If We Could Have Last Key Player

[Deus Irae]

What! Blasphemy! Of course, Belichick will draft a player better than Seymour.

Well, you know, my concern for this season has earned me the contrarian label, since I'm not overdosing on the Koolaid for this trade. So, I figured that I might as well just go nuts and double down.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

1.) This season actually counts.

2.) Seymour can still play several productive seasons

3.) That pick is not guaranteed to be a top 5 or top 10 pick, despite all the claims

4.) The odds are that the pick will not be a player as good as Seymour

1) so do season's 2012-2022, which I still plan on being a Patriot fan and I'd prefer to be one on teams that resemble the 2000's and not the 1990's

2) Yeah, but only 1 here.

3) Given....... Lets revisit this thread in 2011 and see who's right. Deal?

4) Your willing to bet that Seymour's 2009 impact is greater then player x's impact for the 5-10 years that player will be here.

Let me refresh BB's 1st round history

2008 - Mayo (10th)
2007 - Merriweather (24th)
2006 - Maroney (21st)
2005 - Mankins (31st)
2004 - Wilfork (21st), Watson (32nd)
2003 - Ty Warren (13th)
2002 - Dan Graham (21st)
2001 - Seymour (6th)

Now go ahead and tell us again (with the straight face - Not just Deus..... Anyone actually) that Seymour's 2009 production will MATCH the CAREER HISTORY'S of anyone of the players on that list. Again 1 29 y/o Seymour year vs. the Career impacts of any of those above for the patriots, particularly the ones in red (top-15 picks, which the Raiders pick project's to be).

Even if we GIVE you Maroney , that's still 89% success. Pretty Dam good odds.

 

[shmessy]

Let me refresh BB's 1st round history

2008 - Mayo (10th)
2007 - Merriweather (24th)
2006 - Maroney (21st)
2005 - Mankins (31st)
2004 - Wilfork (21st), Watson (32nd)
2003 - Ty Warren (13th)
2002 - Dan Graham (21st)
2001 - Seymour (6th)

Now go ahead and tell us again (with the straight face - Not just Deus..... Anyone actually) that Seymour's 2009 production will MATCH the CAREER HISTORY'S of anyone of the players on that list. Again 1 29 y/o Seymour year vs. the Career impacts of any of those above for the patriots, particularly the ones in red (top-15 picks, which the Raiders pick project's to be).

Even if we GIVE you Maroney , that's still 89% success. Pretty Dam good odds.

That's some pretty definitive factual stuff there, PiNY. Objective versus Subjective analysis is powerful.

 

[Deus Irae]

1) so do season's 2012-2022, which I still plan on being a Patriot fan and I'd prefer to be one on teams that resemble the 2000's and not the 1990's

Ok, I'm getting tired of this argument. It's so ridiculously stupid that I assumed people would smarten up and grow out of it. This team just used 12 draft picks and most of those players made the team. Next season, the team has a first round pick and 3 second round picks. In 2011, the team still had a first and a second. Not having this 1st was not going to somehow cause this team to collapse. It's one draft pick 2 years down the road, which means that the player won't be hitting his stride, even if he's great, for 3-5 years.

2) Yeah, but only 1 here.

Actually, under the Current CBA, the Patriots could have controlled Seymour for at least another 3 seasons.

3) Given....... Lets revisit this thread in 2011 and see who's right. Deal?

Why? You don't rate a trade for a draft pick on the fortunes of the future. For example, are you now saying that the Patriots will have completely screwed the pooch if the pick isn't until the 20's in that draft?

4) Your willing to bet that Seymour's 2009 impact is greater then player x's impact for the 5-10 years that player will be here.

Let me refresh BB's 1st round history

2008 - Mayo (10th)
2007 - Merriweather (24th)
2006 - Maroney (21st)
2005 - Mankins (31st)
2004 - Wilfork (21st), Watson (32nd)
2003 - Ty Warren (13th)
2002 - Dan Graham (21st)
2001 - Seymour (6th)

Now go ahead and tell us again (with the straight face) that Seymour's 2009 production will MATCH the CAREER HISTORY'S of anyone of the players on that list. Again 1 29 y/o Seymour year vs. the Career impacts of any of those above for the patriots, particularly the ones in red (top-15 picks, which the Raiders pick project's to be).

