If Texans win next Sunday at 1 pm, REST EVERYONE (except Brady)!

[Finnishfan]

This was the first thought I had after the results from last weekend.

If the Texans win, then we have to assume that the bye is out of reach with Broncos playing the Chiefs. That would also mean that finishing on the 3rd seed would mean playing the Broncos on the divisional round.

I would much rather have the Broncos on the Conference finals, because that would give us 1 extra week to heal before we face them. I think that 1 week could be a difference maker.

Also, the wildcard game against the Colts is more favourable IMO than a game against the Bengals. We have lost to 49ers, Ravens, Seahawks and Cardinals, from which only the Ravens have a suspect defense (although they were much healthier when they faced us than they are now). So I would much rather play against the Colts good offense and suspect defense, than the Bengals stout defense and slightly above par offense.

So if the Texans win, I would like to see both TEs, Welker and Lloyd receive as few snaps as possible (more playing time for backups, a lot of rotation among the starters, no hurry-up, slow drives using up as much clock as possible.. etc.). Also on defense, Wilfork, Jones, Mayo, Spikes, Talib and Dennard need as much rest as possible (Wilfork because of reducing his possible fatigue, others because of health issues).

HOWEVER, I would not sit Brady, because he needs to keep his rhythm going. History has shown us that sitting starting QB's in week 17 doesn't usually translate to playoff success. We don't want to increase the risk of Brady having a slow start, because that is the biggest issue besides health in our offense right now.

 

[ausbacker]

No. There's no form like winning form.

 

[jmt57]

Three thoughts:

• The Patriots have not yet clinched the number 3 seed. A loss plus a win by Baltimore drops the Pats to the #4 seed (there's another thread debating the merits of that idea here: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...icle-stating-why-makes-more-sense-4-seed.html).
• Do you really want to purposely risk heading into the playoffs with back-to-back sloppy games?
• Do you really want to put play Brady behind the weakest possible offensive line you can put on the field?

 

[BradyManny]

If what Bedard says is true, we might want to rest a bunch of starters anyway. Welker and Hernandez specifically. Their health is too important, and they nded rest.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

You can't give up on this game if Houston wins because although I don't see it happening, the Chiefs could somehow beat the Broncos. So the Patriots are playing to win.

I would personally approach the game like this. Rest the following: Spikes, Talib, Dennard, Vollmer, Mankins. I think we can still beat the Dolphins without them. I'd play Gronk if his arm is healed and get him back into playing shape. Judging by the fact that he will have over 2 weeks of practice by the time of kickoff, he should be able to play. Whoever's healthy, play them. If the game gets out of reach pull all starters.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Three thoughts:

• The Patriots have not yet clinched the number 3 seed. A loss plus a win by Baltimore drops the Pats to the #4 seed (there's another thread debating the merits of that idea here: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...icle-stating-why-makes-more-sense-4-seed.html).
• Do you really want to purposely risk heading into the playoffs with back-to-back sloppy games?
• Do you really want to put play Brady behind the weakest possible offensive line you can put on the field?

This is another good point, despite the Colts/Broncos possibly being easier matchup than the Bengals/Texans there's still advantages to being #3. As bad as the Ravens have been lately, I think they've proven capable of beating a WC team at home, and upsetting one of the top 2 on the road. If we make the AFCC, there IS a chance it could be against Baltimore and given their home vs. road performances we would really really want that game to be home.

 

[Ring 6]

The best way to screw up the playoffs is to not take a game seriously because you think the other team you are competing for the spot with can't lose their game.
The best way to lose in round 1 is to treat week 17 like a joke and have your team unprepared to play in round 1.
Football players play football. The Patriots are not significantly more banged up, worn out, run down than any team.
I am OK with pulling some of the players late in the game when the game is in hand. But they need to prepare 100% and go 100% until the game is in hand. Otherwise you take a football team and act it to act unlike a football team at the time it most matters.
There are only 53 players and 45 actives, you can't sit many players anyway.
Brady has consistently showed that he plays better in a groove than after inactivity.

 

[PlainOldEd]

I agree with Herm.....

 

[Ring 6]

This is another good point, despite the Colts/Broncos possibly being easier matchup than the Bengals/Texans there's still advantages to being #3. As bad as the Ravens have been lately, I think they've proven capable of beating a WC team at home, and upsetting one of the top 2 on the road. If we make the AFCC, there IS a chance it could be against Baltimore and given their home vs. road performances we would really really want that game to be home.

As a 3 if you get to the AFCCG you only need 1 game to go your way, the 1 losing, to have the AFCCG at home. As a 4, you need both the 2 and 3 to lose back to back to the 6. It is a tremendous long shot to be home for the CG as a 4, unless you really think the Bengals will go to Bmore and Denver and win both. I don't.
Being home for AFCCG should be the primary seeding goal.

