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If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by DarrylStingley, Mar 2, 2008.

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  1. DarrylStingley

    DarrylStingley Rookie

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    Do people think that the Pats are saying "go ahead, take a look at the market, but come back to us with what you get and we'll match it if we can"?

    Because if they are doing that, I think they're demented.

    Who was the last player in any sport (other than Bernie Williams and Andy Pettitte) who hit the open market and then signed with the original team after giving that team the chance to match. Maybe that happened with Mike Lowell, too.

    But the Pats have tried that approach before and it's never seemed to work.

    I hope they aren't playing that game here.

    Thoughts?
  2. Tyler.Durden

    Tyler.Durden Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    So you think he is a Carlos Boozer
  3. patsgo

    patsgo Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    that game didnt work out very well with vinetari or branch, if hes talking to other teams hes good as gone
  4. DarrylStingley

    DarrylStingley Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    No. I think he's a normal human being and that if he starts getting wooed by other teams, and those teams tell him how much they want and need him and that they'll pay him more money -- a lot more money -- than NE, that the normal response is to "F it, I'm doing this deal!"

    And I'm saying that if the pats are planning on Moss saying "hold that thought, I'm giving NE last licks," that they are taking a big risk that Moss is different than most humanoids.
  5. Roidney73

    Roidney73 Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    Stallworth just got a SEVEN YEAR CONTRACT and Bernard Berrian just got huge jack. The Pats were plain stupid to not have a deal done at 12:01am on the first minute of free agency. Make no mistake, Randy wants money and Randy will get a ridiculous contract. He might give the Pats a 1million dollar discount as Schefter reported but really, what's 1million dollars? I'm starting to hope the Pats don't re-sign him at all, that's a lot of dough!
  6. Mack Herron

    Mack Herron On the Roster

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    ARod. But I agree that (a) Moss is dissatisfied with the Pats offer and (b) Moss is likely to get a better offer from someone else. Would that make him decide the Pats offer is suddenly acceptable? I doubt it. Would the Pats suddenly scrap their best offer, toss all the analysis that dictates their distribution of cash and match another offer? I doubt it.
  7. RussFrancis

    RussFrancis Rookie

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    If its gonna cost $12mil per for 3 or 4 years, then Im not gonna miss him. That's just too much for a guy that didnt get us a ring with him. And Im certainly not blaming him for us not getting the ring. But with 50plus players to roster, giving that much of it to a position that the Pats have proven in the past they win without a stud just doesnt make sense. He said he wanted to stay in NE. He should know how things work here, and WHY it is theyve been able to keep the nucleus of a championship team together. No one player outside of Brady is worth sacrificing an organizational philosophy. If its money he's after, let him chase it. If its legacy, respect and possibly a title, then he'll stay. it'll end up being entirely up to him. until Moss makes his decision, I'll reserve judgement.
  8. flasox27

    flasox27 Rookie

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    Let me ask you what team is going to give him the money he is looking for and wants to play for. I think he will be back.
  9. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    No game here, the Pats won't pay Moss $10 million per year in a long term deal. They'll give him a shirt term deal for big money, or a long term deal that is cap reasonable. If another team is willing to offer Moss an Asante $amuel deal, they're all the more foolish for it. Only quarterbacks are worth that kind of cash.
  10. hernandeztribe

    hernandeztribe Rookie

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    :eat3:

    I was thinking that maybe they were secretly restructuring Brady's contract to make his cap hit lower and bring him up to a market rate for a #1 QB. Once that was done , then they would sign Moss, sign Gaffney, extend Wilfork, extend Mankins and go after a couple of free agents and still have money for the draft. I hope that Moss returns.

    it would be nice to see

    moss
    welker
    gaffney
    jackson
  11. PatsNuts

    PatsNuts Rookie

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    The eagles will pay what he wants so would alot of other teams. I would exclude the cowboys according to the dallas morning news they want javon walker. But do not exclude jacksonville they have the cap space to play this game. theres a few places that would pay just to keep him away from the pats.
  12. PittPatriot

    PittPatriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....



