idle thoughts....

[patfanken]

.... prior to the Giants game. It will be a short one since I only have about 15 minutes. I hope this doesn't disappoint.

1. Adding to the list of reasons why, IF the Pats go 19-0 it will dwarf what the Dolphins did.

a. If Cleveland wins its last game, the Pats would have to beat 9 teams that had 10 wins or more to win the superbowl. In 1972 the Dolphins only beat ONE team that had 10 wins or more.

b. If Cleveland and Washington make the Playoffs, the Pats would have beaten SEVEN playoff teams during the season. The Dolphins didn't beat a playoff team their entire season (IIRC)

c. The season is longer, harder, more competitive. Injuries play a much bigger factor since the game is played by faster, stronger, bigger players.

2. Speaking of injuries the Pats have been pretty lucky with thier top skill players, they haven't gone unscathed either. I don't think the media treats the Pats the same way they do the Colts since the Pats don't EVER play the injury card. For example, no Colts story goes by without some mention of Dwight Freeney's loss, yet the losing RColvin is rarely mentioned, despite the fact that Colvin had more sacks, tackles, picks, fumble recoveries, forced fumbles and TDs than Freeney.

Also little was made about the several times the Pats were without 2 or more of their OL/TE combinations. Those are not insignificant losses on most teams. Steven Neal is close to a probowl talent and the Pats have been without him for most of this season. BTW- This is one of the reasons I feel the Pats have not gone to the running game until now. Hockstein is a reliable pass defender, but just a JAG when it comes to the running game.

3. I have to sympathize with Channel 5. I think they are gettnig screwed financially if Channels 4 and 7 also can broadcast the game in the greater Boston area. I have to think they have a case for damages.

4. While everyone carps about how the Colts can come to NE and beat the Pats, I don't buy it. for the following reasons

a. The Colts cannot generate the same kind of pass rush in the cold as what they do in the dome.
b. it will be worse when they don't have their top threat (Freeney).
c. If Brady has time he will tear up the colts secondary.
d. The talking heads keep talking about how manning has come into NE and beat the Pats before. None mention that thaos were all warm weather games in good conditions.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

.... prior to the Giants game. It will be a short one since I only have about 15 minutes. I hope this doesn't disappoint.

1. Adding to the list of reasons why, IF the Pats go 19-0 it will dwarf what the Dolphins did.

a. If Cleveland wins its last game, the Pats would have to beat 9 teams that had 10 wins or more to win the superbowl. In 1972 the Dolphins only beat ONE team that had 10 wins or more.

b. If Cleveland and Washington make the Playoffs, the Pats would have beaten SEVEN playoff teams during the season. The Dolphins didn't beat a playoff team their entire season (IIRC)



Also .

Point B is very valid but to be clear, 10 wins in a 14 game season is more meaningful than 10 wins in a 16 game season.
10-4 is .714 and correlates to 11.4 wins. It's still pretty impressive that the Pats beat Dallas, Pitt, Indy and SD, all 11 or 11+ win teams (if SD wins)

 

[ALP]

about the TV channel point....

why not have cbs and abc show the game everywhere BUT where it is being shown by a local channel?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

....
4. While everyone carps about how the Colts can come to NE and beat the Pats, I don't buy it. for the following reasons

a. The Colts cannot generate the same kind of pass rush in the cold as what they do in the dome.
b. it will be worse when they don't have their top threat (Freeney).
c. If Brady has time he will tear up the colts secondary.
d. The talking heads keep talking about how manning has come into NE and beat the Pats before. None mention that thaos were all warm weather games in good conditions.

Plus those previous games had no Seymour, had duane starkes

I could see the Pats doing no huddle and just wear down their pass rush big time.

 

[FibSeq13478]

1. Adding to the list of reasons why, IF the Pats go 19-0 it will dwarf what the Dolphins did.

a. If Cleveland wins its last game, the Pats would have to beat 9 teams that had 10 wins or more to win the superbowl. In 1972 the Dolphins only beat ONE team that had 10 wins or more.

This stat sounds very impressive but is not a fair comparison due to the fact that they only played 14 games in the '72 season so 2 less chances for teams to get to 10 wins.

4. While everyone carps about how the Colts can come to NE and beat the Pats, I don't buy it. for the following reasons

a. The Colts cannot generate the same kind of pass rush in the cold as what they do in the dome.
b. it will be worse when they don't have their top threat (Freeney).

You forgot to mention their real top threat that will be missing- (allegedly pumped in) crowd noise in the dome.

 

[shmessy]

about the TV channel point....

why not have cbs and abc show the game everywhere BUT where it is being shown by a local channel?