Even if we GIVE you Maroney , that's still 89% success. Pretty Dam good odds.

Now you're putting words in my mouth, and in a ridiculous manner. What's worse is that you have to know I'm not saying what you're claiming I am.

By the way, what player on that list has been better than Seymour?

 

[Deus Irae]

That's some pretty definitive factual stuff there, PiNY. Objective versus Subjective analysis is powerful.

Wow...... you've really just completely sold out.....

 

[shmessy]

It's one draft pick 2 years down the road, which means that the player won't be hitting his stride, even if he's great, for 3-5 years.

Really??? 2 out of the 3 top 15 picks we've had this decade say hi. (I'll agree re: Warren, who may not have hit stride until year 3).

 

[mgteich]

You seem to have no concept of discounted value. Why not trade Seymour for a 2013 1st?
The reality is that each year a draft choice is dimished by one round.
======================================================
It is VERY LIKELY that Belichick would have been able to move on of our 2010 seconds forward to a 2011 first. How many firsts do you think Belichick wants each year. Sure, Belichick will do well with the pick. But that pick may be no different than the two 2009 3rds Belichick traded into 2010 2nds, one of which might have been traded into a 2011 first.

In fact, apparently Belichick was offered a 2010 second, but wanted the 2011 first insteade, in essense doing the 2010 draft day trade ahead of time.

The bottom line is Seymour was dumped for the equivalent of a 2009 3rd round draft choice. Oh, and did I mention that we likely could have kept Seymour and gotten a 2011 3rd when he left.

1) so do season's 2012-2022, which I still plan on being a Patriot fan and I'd prefer to be one on teams that resemble the 2000's and not the 1990's

2) Yeah, but only 1 here.

3) Given....... Lets revisit this thread in 2011 and see who's right. Deal?

4) Your willing to bet that Seymour's 2009 impact is greater then player x's impact for the 5-10 years that player will be here.

Let me refresh BB's 1st round history

2008 - Mayo (10th)
2007 - Merriweather (24th)
2006 - Maroney (21st)
2005 - Mankins (31st)
2004 - Wilfork (21st), Watson (32nd)
2003 - Ty Warren (13th)
2002 - Dan Graham (21st)
2001 - Seymour (6th)

Now go ahead and tell us again (with the straight face - Not just Deus..... Anyone actually) that Seymour's 2009 production will MATCH the CAREER HISTORY'S of anyone of the players on that list. Again 1 29 y/o Seymour year vs. the Career impacts of any of those above for the patriots, particularly the ones in red (top-15 picks, which the Raiders pick project's to be).

Even if we GIVE you Maroney , that's still 89% success. Pretty Dam good odds.

 

[Deus Irae]

Really??? 2 out of the 3 top 15 picks we've had this decade say hi. (I'll agree re: Warren, who may not have hit stride until year 3).

No, they don't. They weren't at their best in years 1-2. If you think they were, I don't know what to tell you.

Are you now taking the Koolaid via IV?

 

[shmessy]

The bottom line is Seymour was dumped for the equivalent of a 2009 3rd round draft choice. Oh, and did I mention that we likely could have kept Seymour and gotten a 2011 3rd when he left.

So David Thomas equals Jerod Mayo?

Oh, and by the way, we now have more cap room in 2009 - - the book ain't closed.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Now you're putting words in my mouth, and in a ridiculous manner. What's worse is that you have to know I'm not saying what you're claiming I am.

Actually, if you read re-read my quote I had already added;

Now go ahead and tell us again (with the straight face - Not just Deus..... Anyone actually)

Because I realize your argument. I'm actually just trying to bring it to the abstract. Not to get into a pissing contest.

I don't think, looking realistically at what we got/gave is very equal. I tried pointing that out.