    Boozer simply is a liar and unethical whore who cheated the Cavs. I am surprised Karma hasn't found his ACL yet.

    Moss is much more 'straight' in this regard than Boozer.
  13. Vern

    Vern Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    The issue is not out-bidding yourself. Vinatieri and Branch wasn't a situation where we couldn't match, but rather decided not to match.

    The strategy is "if the market is going to be that dumb, let them be."

    To do this, you have to be committed to not overpay the amount you have set for a player. There's a smallish chance the market agrees and you end up with the player, but even if not, the team who signed him paid more than you felt he was worth, which means it was no loss to you, and may end up hurting them in a net sense (if your value was right).
  14. DarrylStingley

    DarrylStingley Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    I don't think Adam gave them a chance to match.

    I think very few players do.
  15. Vern

    Vern Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    The point I was making, is that the view of OTHER teams should not change your own. If you say a guy is worth X and some other team says he's worth more, why should you suddenly think he is worth that?

    Basically, you either believe your own scouting and evaluation or not. Just because some other team's process put a higher value on a guy, you shouldn't change your opinion of the contribution and worth that he will have on your team.

    BTW, there are often situations where a guy IS worth more to some other team than to you. More often, though, other teams have a different view of where they wish to invest, and the amount of contribution they may get.
  16. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    Stallworth's deal is closer to $4.5-5M per with $10M in guarantees. That is far less than what Branch got. Berrian's deal is 6 years $42M but with $13M in guarantees it's really closer to a $6.5M deal or just about what Branch (and Wayne) got 2-3 years ago. Players get more up front money on long term deals. Both of these guys are not the elite talent Randy is, but they are also 3-4 years younger.

    Deals today are all about the first three years. That is the standard by which they are measured once the agent driven early hype/spin gives way to the reality of the contract terms. Florio was opining on his site last night that if Berrian got $13M guaranteed Randy should get $20-30M... That is not the way it works. His age and length of contract and presumed future production, not what he did last season, are what will determine what his deal entails. If some GM decides to overpay based on what he did here, it is what it is. I don't think that will happen for a lot of reasons. Randy is not a good value on a 4 or more year deal because too many bad things can happen in that span of time that can change his attitude/impact perceptibly.

    Teams don't like to be used to leverage other teams. GM's have their own short and long term team goals to accommodate. Perhaps Jerry Jones is intrigued by a potential pairing of TO and Randy, but he also has to deal with the reality that 34 year old TO is in the last year of a 3 year deal that only averaged $8M, that he is thinskinned and competitive to the point he will need to be at least on par with Randy where paychecks and touches are concerned, and that Wade is a lame duck HC who could be overwhelmed by a lot less than trying to balance those two egos in one clubhouse, not to mention young Romo having to placate two divas and a productive TE. They have placated TO in part up to now by treating/embracing him as the defacto leader of the team. What happens when one outshines the other or one drops a pass the other felt he was wide open for...or God forbid they sign a RB from Arkansas to create further buzz.

    In Greenbay Brett is entering his last season, unless he decides not to. They have a solid core of young receivers who will be catching passes from Aaron Whatshisname in the forseeable future. They don't need a Randy Moss as anything more than a one and done sidebar to Brett's swan song season.

    Indy - as if Polian's adversity to FA spending weren't enough, they are just $4M or so under the cap unless they restructure the combined $31M cap hits of Manning and Harrison. And with an opt out of the CBA looming, those contracts remain a killer unless Manning is restructured via extension PDQ. Harrison, who signed a heavily salary and bonus backloaded deal in his mid 30's is presently an $8M dead cap hit so if they push much of his 2008 salary forward he will remain that for 2009. The last two big ticket players he acquired through FA and pricey trade were one and done in Indy. And in the end they won a ring without either.

