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I'm skeptical this is a good draft year-Convince me otherwise

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by bigdgp, Apr 22, 2009.

  1. bigdgp

    bigdgp Rookie

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    I'm tired of hearing about the "depth" of this draft To me this only signifies that there isn't a better elite tier of draftees to choose from. There seems to be a lot of good (could be great) players. But the "skill players" of QBs, WRs, and CBs, seem to be overrated and having their draft value increase based on "intangibles" instead of measurable ability and potential supported by past performance. I feel this is leading people to overvalue the quality of the other positions as well. While it's certainly impossible to predict the future on a complete draft I challenge you to convince that this is anything more than an over-marketed average draft driven by the information/media age.

    DGP
  2. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    A few things to keep in mind.

    1) This draft has been said to be weak on QBs, CBs and WRs.
    2) The "Skill positions" are the only positions you measure the depth of a draft by. You measure it by the number of players who rate out similarly.
    3) Just because there aren't a lot of "elite" players doesn't mean that the draft isn't deep. On the contrary.
    4) Who are these players who are "over-valued" at other positions because of the lack of depth at CB, WR, and QB? How many games have you watched them in?

    You are being pretty damn cynical for someone with no factual information to back up your theory.
  3. Feep50

    Feep50 Rookie

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    This might be the worst draft since leather helmets and wooden goal-posts....
    Hope you have some house chores you need to do cuz this draft isn't worth watching.....:rolleyes:
  4. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    BB rolled one pick forward to 2009 and traded a couple players for another pick in this draft... :confused2:
  5. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    This is not a top heavy draft, but there's a great quantity of prospects at that second level. That's why I'm looking forward to the 2nd round more than the 1st. The Pats haved positioned themselves perfectly for this draft.
  6. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    We're still in the on-paper stage of the season where all draft eligible prospects have various degrees of potential. We always hope to find future starters in each draft -- impact players and potential Pro Bowlers are especially welcome. But Pats fans are tuned into the value of 'role players' as well. That said, with four selections in the top 60 prospects (23/34/47/58), it's very easy to find numerous players who not only fit the Pats profile, but are within reach of those slots. In addition, it's accurate to say, that any combination of four players have starter potential. For reference, see Mayoclinics' numerous posts on the various mocks, where he exhibits the many Pats options.

    And if four potential starters from one draft isn't enough, logic tempered with past history tells us that rounds 3-7 is where the role players lie waiting, not to mention another potential future starter as well.

    Suffice to say, upgrading the roster is the bottom line. And the quality and/or depth of this draft class will not determine the success (or failure) of the Pats draftees. For BB & Co., it's about finding players who fit the Pats system. And for the fans, having the patience to wait through the developmental process of each player.
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2009
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The only metric that will really matter as to whether this is a "good" draft year is BB and how he chooses to improve the club. If he finds value, he will use picks. If he doesn't like the value, he will trade out.

    2005 was probably the worst draft year of this decade, but the Pats did extremely well picking at the bottom of each round, finding starters in Logan Mankins, Ellis Hobbs, Nick Kaczur and James Sanders. 2006 was considered a much stronger draft but the Pats didn't get as much productivity out of it, and the track record of the first round prospects so far has been disappointing overall.

    2007 had a very strong top 12 or so players, but thinned out dramatically. BB obviously didn't like the value, trading out at 28 and in the 3rd round and trading his 2nd round pick for Wes Welker. He managed to do very well out of the draft in the long run, though not with immediate draft picks.

    Last year we had a rare top 10 pick, and all I can remember hearing was how week the top 10 was. BB moved back a few spots and came up with an impact player at a position of extreme need, plus a lot of depth.

    There's a lot of talent in this year's draft. Much more depth than usual. Some thinness at the top, but some terrific players (Curry, Raji, Malcolm Jenkins, the OTs). What is unusual is that BB has so much ammo that he can basically move around anywhere in the draft that he wants to. He alluded to this "flexibility" in his presser yesterday. If he sees value in the top 10, he can go there, without sacrificing his entire draft. If he sees it later, he can accumulate it in spades. If he doesn't see adequate value at any point, he can trade out, or trade picks for players. I can't imagine being in a better position, and I'm sure we'll come out with value in some form. As BB said, the only real metric of whether it was a good draft is whether it makes the team better.
  8. Bring Back Antowain!

    Bring Back Antowain! Rookie

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    The thing about this draft is that there isn't much separation between the first 2.5 - 3 rounds.

    While a round 1 player is obviously going to be graded higher than a round 3 player, or a round 2 player, there really isn't THAT much difference in this draft.

    And with 23, 34, 47, 58, 89, and 97, the Patriots are positioned absolutely perfectly.

