Idle thoughts...

[PatsWickedPissah]

What????? He's the surest tackler of the three.

Ellis Hobbs has already amassed a half season highlight tape of himself getting stiff armed into sideline photographers.

Yes, Hobbsie has been stiffed as late but watch Gay's takedowns, except against Dallas where he done good.

 

[IndianPat]

Contain Dallas Clark and we will have this game won. This game is critically dependent on our Defense coming up big. My own feeling is that Addai will not matter. He will get an occasional first down on his own. Manning is the one that needs to be stopped on third downs for our defense to get off the field. Take Clark away and you can force them to punt or kick field goals, more often than not.

Indy's defense is good, probably the best we have faced so far. That said, I think we will have atleast 5 to 7 scoring drives. If they gave up 30 plus points to our offense in the AFCG, I dont see how we couldnt get more.

Special Teams : I see Ellis Hobbs coming up huge. I think you can expect an avg. kickoff return of 35 yds from him.

Go Pats.

 

[emoney_33]

Re: Idle thoughts....

That brings up another possible discussion of who is going to cover Reggie Wayne. In the past its been Hobbs, because Harrison always lines up on the left and the Pats don't switch CB's sides.

With Harrison diminished by age and injuries, isn't Wayne the more dangerous threat. Thus shouldn't we be putting our best CB on their most dangerous threat?

Mostly good points, however...

I'm pretty sure I saw Hobbs and Samuel switch sides in the Bengals game when CJ switched sides. (I believe Hobbs had him most of the game). I also believe Hobbs is our best cover corner so I like him on Wayne. I just hope the league doesn't have to give Hobbs another apology after a bad PI call...

 

[emoney_33]

Re: Idle thoughts....

Thats an interesting thought. Regardless though I'd like to see Hobbs play with more aggressiveness and closer to the WRs, especially if he has safety help over the top.

He's been getting killed in the media for playing to far off the ball. However I don't know if that's his fault or by design. All I know is last year he had a very good game IMHO

It has to be by design. He was all over CJ in the Bengals game when they had him double teamed. Bumping him off the line, with him tight all the way.

 

[mgcolby]

How do you know? YOu have an inside track to the gambling world to know that "bookies" are losing money? The spreads aren't static, they widen. If "bookies" aren't getting the same amount of money, the spread widens until they are. How about NE - 50 this week? Still think money would come in on NE? No? All on the Colts, OK NE -20, how now?

See how that works? You say you do, but I don't think so.

http://www.sports.com/vegaslines/lines_nfl.html

You can find how much money is on each team. The bookies try to get even money but it doesn't always work. Now you would be foolish to think they "always" want even money, Vegas will occasionally put out lines hoping to "fool" the public into betting on the team that Vegas thinks will lose.

One other thing they don't always adjust the spread, they will adjust the juice just as well.

 

[BelichickFan]

Now you would be foolish to think they "always" want even money, Vegas will occasionally put out lines hoping to "fool" the public into betting on the team that Vegas thinks will lose.

One of my best friends is "in the business" (or was, anyway) and you are right. The line about wanting 50-50 money is often true but sometimes not. If they can get a straight win with more money on the losing side, there's a LOT more money in it this way.

 

[mgcolby]

One of my best friends is "in the business" (or was, anyway) and you are right. The line about wanting 50-50 money is often true but sometimes not. If they can get a straight win with more money on the losing side, there's a LOT more money in it this way.

Exactly because when that happens they aren't just collecting the juice.

 

[maverick4]

PatFanKen is becoming my favorite poster here.
The guy writes an article every time he posts, he truly earns each one of his post counts!

 

[reflexblue]

Re: Idle thoughts....

2. I saw another replay of the 2006 Championship game last night. It wasn't any less painful than the first time. There were just so many plays that 2nd half, that if ANY ONE of them had turned out differently, so would have the outcome. Very frustrating to say the least.

However the overall positive thing that I can take from that game is this. We went into that game with SO MANY things going against us. Injuries before and DURING the game. The tough travel schedule, the flu, the physical game against SD, substandard WRs, playing away, etc, etc, etc....YET we were STILL led that game for 59 minutes.

2b Playing games against The Jaguars, Titans, Jets,and Bolts in succesion didn't help. By the time we got to the colts we were pretty beat up.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Idle thoughts....

