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If not Givens then who?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by harveyw, Jan 21, 2006.

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  1. harveyw

    harveyw Practice Squad Player

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    Personally, I am a huge Givens fan and would love to see him in a Pats uni for years to come. However, if we cannot resign him who do we get to replace him? Please do not tell me Moulds...although I have respected Moulds for years I do not want to replace a young talented receiver with someone on the tail end of his career. I would like to bring in Moulds, but not as a replacement - more like an addition. Whether it be through the draft or via free agency who would you guys like to see as a Patriot in the 2006-2007 season at wideout?
     
  2. Digger44

    Digger44 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Most of us have been talking about Randel-El as a replacement.
     
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I wouldnt be interested in Randall El. He does not impress me at all.

    The answer really is that there are about 80 starting caliber WRs in the NFL. If Givens leaves, we just need to choose the one among the 80 that is available and fits our system best. All of them can catch passes from Tom Brady, and anyone good enough to start in the league will replace most of Givens production (not saying they would all be as good, but would produce). BB just needs to fit one into his system.
    I havent looked up the FA list, but assume there are a dozen or more WRs that BB would be interested in making an offer to.
     
  4. tombonneau

    tombonneau In the Starting Line-Up

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    Here is a list of FA WRs courtesy of theredzone.org:

    Code:
    Player Type 2005 Team 
    Aaron Moorehead  RFA Colts 
    Andre' Davis UFA Patriots 
    Antonio Bryant UFA Browns 
    Antwaan Randle El UFA Steelers 
    Arnaz Battle  RFA 49ers 
    Az-Zahir Hakim UFA Saints 
    Brad Pyatt  RFA Colts 
    Brandon Lloyd  RFA 49ers 
    Bryan Gilmore UFA Dolphins 
    Cedric James UFA Patriots 
    Charlie Adams RFA Broncos 
    Chris Horn RFA Chiefs 
    Corey Bradford UFA Texans 
    Cortez Hankton  RFA Jaguars 
    Darnerian McCants UFA Eagles 
    David Boston UFA Dolphins 
    David Givens UFA Patriots 
    David Tyree RFA Giants 
    Derick Armstrong RFA Texans 
    Dez White UFA Falcons 
    Edell Shepherd  RFA Buccaneers 
    Ike Hilliard UFA Buccaneers 
    J.J. Moses  RFA Cardinals 
    Jabar Gaffney UFA Texans 
    Jason McAddley UFA 49ers 
    Jerheme Urban  RFA Seahawks 
    Jerome Pathon UFA Falcons 
    Joe Jurevicius UFA Seahawks 
    Kassim Osgood RFA Chargers 
    Keenan McCardell UFA Chargers 
    Kelley Washington  RFA Bengals 
    Kendall Newson UFA Dolphins 
    Kevin Curtis  RFA Rams 
    Kevin Johnson UFA Lions 
    Kevin Walter  RFA Bengals 
    Koren Robinson UFA Vikings 
    Marc Boerigter UFA Chiefs 
    Michael Lewis UFA Saints 
    Nate Burleson  RFA Vikings 
    Patrick Johnson UFA Ravens 
    Peerless Price UFA Cowboys 
    Peter Warrick UFA Seahawks 
    Quincy Morgan UFA Steelers 
    Randal Williams UFA Raiders 
    Reche Caldwell UFA Chargers 
    Reggie Swinton UFA Cardinals 
    Reggie Wayne UFA Colts 
    Rod Gardner UFA Panthers 
    Sam Aiken UFA Bills 
    Sean Morey UFA Steelers 
    Shaun McDonald  RFA Rams 
    Tim Carter UFA Giants 
    Tim Dwight UFA Patriots 
    Troy Brown UFA Patriots 
    Troy Edwards UFA Lions 
    Troy Walters UFA Colts 
    Willie Ponder RFA Giants 
    
    A guy on this list that I LOVE and would be a perfect givens replacement is ARNAZ BATTLE. He's a RFA and it will depend what SF tender him, but if its the lowest, that's a no brainer, bc he was a 6th I think (?).

    Even tendered a 3rd he is worth it IMO.

    The guy is pretty much the same size as Givens and would fill the same role in our offense. He's a scrappy players, ex-QB from Notre Dame who had to bust his ass just to make the roster.

    Not to mention he's fast with great hands. I had him on my FF team early in the season, so I was paying attention to a lot of SF games, and the guy would always make the tough catch in traffic, and was an absolute beast in the red zone.

    IMO, he would be an absolute ideal fit in our system. He has Patriot written all over him.

    SF actually is in an interesting position, as they need to resign Lloyd who is their #1WR and they also recently invested a #1 in the slow-to-develop Rashaun Woods, so it will be ineresting to see what kind of tender they give Battle.