    Be excited, this draft could change our franchise (hopefully keep the dynasty going after a bunch of the vets like Bruschi retire).
  9. bigdgp

    bigdgp Rookie

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    This is really your response to my question? This is the exact type of idiotic rhetoric that I'm referring to in regards to people evaluating players for this draft. I may be being overly cynical but I believe a lot of people are being overly optimistic.

    You say I don't have factual information? The factual information that supports my feelings is out there and being blatantly ignored. You've already acknowledged that the skill positions are shallow so let's move on to my next point about other positions being overrated. The number of players that are considered "safe" picks is horribly shallow.

    At LB the fact that we're debating Maualuga and Barwin for the 23rd pick is brutal. Maualuga has been picked apart and is likely a 2 down backer at best. Barwin while athletically gifted is inexperienced. The fact that his stock has risen so much further illustrates my point. If this draft wasn't so weak his stock doesn't increase as much as it has.

    At DE there is also no consensus top pick. Orakpo, Jackon, Ayers may be serviceable but none are locks as we've seen in the past.

    At TE the fact that the "Top" TE may drop to us at 23 is laughable and the quality behind Pettigrew is an even bigger drop off.

    Offensive Lineman may be the one area of the draft where there is true depth in this draft and is my guess for our 1st round pick.

    Who better to illustrate my point than one of the best coaches in the league? You may recognize this quote

    "Now, as you put it, who’s the top running back? Who’s the top receiver? Who’s the top tackle? Who’s the top corner? If you survey different teams and you know what’s on their boards, I think there is quite a bit of variability from team to team as to who those top guys are."

    I'm not saying that there aren't NFL starter quality players out there what I'm saying is that there are less in this draft than most drafts.

    I'm calling my shot and saying between our low needs and the depth of this draft we trade AT LEAST two picks from the 1st three rounds for picks next year. I combine this with the thought that we absolutely do not consolidate picks to trade up as their isn't anyone worth moving up for.
  10. patsfan1251

    patsfan1251 Rookie

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    The fact that you say this is not a good draft prooves to me either one of two things. 1. Ur a casual football fan (college) 2. You dont understand the importance of depth.

    This is a very good draft it is deep not top heavy but deep. Look at the positions you mentioned. WR is a strong class...you have 1 headliner and about 10-15 very solid players. CB is again a deep class.

    If your looking for a top heavy draft look for next year when 2 QB's (Bradford/Mccoy) and to Safteys (Erik Berry/Taylor Mays) may go in the top 5 picks. Along with other players from that Florida team which is returning all there starters like Dunlap, Brandon Spikes) and those from Oklahoma returning.
  11. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    What factual information? You claim its being ignored, yet you've failed to mention what it is that's being ignored. How do you KNOW its being ignored?

    The number of "safe" picks isn't what determines a draft. The number of "safe" picks is what determines how good the first round might be. But you should go back and look at other "safe" picks from previous years. I think you'll be surprised at how many haven't lived up to expectations.

    I have to disagree with you here. Barwin was a solid 3rd round pick prior to the start of the season. As the season went on, his stock has risen about a round and a half. But he's got the production to support that rise. As I've pointed out to others, Barwin is a football player who is athletically gifted. Not an athelete who likes to play football. There is a huge difference.

    As for Maualuga, unless you can see the future, you can't know that he's a 2 down LB at best. Also, while I don't care for Maualuga and think that he wouldn't be able to handle the Pats system from an intelligence standpoint, that doesn't mean he's not able to free-lance ala Ray Lewis and be effective.

    One of the reasons there isn't a consensus DE is because so many teams are switching from the 4-3 to the 3-4 (there are 3 more this year). That means that some of the DEs are being considered for the 4-3 DE position, a few for the 3-4 DE position and yet more for the 3-4 OLB position. All of them are different. And when you have players like Orakpo and Jackson being considered for multiple positions, some of the sites just throw them in a particular category. Also, one has to consider that there are very very few teams in college who run a 3-4 and its harder to project the 4-3 players into the 3-4 positions.


    How is this laughable? If you look at the history of the draft over the past 15 years, you'll see that very few TEs were drafted in the top 15. In fact, The Vernon Lewis' and Kellen Winslows are the exceptions, not the rule.

    There is tremendous dept at OT and at center. The Pats may look at OT, but I don't think they'll go for a guard until the 2nd round.

    Yes, I recognize the quote. I actually got to watch the stream live. But I don't believe this illustrates your point that the draft is actually weak. I'd say that this stresses the point that, because of the uncertainty of the CBA, teams are being significantly more focused on getting a player who will come in an help the team than in previous years. So they are focusing more on need and finding a player that fits their coach than they have in previous years. Even the Patriots spent significantly more time scouting the defensive prospects than they had in previous years.