We weren't keeping Seymour after this season. ANYONE that looks objectively at that, completely understands that. Not a DE, that's on the wrong side of 30, that does have some recent injuries and whose production is CLEARLY off his early career.

 

[shmessy]

No, they don't. They weren't at their best in years 1-2. If you think they were, I don't know what to tell you.

Are you now taking the Koolaid via IV?

I wouldn't underestimate the rookie seasons of messrs. Mayo and Seymour.

Of course, they (probably, re Mayo) don't hit a peak in year one. I'll take Mayo's and Seymour's rookie seasons over the 2009 Seymour any day.....and twice on Sunday.

 

[patriotscpfc]

I take back my earlier answer.

Who I would trade it for.

Larry Fitzgerald.
Adrian Peterson.
Ryan Clady (taking age into account)
Peppers
Freeney (since we are 4-3)
Patrick Willis
DeMarcus Ware
Nnamdi Asomugha/Asante Samuel
Ed Reed.

That's pretty much it.

 

[tunafish]

I wouldn't underestimate the rookie seasons of messrs. Mayo and Seymour.

Of course, they (probably, re Mayo) don't hit a peak in year one. I'll take Mayo's and Seymour's rookie seasons over the 2009 Seymour any day.....and twice on Sunday.

Amen. :singing::singing::singing::singing:

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

Demarcus Ware or Ed Reed

 

[tunafish]

I take back my earlier answer.

Who I would trade it for.

Larry Fitzgerald.
Adrian Peterson.
Ryan Clady (taking age into account)
Peppers
Freeney (since we are 4-3)
Patrick Willis
DeMarcus Ware
Nnamdi Asomugha/Asante Samuel
Ed Reed.

That's pretty much it.

Pretty sure we couldn't get any of these players for a 2011 first..

 

[furley]

I was thinking... I would make this trade if it were possible. Probably, unrealistic when you consider Oakland, I imagine, likes Bush.

Maroney seems like a finesse player while Bush is the more ideal power runner.

My understanding is Maroney, Taylor and Morris are all signed through 2010, and Faulk will be a FA after this season.

Bush would come cheaper than Maroney and could be a moderate risk/moderate reward player.



According to Rotoworld...

Michael Bush
6/16/1984
6'1'' 25
2009: $460,000, 2010: $550,000, 2011: Free Agent

Laurence Maroney
2/5/1985
5'11'' 24
2009: $600,000, 2010: $825,000, 2011: Free Agent

 

[patriotscpfc]

Pretty sure we couldn't get any of these players for a 2011 first..

Correct.

Therefore that pick for Seymour is a bargain.

 

[tunafish]

Correct.

Therefore that pick for Seymour is a bargain.

False. All those players are playing at a much higher level than Seymour of the past few years. Not to mention the only one of those players on the final year of their contract is DeMarcus Ware.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Let's not forget that all of this assumes that BB is using a defensive scheme in which Seymour would be used (for the same amount of reps), that he has in the past.

1) I don't think the evidence supports that, and in fact in a ton of other "Seymour" thread, indications are the opposite.

Only 1 person (okay perhaps a few) know really how our defense will scheme this year and have all of the information to know how ANY of our D-linemen will project into it.

will we be having a little more aggressive, stunting 4-3 setup that requires a little less bulk and more speed on the end in more situations. If that's the case, Jarvis's stock goes up a little, and Seymour's goes down.

Not saying that's what's gonna happen, but the reality is that the D-line is a series of moving parts, and the premise that BB just arbitrarily got rid of someone and deliberately hurt the team is just silly. It's one thing to get caught of guard with a "Branch" scenario, another to make a deliberate move like this.

The fact that Wilfork was also mentioned in all this tells me that whatever roll they may have filled over the last few seasons, may not exactly be the same as what BB is looking to do. Ditto Vrabel or anyone else that ain't here from last year.

 

[patriotscpfc]

False. All those players are playing at a much higher level than Seymour of the past few years. Not to mention the only one of those players on the final year of their contract is DeMarcus Ware.

I mean in terms of the Patriots.

First round pick is great business for Bill, Caserio and Kraft.