    Either way, I think he would cost significantly less than resigning Givens and frankly I do not think there would be much of a drop off in production.

    I wouldn't mind Randel El either, but that would give us two smaller WRs, I think we will need a guy with some decent size (at least 6').
     
  5. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    That's the problem with Givens - he's a LOT better than other FAs... and while undersized his production as a #2 reciever is well established.

    Someone will pay - and likely overpay - for his services. I'm not holding my breath expecting the Pats to resign him, but at some point in Tom Brady's career they are going to have to spend some money to give him a receiving corps that can do some major damage

    Maybe the feel Branch is already in the role of the undersized guy who makes the big play. Certainly Watson is a Ben Coates type threat as well.

    What they really need is a big, speedy stretch the field receiver - but if they want to overpay Givens a little bit, I won't be unhappy. You know what you're getting with him - you're taking a chance and potentially wasting money with other FAs.
     
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Why the interest in Randal El?
    I just dont see what there is to get excited about. He caught a whopping 35 passes this year, and has never caught 50 in a season of his 4 year career.
    I think he is one of the most overated players in the NFL. For some reason since he was a good running QB in college there is this opinion that he is a great athlete and weapon. I dont see what skills he has (other than the obvious ability to throw better than most WRS) that are any different than what anyone capable of playing WR in the NFL has.

    The only spot I would want Randel El for is 3rd down RB.
     
  7. tombonneau

    tombonneau In the Starting Line-Up

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    I agree. I think he's more of a 3rd WR coming out of the slot.

    But my post was more about pimping my boy Battle. :)
     
  8. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I know Im getting a rep as being Anti-Givens around here. I'm not sure why, I'm just assessing him and think many Pats fans overrate him. I like him, want him here, would pay him decent bucks, but see him differently than a lot.
    So, here we go again.

    You said:
    his production as a #2 reciever is well established.

    That seems to imply that it is excellent for a #2.
    I disagree. If you look at the numbers, they really are pretty average for a #2 WR, and basically the same as David Patten put up in that role in 01-02.
    There are numerous WRs throughout the NFL that have similar production.

    If that IS what you were implying, what do you find about his production that is excellent?
     
  9. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Frankly, 35 passes as the Steelers 3rd option is impressive. I think they had fewer passing plays than any other team in the NFL this year. And Ward got the lion's share, and as the season wore on, Heath Miller was the #2 target. I would LOVE to add ARE as a #3 receiver, punt returner, and #3 quarterback.
     
  10. drew4008

    drew4008 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I'm with AJ here. I think Givens is a good receiver, but has been that way because of Brady mainly. We shouldn't overpay for him when someone else can do his role. We are underrating Brady again and his ability to make a WR look good. IMO, Andre Davis can put up the same stats as a #2 guy if need be, although I wouldn't take the risk, and I still think drafting a guy like Holmes would be smart.
     
  11. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    First of all, tombonneau, thank you for the good list ... to help us focus.

    Secondly, i'm also glad to read your characterization of Arnaz Battle. Puts him high up on my screen. Both NotreDamers, eh?

    In the thread on what it would take to re-sign David, did we ever agree on a range? One good point raised there was that extending Branch (expires '06) logically should come first ... lest a Givens deal raise the branch too high. :)

    If 2 to 2.5 a year would insult David ... i'd be content with giving him an average of 3 mil a year ... with the cap hit on a sharp slant due to signing bonus.

    To me this implies a ceiling of 4.5 for Deion ... giving us a pair of fine catchers for about 7 1/2% of the future cap total. For comparison, Santana Moss got a wee bit above 5 mil per from the free-spending Skins.
     
  12. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    http://www.nfl.com/stats/playersort/NFL/WR-RECEIVING/2005/regular?&print_rows=9999&_1:col_1=6

    Out of the 173 wide receivers who caught a pass last year only 29 wideouts had a higher yards per game average than did Givens. 24 of them were #1s. Six of them (Fitzgerald, Wayne, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Porter, Terry Glenn,Engram) were #2 wideouts.

    Out of the 173 wide receivers who caught a pass last year only 34 wideouts had a higher receiving yards total than did Givens. 24 of them were #1s. 9
    (Fitzgerald, Wayne, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Porter, Evans, Glenn, Lelie, Engram, Curtis) were #2 wideouts.

    Out of the 173 wide receivers who caught a pass last year only 34 wideouts caught more passes than did Givens. 26 of them were #1s. 8
    (Fitzgerald, Wayne, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Porter, Toomer, Glenn, Lelie, Curtis) were #2 wideouts.

    Note: I am considering Terry Glenn the #2 wideout on the Cowboys.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
    Givens is ranked 28th in DPAR and 34th in DVOA.


