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Thanks Brono, you have the stats to back it up!
If the Jets get the #5 seed and the Pats get the #4 ( strength of victory overcome by Cinn) they could meet in the first round.......
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If the Jets get the #5 seed and the Pats get the #4 ( strength of victory overcome by Cinn) they could meet in the first round.......
There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.
The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.
These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.
The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.
So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?
I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.
There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.
The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.
These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.
The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.
So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?
I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.
As I said, I was not looking at perfect storm scenarios dealing with strength of victory.
There's a spread of 5 games right now, correct?
Since each team only plays 13 opponents a year, and since only 10 games against those 13 opponents were wins, a 5 game spread would effectively mean that every single team that the Patriots beat would need to lose Sunday, and every single team that the Bengals beat would need to win.
It's just not going to happen.
But once again, you are correct. I stated here that you are the only person on the board crazier than I am.
There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.
The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.
These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.
The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.
So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?
I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.
I did a thread already that looks at each scenario, and its called, "the Patriots wild card opponent will be:" All the scnarios are there.
In this case, the Jets get in ahead of the Ravens and Broncos because the Jets will have a 4-1 common opponents record.
Then you start the two-team tiebreaker between Den and Balt, and Balt has the advantage head-to-head.
You may be perfectly right, but the way I would interpret the rules is that the Jets and Broncos have the better records against common opponents, and the Ravens are last in that tiebreaker and are therefore out without ever going to the next tiebreaker. i.e., you only go to the next tiebreaker when the previous one doesn't break the tie. The common opponents tiebreaker breaks the tie - Ravens out.
There is no tie. Jets win common opponents outright with a 4-1 record.
Then don't say it's an impossibility and can;t happen when it can.......I'm possessed.
I refuse to go into variable strength of victory scenarios and tie-game scenarios as some have, so it's good to know I'm not the most insane person on this board.
Then don't say it's an impossibility and can;t happen when it can.......
In post #4, you wrote
""It can't happen.
Patriots-Jets is an impossibility in the first round.""
And I explained how it can happen based on strength of victory.
****Jets win and they are in as #5 seed...We all agree on that.
***IF the Pats lose, they will have the same record as Cinn (10-6) and same conference record and the tie breaker is strength of victory which the Pats lead by 4 as of today..If those teams that Cinn beat (especially twice) win on Sunday they could overcome the Pats and be the #3 seed, leaving the PAts as #4 and having to play the JETS.....
Jeez, talk about pedantic.
The chances of all 10 games going the Bengals way are about as good as there being two ties in the AFC on Sunday. And if anyone were to work through all these variables and how they impact each team, the games would be over by the time you were done.
So, at the outset, I said i wouldn't consider it. If it were a one or two game difference in strength of victory, then maybe.
Jeez.
They don't need ten games to go their way, only two. If the Browns win and the Steelers win, they pick up the 4 points to match the Patriots in strength of victory, since they beat each of those teams twice.
At that point, it becomes a crap shoot with the net results of the rest of the games deciding it. It's not pedantic because it's not a minute detail, it's the tiebreaker that will likely come into play.
Oh well, I read the other thread where people said the Patriots had a much bigger lead. If it's only 2 then that changes a lot.
But, we're also understanding strength of victory differently. isn't it the won-loss record of the teams you beat?
If so, Cleve isn't going to add much at all.
Oh well, I read the other thread where people said the Patriots had a much bigger lead. If it's only 2 then that changes a lot.
But, we're also understanding strength of victory differently. isn't it the won-loss record of the teams you beat?
If so, Cleve isn't going to add much at all.
Strength of victory is calculated by adding up all the victories of the teams that you've beaten. In the Patriots case, they have beaten Buffalo twice ( count as 2), Miami, NYJ, Car, TB, Balt,Tenn,Atl, JAX. total wins of those teams is 65.
Compare that to Cinn who beat every team in their division twice, Chi, GB, Det and KC. total wins of those teams is 61 ( it went up by 1 after Chi won on Mon night). That 4 point differential is minimal in the scheme of things.
Actually a victory by Cleveland brings Cinn two points closer since they beat them twice.
As I said earlier, victories by Pitt and Clev put the teams in a dead heat so it's not so arcane and it's possible that they end up in a tie going to the next tiebreaker which is net point differential which the Pats win by an unsurmountable amount.
Hope this clears things up a bit.
True, the Jets win outright, but the Broncos also win over the Ravens. The purpose of the tiebreaker is to eliminate - in this case to get 3 teams down to two. I don't know why they would go to the next tiebreaker when the Ravens are last with common opponents. The "tie" is already broken at that point.
Wouldn't they only go to the next tiebreaker if the Broncos and Ravens had the same common opponents record; i.e., tied and in need of another level of tiebreaker?