If Wes Welker Walks, Patriots Have Some Serious Work to Do

[supafly]

I still think it's possible for a Welker deal (2 years?). As great as he's been, a big part of his success is his rapport with Brady. It's quite possible, IMO, he could be an average to good short yardage receiver in a different system. Plus, he got through his franchise year without injury and banked a damn good salary for a 5'9" receiver. If the team wants him (sure they do) and he wants to stay (I bet he does) there's a number that could make that happen.

If another team offers way more with guarantees, that's another story, I guess.

I wish that I could share your optimism, and I certainly hope that you're right.

My concern is the more common sense thinking that if they didn't care to do it last year, why would they now do it a year later? Welker has taken more hits, had some nagging injuries that he played through during the season, and also is one full calendar year older too.

We all know that they surely didn't want to use the franchise tag last year at WR, which was not only costly at almost 10 million dollars, but was also a gamble since all of it was fully guaranteed.

When they removed a 2/16 extension deal from the table and lowered their offer, they pretty much put the writing on the wall in my opinion, especially since Welker really doesn't seem to be asking for money that is bank breaking.

I think that we need to start preparing ourselves for the very real possibility that Welker won't be here next year. His agent claimed last offseason that they were still about 6 million dollars apart for the guaranteed money. I think if both sides really wanted to stay together as you are claiming, that 6 million dollar difference would be narrowed by both parties down about 1.5 on each side. That would put them about 3 million apart in guaranteed money, which certainly would be doable from the front office's perspective.

My concern is that I simply think they are not budging, but I hope you're right. They could certainly spend another 1.8 million or so on an additional year of the franchise tag, but are choosing not to do so. I don't think that Belichick is nearly as worried about losing Welker as we are as fans. I have a feeling that he will take his chances on using a combination of other players in hopes of getting better value, even if some lessened production is expected. Either that or maybe he is really thinking about saving money and going younger with a player like Amendola? I think that he may be okay with saving the money and spending it elsewhere. It's certainly a possibility.

 

[Deus Irae]

Did we use a different system that year?

You really felt the need to make me go back and pull the other part of that quote

As great as he's been, a big part of his success is his rapport with Brady

because it accidently got chopped short?

C'mon, now, I was trying to be nice by just putting the numbers out there...

 

[mgteich]

We're on the same page. I like having a nine man OL, although clearly we have gone with 8.
8 is possible if McDonald is truly able to play all the positions.

We need to re-sign Thomas and sign a free agent OT that is good enough to be the backup starter on both sides. I'm indifferent as to who Dante chooses as the inactive backups, as long as one is an OT. With Thomas and the free agent vet, we will have our active 7.

So you would rather use the free agent or draft pickup on an outside guy, rather than an inside guy. That is certainly understandable. I was kind of assuming that one would be brought in that could potentially play both if needed, but that is a big assumption. I agree with you that it's better for the free agent vet to be able to play either both or strictly be an OT rather than a guard/center, especially only having McDonald backing up Solder and Cannon. I'm sure that Belichick won't go into the season with only McDonald, Hix, and Zusevics as the 3 behind the two starters. That would not be wise.

It's possible that McDonald could fill in both anyway, and then the list would look like this:

Interior

Mankins
Wendell
Connelly
Thomas

Outside OT

Solder
Cannon
(Free agent need/draftee, but most likely free agent vet)
ONE of Hix/Zusevics as developmental

Either/Or

McDonald

 

[RayClay]

You really felt the need to make me go back and pull the other part of that quote



because it accidently got chopped short?

C'mon, now, I was trying to be nice by just putting the numbers out there...

I do think a big part of his success is his rapport with Brady. However, I followed by saying that he might not be as successful in another system. If he was average to good, say catching 60-70 short passes, he might not be worth whatever you think he is. Let's take the example of Deion Branch. Before he was injured, was he worth what Seattle paid him, compared to his performance in New England.

Let's just say it's possible, like any player, that success in a different system isn't guaranteed.

 

[RayClay]

I wish that I could share your optimism, and I certainly hope that you're right.