    When I look at the numbers, I do not see that "they really are pretty average for a #2 WR" instead I see numbers that put Givens in the top echelon of #2 wide receivers and numbers that are better than several #1 wideouts.

    BTW, Givens ran a faster 40 in the NFL combines (4.56) than did Darrell Jackson (4.58). So, there is no empirical evidence that Jackson is closer to a speed burner than is Givens.
     
  13. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    My answer would be his blocking ... downfield ... on the edge ... and perhaps even return teams.
     
  14. patsfan55

    patsfan55 In the Starting Line-Up

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    i think martin nance could replace givens
    miami u of ohio wr
    6'5", great speed for his size

    and we do need a slot receiver
    i think greg jennings could fill that role
     
  15. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I disagree with the idea that catching 35 passes as a starting WR is impressive under any circumstances. If you are surpassed by your TE that is not the sign of a good WR.
    Their 3rd WR found a way to catch 26, and Ward caught 69.

    I put more belief in "If he was better they would get him the ball more" than "they threw it less than other teams".
    He caught only 15% of Pittsburghs completed passes. That means if Pitt completed the league average amount of passes, he would have totalled 45.
    45 receptions by a starting wide receiver in a balanced offense is puny production.
     
  16. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    While i share your enthusiasm for Randle-El, dryheat ... thinking of him as a game-emergency #3 qb doesn't click. You still can only dress 45 on gameday ... meaning that you'd have to inactivate an 8th position player (which normally would be QB3, with a special dispensation.)
     
  17. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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  18. harveyw

    harveyw Practice Squad Player

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    What is the fascination with the college QB, NFL WR types? Randel El cannot replace Givens and nor can Battle, who isn't even a free agent to the best of my knowledge. Randel El is a #3 at best, and in my mind more of a PR/KR guy. I would like to add his return abilities, but not as our #2 WR. If we let Givens walk we need to sign a veteran to step in right away and draft an eventual replacement. Some of us got a little drunk on the Kool-Aid thinking we can plug people in at any position and it works. We have had success doing that lately, but eventually our fortune will run out (ie. Biesel/Brown/Starks etc...).

    Anyone have any comments on who we should look at in the draft? I see Holmes and Hagan as the only 1st rounders. Stovall in the 3rd or 4th is intriguing and I am sure CW will let BB know more about him if we are interested. Now I am not saying that we should draft WR early or late, I just want to hear what you guys think of the depth at WR in the draft.
     
  19. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I just dont consider that 'excellent' production.
    There are other variables in it as well.
    The Patriots completed the 6th most passes in the NFL. That would say 'average production' as the #2 receiver would put him 38th among WRs. He was 34th, and # 38 was only 4 catches behind.
    The fact that Branch was 15th there would appear to be more catches available for a #2 here than on other teams.

    Do you disagee that the raw numbers need to be interpreted to system, QB, and players surrounding?

    David Pattens #s as the #2 WR here were basically identical to Givens.

    I thought Patten was a pretty good #2 and I think Givens is as well.

    I just dont see Givens anything near irreplaceable, and I think many WRs could be plugged into his role and be similarly productive.

    I know we disagree on this, and thats fine, but my opinion is what it is.
    Givens is a good football player, I hope we keep him. My opinion,which I totally accept could be wrong, is that he will not be highly sought after as a FA. I hope I am right, so we can keep him, and not have to compete with silly offers.

    Perhaps where we disagree is that I think that stats are a product of much more than the ability of the player. I think there are a certain # of catches for a player playing a position on a given team. That number varies depending on the team based on scheme and other players on the field. I think in our system any capable #2 would catch 50-60 passes. Or in other words, when any one of our receivers has been out of action over the past 5 years, someone else usually stepped in and the production remained reasonably consistent. For example, in 2 of the games Givens missed, Tim Dwight stepped in for him as the "#2". He caught 8 passes for 146 yards. (That would equate to 52-949 over the 13 games Givens played) Dwight only caught 11 other passes in the other 14 games this season. I dont think any of us would consider Dwight a good #2, but in 2 of the 3 games Givens missed, Dwight alone made up mostly for his production. (The 3rd was NO where the 2nd leading WR was Davis with 1 for 60, which supports your side)

    Again, I AM NOT KNOCKING Givens. I think his production is fine for a #2 WR. But I dont see is as substantially better than a typical WR BB would consider capable of being a #2.
     
  20. harveyw

    harveyw Practice Squad Player

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    God how I hate stats...if stats were the end all be all, Peyton Manning would probably the greatest QB ever. How about Givens blocking, I haven't heard much about that yet. Or how the majority of his receptions are for first downs. How about how he steps up in the playoffs. This kid is an asset to our team and to think we can simply plug anyone off the street to replace him is not our best option.
     
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