    You are entitled to your opinion, no matter how wrong it might be. :D Seriously, though, I think that you need to re-evaluate the team needs with a focus on the future. With the current CBA, next year is uncapped. The Pats have the following players who will be either UFA or RFA next year in the event its uncapped:

    UFA: Stephen Neal, Tank Williams, Ben Watson, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Joey Galloway, Jarvis Green, Kevin Folk, Russ Hochstein, Tedy Bruschi, Leigh Bodden, Sam Aiken, Tully Banta-Cain, Chris Hanson and Nathan Hodel

    RFA: Logan Mankins, David Thomas, Nick Kaczur, Stephen Gostkowski, Ray Ventrone, Damane Duckett, Eric Alexander, Ellis Hobbs, LaKevin Smith, Pierre Woods, Billy Yates, Ryan O'Callaghan

    If the league and NFLPA, by some miracle, come to an agreement on a new CBA, all the players who are listed as RFA except for Ventrone and LaKevan Smith become UFA.

    So the Pats are going to want to pick players who they can have on the roster and who can learn behind the players they currently have. As I mentioned in another thread, I feel there are 14 spots up for grabs and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 6-8 rookies make the team
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This draft will be measured in the 3 or 4 years. There are few facts to work with other than the obvious lack of QB's and RB's at the top, although Moreno is likely underrated. It is boring for some that there are 4 OT's of top ten quality and another four who are of top 50 quality.

    SOME COMMENTS

    1) This draft has its greatest value between 20 and 75. Analysts have assessed the most value to be around pick 22.

    2) It takes 1-3 years for a player to develop, depending on position, although some player do start immediately.

    3) The players available in the 20-75 range match our needs. We ahve looked for potential 3-4 DE's and LB's for years. We offten can point to one or two. There are a dozen this year.
    There are sometimes 2-3 OT's and a couple of guards other than the raw projects. There are a dozen OL's who should be taken early.

    4) You say that we have no need. I don't know how many times we have to post the 11-15 open positions, positions where there is weakness. Perhaps you are satisfied with Spann and Tank Williams as our backup safeties. Perhaps you ahve great regard for Yates and Callaghan. And Redd and Ruud as our future starters must be an interesting projection.
    Our TE future stars Watson and Thomas are likely in their last year, and most would bid good riddance.

    5) And what about developing future starters or contributers to deal with the 2010 holes at DE and OG? Shouldn't we be drafting the replacement for Green and Neal?

    6) It is the height of folly to keep trading picks forward year after year. The reason for trading forward is to find the draft when the values available match our team needs. That time has come. I don't expect us to draft seven players in the first 100 picks, although I would like us to do so. I think it more likely that Belichick trades both up and down, more often down. It is as part of these trades that we might gain a pick or two in 2010. However, 2010 picks should not be the focus. We have needs that can be met now at DE, OLB, ILB, OG, OT, SS, FS and CB. And yes, we could use a RB of the future, and even a backup NT. Have I missed any positions. Sure! We also could use an upgrade at KR, PR, FB and #3 QB.

  13. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    Really?


    Barwin: 6'4 256 4.66 (40) 6.87 (3-cone) 4.18 (short shuttle)
    Gholston:6'4 258 4.65 (40) 7.12 (3-cone) 4.40 (short Shuttle)


    Gholston 2007 stats
    * 37 Tackles
    * 15.5 Tackles for loss
    * 14 Sacks

    Barwin 2008 Stats
    * 53 Tackles
    * 16.0 TFL
    * 11 Sacks.



    Connor Barwin went 6th overall last year, so I have a hard time seeing him as justification that this is a weak draft
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2009
  14. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    I agree, there are a lot of question marks in the first round, and with all the underclassmen coming out early this year the 2nd round is the place to get some serious value. I'm not just saying that because the Pats have 3 picks there either.
  15. DocE

    DocE Rookie

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    QB: Decent year, Stafford and Sanchez at the top with Freeman being pushed up boards partly due to lack of 2nd and 3rd round options. It seems like teams are looking really hard to find QB's worth taking in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

    RB: Poor year, Wells has the size/speed ratio, but Moreno worked out poorly. Donald Brown is the only guy I consider a 2nd round value, though McCoy, Brown, and Green could go there. Too many questions surrounding the top 2 (for me) and a lack of depth at the position.

    WR: I think this class is overrated, due to the lack of an elite size/speed guy at the top. Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Heyward-Bey, Nicks, and Britt still make this class better than average in my mind. I also like some of the smaller receviers expected to play the slot and some of those guys could be around in the 5th round.

