the star-studded teams of the past. There's a lot less superior talent, for sure. These guys are working their asses off. Are you watching Banta-Cain, Mike Wright or Merriweather and how much ground they cover and how they get off blocks? Sebastian Vollmer is a monster and he's a rookie, for Peet's sakes. Questioning the effort and the defense misses so much. These guys had undefeated Indianapolis down 17 in the 4th Quarter - anybody else doing that? A couple of first downs and the Pats are fighting for the #1 seed instead of the #3 seed.
 
Good post, Aluminum Seats. The Pats are competitive and sometimes show flashes of greatness, but, ther are a middle of the pack team that is vulnerable to the pass and has an erratic running game. The loss of the field leadership could not have been predicted, but has been a major factor in their inconsistency, espacially in the defensive secondary. Be happy with what they have given us this year and hope that they will be a much more mature, focused team next year. P.S. No playoff wins this year.
 
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Good post, Aluminum Seats. The Pats are competitive and sometimes show flashes of greatness, but, ther are a middle of the pack team that is vulnerable to the pass and has an erratic running game. The loss of the field leadership could not have been predicted, but has been a major factor in their inconsistency, espacially in the defensive secondary. Be happy with what they have given us this year and hope that they will be a much more mature, focused team next year. P.S. No playoff wins this year.

Appreciate the hat tip, but are you serious with the PS? Who would the Pats lose to at home in the first round?
 
Re: I'm Still Hopeful, and Here's Why....

I do have to say though..... I DO NOT like the way the 2009 Pats play at all.
As a Pats fan tough defense, physical play and a tough running game are the things that I find most endearing. This pass happy offense is great for stats and even scoring in bunches, but I am more entertained by a punishing running game (2004 anyone?). Quite simply...I don't like this offense.
The defense speaks for itself, it can't play worth sh.....t. Even if this team makes the playoffs or even SB it doesn't much matter to me, I don't like the way they play the game anymore (not physical, no heart, no fire) and I am quite simply as a fan....not entertained. Isn't that the point? Put an entertaining product out there for the fans to buy? If you follow a team because they win, well then good luck with that piece of psychology.


As was said in this thread, "once the playoffs start its a whole new season". Well....not if your still the SAME team you were all year.
Like Elway late in his career, Brady needs his Terrel Davis to balance things. I would love to see some honest aggressive toughness brought to this offense.
 
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