    Jacksonville was a logical alternative for a lot of reasons, but they already moved to sign Porter to a $30M deal. They may have cap, but they lag way behind in cash. NO with Brees would be a possibility, but they too lack cash and that would likely not be the best environment for a player who has had issues. SD is another team with lots of cap and little cash - one reason they build through the draft - not to mention lots of egos they are already struggling with, and a QB who may not be ready to go before the season commences.

    I think most of the speculation is just that, media driven story lines based as much on a media that wants to see something else happen other than Randy remaining in NE.

    Aside from Fitzgerald, who only landed in a cap killing contract situation because the Cardinals ownership is almost patholocically inept, Marvin Harrison is the highest paid WR in the league by contract at $9M per and he averaged just under $11M per in his first 3 seasons and will average just under $10M per after 4 if in fact he is able to return after missing almost all of the third year of his deal. Marvin is not as elite a talent as Randy, but he had been consistent performer in Indy prior to last season. And his deal was largly incremental with just a $6M signing bonus and $19M in unguaranteed roster bonuses against low salaries over the first 3 seasons of a 7 year deal he will not finish.

    If the Patriots offer to Randy was 3 years $30M with $12-13M in guarantees, I think it is a fair market offer. Maybe you bump the bonus money up by a couple of million in exchange for a 4th phony backloaded salary season for amortization purposes. But you don't do something stupid because even as this little situation unfolding has shown, Randy remains a potential high risk as well as potential high reward player to have to count on. Smart coaches and organizations tend to make critical judgements based less on potential than consistency and track record. Mediots create story lines by over hyping players and situations.
  17. Vern

    Vern Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    This situation is all about the guarantees.

    Corey Dillon cashed in big but the guarantees meant his cap number was still going strong two years later when he was done. I believe he counts against the 2008 Cap for almost 4M!! The Pats won't make that mistake again, with virtually the same type of impact but aging vet who took a discount in year one.

    If Moss wants 25M or more up front, the Pats are locked into the guy for three years or more due to the proration. I strongly doubt this is about Moss' yearly cap hit in years one and two, but rather, the structure of the deal should Moss' decline be sudden. I'd suppose the Pats have put together something with successive Roster bonuses rather than a large signing bonus. That way, in the middle of year two (2010) they can decide to cut him and not have two more years of dead money like they had with Dillon.

    Hell, even the Brady and Seymour deals were structured with steps and roster bonuses to mediate the cap hit and flexibility. I doubt Moss would be much different.

    Players of course, seek the opposite for a reason. Giant up front cash insulates against any sudden decline in skills, whether injury or age related.
  18. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....


    Brady signed a long term deal. Richard took the short bus version. His deal guaranteed $18M of his $30M for the 3 year extension. However, because he signed the deal with 1 year remaining on his rookie deal they were able to spread that $18M guaranteed option bonus over 4 years. That also practically made his 4 year AAV $8M as opposed to $10M. I think they saw that as a way to give him what he needed (the 3/30/18) in contract value spin while limiting their committment to him due to his injury/performance issues. The can then revisit a retirement type extension for him in 2009 if they feel he will be durable into his 30's. If not, they either franchise him or draft his replacement and say sayonara.

    There isn't much you can do to mitigate cap hits on a short term deal that is not an extension. Generally speaking deals usually boil down to either more for less or less for more (but with a little more up front in exchange for longer term cap flexibility). That is why Stallworth got $10M but the Browns have up to 7 (eventually) to spread it out. His first 3 cap hits can be marginal and his dead cap beyond that minimal.
  19. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....

    Why don't the Pats offer 50M for 5 years with a 15M bonus then. Is the bonus money too litte? How far apart are the Pats and his agent?
  20. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Didn't the Jags just sign Jerry Porter to a pretty good deal (for Jerry), and traded for Troy Williamson? Do you really think they're planning on going after Moss, too?
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