My concern is the more common sense thinking that if they didn't care to do it last year, why would they now do it a year later?

The Patriots did offer a two year deal I believe. Welker wanted bigger and/or longer. He also proved to be still on his game this year. So, say another year older, that two years, plus banking that large franchise year, doesn't look so bad. Pats saw he hasn't slowed down, Welker gets security and still has the 9.5 mil in the bank.

 

[supafly]

The Patriots did offer a two year deal I believe. Welker wanted bigger and/or longer. He also proved to be still on his game this year. So, say another year older, that two years, plus banking that large franchise year, doesn't look so bad. Pats saw he hasn't slowed down, Welker gets security and still has the 9.5 mil in the bank.

The 2 year deal that they offered was an extension onto his last remaining low cost year, so in essence they were trying to tie him up for 3 more years and averaging the cost out accordingly. In other words, they pretty much lowballed him by removing the 2/16 deal (supposedly 80-90%+ guaranteed) off the table and lowering their "new" 2 yr offer. I don't think that any of the negotiations have gone over very well with Wes, especially after his taking a "leap of faith" comments when he signed the tag last spring/summer.

At that point his agent claimed that they were still 6 million apart in guaranteed money. It would seem that it was the guaranteed money that was the ultimate deciding factor, as it most often is. The only way they could have upped their guaranteed offer is by tacking on another year or so onto to deal, so yeah you're right...it really came down to another year which would have given him more guaranteed money. I'm really not sure if it could've been done with one more year or if it would have needed to be two, depending on whether or not the team was okay with something in the range of 3/24, but with guarantees in the high teens--which would obviously be the catch.

I certainly agree with you that they should do their best to re-sign him, but I was a bit leery at the thought of Belichick paying so much money two years in a row for a total of 2/21 (fully guaranteed) and a cap hit coming in at 11.4 this year. I figured that may be a 50/50 proposition at best, and it seems like if March 12 (or even Match 9th since that is day one for negotiating early deals) comes around, someone is going to certainly offer Welker more money to play for them.

I hope that isn't the case, but they need to get working quickly, and the best thing we can hope for is something productive to come out of the combine with his agent this weekend. Time is certainly running out.

 

[supafly]

And the GB Packers are now reported to be strongly considering the franchise tag for Greg Jennings as of this afternoon.

That could mean one more significant WR off the board, which may push Welker up even further.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

And the GB Packers are now reported to be strongly considering the franchise tag for Greg Jennings as of this afternoon.

That could mean one more significant WR off the board, which may push Welker up even further.

of course this hurts the chances of welker coming back. but even before this news i think he was gone...now i really think he is gone. 85% he walks

 

[supafly]

of course this hurts the chances of welker coming back. but even before this news i think he was gone...now i really think he is gone. 85% he walks

I've been thinking the same thing. My only real hope was that they may decide to go for one more year via use of the tag, and even then I thought that was 50/50 at absolute best.

And for anyone who honestly thinks that Tavon Austin will still be around at the end of the 1st round---they are fooling themselves tremendously. He is climbing, and is too much of an explosive player for someone not to take a chance on. If we honestly want Austin, we'll have to move up again. He ran an official 4.34 at the combine and is drawing more and more attention all the time.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I've been thinking the same thing. My only real hope was that they may decide to go for one more year via use of the tag, and even then I thought that was 50/50 at absolute best.

0% chance of using the tag on him...11 million for him. That would be stupid given his age. If it was 8 mill then i would say ok. pats screwed themselves with not getting a deal done years ago for him and now he will be gone

 

[supafly]

0% chance of using the tag on him...11 million for him. That would be stupid given his age. If it was 8 mill then i would say ok. pats screwed themselves with not getting a deal done years ago for him and now he will be gone

Well now there's a 0% chance of using the tag on him, but as of a couple of weeks ago that was pretty much my only hope. I just didn't think they'd be able to reach a long term deal based on the front office's moves from last year.

I agree that's when they messed up, but Belichick may be thinking something else.