Exactly. THAT'S my first thought on the matter. Why can't that be done? It would satisfy all parties. (except channels 4 and 7, but they didn't have it to begin with).

 

[patfanken]

This stat sounds very impressive but is not a fair comparison due to the fact that they only played 14 games in the '72 season so 2 less chances for teams to get to 10 wins.



You forgot to mention their real top threat that will be missing- (allegedly pumped in) crowd noise in the dome.

That is an excellent point that I missed because I was so rushed. One of the reasons the Colt rush is so effective at home is that offensive teams have to go with silent counts which effectively neutralized the advantage offense have by knowing the snap count. When the Colts play on the road they lose that advantage.

I'm guessing here but I bet if you checked the amount of points and yds the colts defense allows on the road is significantly higher than that which they allow at home

 

[mosi]

Point B is very valid but to be clear, 10 wins in a 14 game season is more meaningful than 10 wins in a 16 game season.
10-4 is .714 and correlates to 11.4 wins. It's still pretty impressive that the Pats beat Dallas, Pitt, Indy and SD, all 11 or 11+ win teams (if SD wins)

Yes, but in the regular season the only teams with winning records were the Giants and the Chiefs, who both finished 8-6. In the playoffs the Phins beat the 10-4 Browns and the 11-3 Steelers.

Personally, going undefeated now is much more impressive. The league is much better. The people are so much better. The talent level is more equal. It is not even an argument.

 

[Oswlek]

That is an excellent point that I missed because I was so rushed. One of the reasons the Colt rush is so effective at home is that offensive teams have to go with silent counts which effectively neutralized the advantage offense have by knowing the snap count. When the Colts play on the road they lose that advantage.

I'm guessing here but I bet if you checked the amount of points and yds the colts defense allows on the road is significantly higher than that which they allow at home

Indy Season Averages

Yards Allowed - 274.6
Points Allowed - 16.4

Indy Road Averages

Yards Allowed - 257
Points Allowed - 16

Now, that said, Indy did have some serious advantages in a few games. In the Jax road game, Garrard was knocked out early and Gray played probably the worst QB'ed game I have seen in years. Houston faced them without their top WR or top 2 RBs. Carolina was Vinny's second start with the team. They have also played some dreadful offenses. Outside of their division they have played Carolina, SD, Atlanta, Baltimore and Oakland on the road. Not exactly murdereds row.

In fairness to Indy, SD's points were almost all on special teams as their offense did nothing and Balitmore put a 20 spot up there with OK yardage (243) all of which came when the game was out of reach. This does balance off some of the prior paragraph.

All in all, there is little to indicate that Indy's defense performs any worse on the road than they do at home.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Exactly. THAT'S my first thought on the matter. Why can't that be done? It would satisfy all parties. (except channels 4 and 7, but they didn't have it to begin with).

That was my first thought too, so it must be too simple...

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

4. While everyone carps about how the Colts can come to NE and beat the Pats, I don't buy it. for the following reasons

a. The Colts cannot generate the same kind of pass rush in the cold as what they do in the dome.
b. it will be worse when they don't have their top threat (Freeney).
c. If Brady has time he will tear up the colts secondary.

These three points are all intertwined and are the reason why Indy is in trouble in a late January Foxboro visit. In November, the Colts threw the Pats off with their four-man rush. No Freeney means the Pats will handle that front-four rush better and if Indy wants to bring more pressure, they'll have to blitz. Brady will kill them if they blitz. If they don't bring pressure, Brady will still kill them.

d. The talking heads keep talking about how manning has come into NE and beat the Pats before. None mention that thaos were all warm weather games in good conditions.

Manning has beaten the Pats the last 3 times in Foxboro. The 2005 game was against a Pats D playing absolutely horrid football. (Duane Starks? Asante who hadn't developed into the star he is today? No Rodney? Please.) The 2006 regular season game was a decent matchup with a Pats D playing very well, but Rodney got hurt on the 3rd play of the game and I'm sure threw a wrench in their defensive gameplan. On offense, the Pats were nowhere as talented as they are now and even then they turned the ball over four times in a one-touchdown game, the final time in which Faulk let an easy catch bounce off his hands right to Cato June to clinch it for Indy. The third time was the AFCCG and we all know the defensive personnel in the 2nd half of that game was a shell of what they put on the field now; And again that offense is nowhere near as good as it is now. Notice I didn't even mention the cold factor which you pointed out.

I hate when the talking heads infer that since the Colts won the last 3 games (two in Foxboro), it's no big deal if they do it again. Way to ignore all the other mitigating factors.

Regards,
Chris