 

[Patsrock]

I can imagine this board on Sunday if say the Pats start to rest guys and lose but Denver also loses. All the people saying they should rest guys, lose to drop to 4th seed will be screaming why did they did they rest guys.

I say go all out get a huge lead and then start to sit guys.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

As a 3 if you get to the AFCCG you only need 1 game to go your way, the 1 losing, to have the AFCCG at home. As a 4, you need both the 2 and 3 to lose back to back to the 6. It is a tremendous long shot to be home for the CG as a 4, unless you really think the Bengals will go to Bmore and Denver and win both. I don't.
Being home for AFCCG should be the primary seeding goal.

Say Houston/Denver/NE wins Sunday, we are the 3 seed and win round 1. That means the winner of 4 vs 5 goes to Houston, who has really not played very well since maybe October. I think there's a very good chance of an upset there and we'll be hosting the AFCC if we can beat Denver.

 

[TheBeers]

It stinks that the Colts have nothing to play for in that game. I saw this coming for the last few weeks going over scenario's on the playoff machine. Hopefully Chuckstrong and being a divisional opponent are enough motivation for Colts to pull off the W. But realistically both the Texans and Broncos want to win to keep their playoff position. I would like to see us try to win our game no matter what. Can't control anything else.

 

[Ring 6]

Say Houston/Denver/NE wins Sunday, we are the 3 seed and win round 1. That means the winner of 4 vs 5 goes to Houston, who has really not played very well since maybe October. I think there's a very good chance of an upset there and we'll be hosting the AFCC if we can beat Denver.

TOTALLY agree. The chances of 4/5 winner beating 1 and many, many times greater than 6 beating 3, then beating 2.
Whether it happens or not is something else, but it is crazy to not set yourself up to benefit from it.
I would consider it a 30-40% chance vs a 5-10% chance, and when you consider the teams involved it may be a bigger gap.

 

[PlainOldEd]

It stinks that the Colts have nothing to play for in that game. I saw this coming for the last few weeks going over scenario's on the playoff machine. Hopefully Chuckstrong and being a divisional opponent are enough motivation for Colts to pull off the W. But realistically both the Texans and Broncos want to win to keep their playoff position. I would like to see us try to win our game no matter what. Can't control anything else.

The Colts will not lay down. They need to keep momentum going to have a shot in the playoffs. Does that mean they will definitely win the game? No. But if they lose it won't be for lack of effort.

 

[mgteich]

We've been here before. I think that we should have rested Welker then and now. I also wouldn't start Brady behind an OL with starters out.

On defense, we should rest Talib, Dennard, Spikes, and Cole in any case.

 

[Ring 6]

It stinks that the Colts have nothing to play for in that game. I saw this coming for the last few weeks going over scenario's on the playoff machine. Hopefully Chuckstrong and being a divisional opponent are enough motivation for Colts to pull off the W. But realistically both the Texans and Broncos want to win to keep their playoff position. I would like to see us try to win our game no matter what. Can't control anything else.

If the Colts lose at home to Houston, a wild card win means they need to go to Houston after losing to them twice in the last 3 weeks of the season, including at home.
This is still football, and you still have a game to go out and play and what you do on the field vs an opponent does matter. The Colts are a young team, and they absolutely should play to win that game, if they are smart.
If they are shooting for a wild card win and blowout in the divisional round, they should sit everyone they can. If they are in it for what they should be, they need to send a message to their div round opponent (who won't be their div round opponent if they beat them)

 

[voluntarysaftey]

Agree with OP. Odds of Broncos losing to the Chiefs if the Pats are trying to win is almost 0.

Best way of going about it is to somehow try to get the game delayed (call challenges, time outs early, throw the ball more so on incompletes you can use the full playclock) while playing your starts in the first quarter; so that the Broncos have to play hard while our starters are in. If the broncos pull away, then throw in our subs.

 

[TheBeers]

I agree with both of you Andy and Ed. There is a flipside though with the Texans.. Going into the playoffs losing 3 of 4 and losing the bye would really be disappointing for them (and totally awesome for us Pats fans).. tough seeing that happen though. We'll see, I hope you guys are right!

 

[Patsrock]

Agree with OP. Odds of Broncos losing to the Chiefs if the Pats are trying to win is almost 0.

Best way of going about it is to somehow try to get the game delayed (call challenges, time outs early, throw the ball more so on incompletes you can use the full playclock) while playing your starts in the first quarter; so that the Broncos have to play hard while our starters are in. If the broncos pull away, then throw in our subs.

So you want to ruin the flow of your teams game? How about go out and play your normal game and let the chips fall.

 

[Deus Irae]