    TE: Decent class. Pettigrew is the only complete TE, but Ingram, Nelson, and Cook all have huge upsides as pass catchers. Athletically, this is a very good class, but it's mostly potential.

    OT: Very good class with 4 OT's going in the top 10 and I think you can make a case that 3 of them would go in most drafts top 10 while Oher is a little bit of a reach in my mind (but still has great potential).

    OG: Weak class, but it usually is. Levitre is considered the best guard prospect by most.

    C: Strong class it's rare to have 3 C's at or near 300lbs who are all ready to play in the NFL and all could go by the end of the 2nd. Wood or Unger could end up being selected at the top guard in this class.

    DE: Average class. Tyson Jackson may be the first DE taken, so that says that there isn't a sure fire elite pass rusher in this draft. Lots of boom or bust 4-3 RE's or 3-4 OLB's that will go off the board from picks 10-50. There's certainly more 6-2 250-260lb "defensive ends" in this draft that are projected to go high than normal.

    DT: Weak class. Raji at the top with Hood and Jerry behind him. Gilbert is either a 4-3 3 technique or a 3-4 5 technique. Some interesting middle round guys, but there usually is.

    LB: Strong class. 4-3 teams have a lot to choose from in Cushing, Mathews, Maualuga, Laurinaitis, and Curry. Many of these guys get picked apart here for how they would fit in NE, but a lot of them would be very good in another scheme (and some would be good here). I don't think the depth of the class is outstanding, but when you have 5 non pass rushing LB's who could all go in round 1, that's unusual.

    CB: Weak class. It probably classifies as a terrible class if Jenkins is drafted as a FS. Davis is considered the physical freak of the group, but even his measurables are not overwhelming and he's got character red flags. Last years class was much, much better both at the top and in terms of depth later on.

    S: Average class. It's probably strange to call it an average class since there is probably not a first rounder, but there are 3 S's that seem to be locks for round 2 and a 4th who probably will go in round 2 in Johnson. I think the depth of this class makes it interesting. Guys like Chip Vaughn, Chris Cleamons, and David Bruton have very good measurables and will all probably go between round 3 and 5.

    Compared to last year, I think it's weaker through the top 10 unless you are looking for a QB. I think this draft is significantly stronger in rounds 2-3 than it was last year.

    For the Patriots I wish there were more OLB projects with height in this draft. I wish there was a truly elite Safety or CB that we could trade up for. Those are the glaring holes in this draft for me in regards to what I'd like to see added to the team. There isn's a Ware at OLB or a Champ Bailey at CB (on paper, certainly someone could turn in to players of this caliber).
  16. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    I'd have to agree with that evaluation for the most part. Last year's top 4 players - Long, Long, Ryan and Dorsey - are probably better than anyone in this draft. But after that, this draft offers lots of depth at many positions. If you think of Harvey being a top 10 pick last year, he's not at the level of Orakpo and Ayers, IMO. This year's OL class is probably deeper than last year's, as is the LB class. And the RB, TE and WR classes are acutally very solid.
  17. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    Your skepticism is noted. Too often a draft is measured by its superstars, and this team is no different. We dont really develop players here(Cassel excluded lol), at least thats my thought since we drafted a guy to play ST(Slater). This team may have the fewest "middle class"(IE-2nd-3rd rd)players in the league. Its a class system for sure, and BB would rather coach up a 5th rd to FA player(making less $$)as a backup than pay for one(2nd-4th rd player). If you are a 1st rd player you are expected to START, I expect us to swap alot of our picks for established players(former 1st rd). Get out that shoehorn and squeeze em under the cap...
  18. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A first rounder needn't start as a rookie. If that is the test, we would be severely limiting our draft options. Without using additional picks, the only players at 23 who MIGHT start are Laurinitis, Cushing, Matthews, Britton, Everret Brown and Loadholt. Curry and Jenkins could also start. Maclin and Rashad Johnson could be special teams starters.

  19. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Let's look at the Pats 1st round choices.

    1st year starter?
    2001 Seymour Yes
    2002 Graham No
    2003 Ty Warren No
    2004 Wilfork, Watson No, No
    2005 Logan Mankins Yes
    2006 Maroney No
    2007 Meriweather No
    2008 Mayo Yes

    3/9 Patriots 1st rounders in the BB era were starters in their 1st year. That's a rate of 33%. Conclusion: First year starters out of the 1st round are a rarity for the Pats.
  20. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    Wilfork did start his first year after Traylor got hurt I think. Unless you are talking about all 16 games.

    As far as second year goes, all the players were starters except Meriweather.

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