2b Playing games against The Jaguars, Titans, Jets,and Bolts in succesion didn't help. By the time we got to the colts we were pretty beat up.

Don't forget that all but The Jest were on the road too. Not an excuse, just the way it was.

 

[ATippett56]

1. I'm disappointed, though not surprised that the media has made such a big deal about the "running up the score" issue. Lets be clear this issue is ENTIRELY media driven.

This topic has been beaten to death on this message board and there is no need to rehash the subject matter.

2. I saw another replay of the 2006 Championship game last night. It wasn't any less painful than the first time. There were just so many plays that 2nd half, that if ANY ONE of them had turned out differently, so would have the outcome. Very frustrating to say the least.

However the overall positive thing that I can take from that game is this. We went into that game with SO MANY things going against us. Injuries before and DURING the game. YET we were STILL led that game for 59 minutes.

This year our entire line up is SO much improved on both offense AND defense. (and I won't be redundant and point out the places. We all know where they are) We are relatively healthy, relatively rested, and well prepared to avenge that defeat this Sunday.

Please remember that the Patriots running backs were all banged up by the start of the fourth quarter and the Patriots had to rely on Heath Evans. With Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk healthy, the Patriots offense is once again balanced. To expand on this topic, Josh McDaniels must keep the Patriots offense balanced throughout the game in order to keep the Colts defense guessing. In my opinion, this was a tactical mistake by Josh McDaniels in the second half of the 2006 AFC Championship Game. The Colts defense can be run on, as was the case with the Denver Broncos offense earlier this season. I expect the Patriots offense in the double tight end formation (if Kyle Brady and Ben Watson are healthy) more often in this game than against the Washington Redskins. From the double tight end formation, the play action pass will be a deadly tactic if Colts safety Bob Sanders cheats towards the line of scrimmage to assist in run defense.

3. I know that the Colts are ALSO improved on defense, but they are not the same team on offense as last year. Its close, but Harrison isn't the same player he was in his prime, even if he wasn't hurt....and he is. The OL is banged up some and is younger and less experienced.

On defense I think they present a similar challenge as the Skins if you want to know the truth. The Skins actually have a better secondary than the Colts, at least talent wise, and the Skins are also comparable in that they had a smaller quick DL with 2 legitimate outside Pass rushers, just like the Colts.

Perhaps a better parallel to the Colts DL is the Chargers (even tough they play a 3-4) That similarity is best exemplified by the strong 2 outside rushers. The Colts have Mathis and Freeney, the Chargers had Phillips and Merriman.

BOTTOM LINE: I don't see the Colts pass rush having any more success at harassing or impeding Brady than any other team we've faced, especially the 3 I mentioned (all of whom had their moments, but that all they were...moments).

Is the Colts defense improved from last year or is that Bob Sanders has not missed as many games this season? Also, the offenses the Colts defense has faced this season have not been impressive whatsoever. The best wide receivers from the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos did not play against the Colts defense while the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were missing their top two running backs. In essentially two games, the Colts defense faced a lousy backup quarterback for the Jaguars and the third string quarterback for the Panthers. None of the offenses the Colts defense has faced this season can be even considered explosive, let alone balanced.

4. As to the secondary. I have been VERY impressed with the Colt secondary. They play with a physicalness and attitude that we have never seen before in an INDY team. In fact the entire defense plays more physical and with a 'bad' attidute on defense. However this Colts secondary is no more impressive than the one the Skins presented to us. Sanders is perhaps the top S in the league, but he isn't better than the talent that BOTH Landry and Taylor brought. Those CBs are good as well but they aren't all pros yet either. And its not those front 4 guys that will have to match up with us, its the nickel and dime guys too and they are the ones who will present the greatest mismatches to us

BOTTOM LINE: Since I don't believe that Brady will have any less time than he's had in the past (or much less time, because being in a dome gives the opposition DL a distinct advantage getting off the ball), AND I don't believe that the Colts secondary is significantly better than what we've seen already, the Pats will move the ball as well as they have at any time this season. IMHO the only chance the Colts have in holding the score down, is making all those successful drives into the Colts redzone turn into FGs rather than TDs.

Neither cornerback for the Colts has elite speed. The 40 yard combine times for Marlin Jackson was 4.52 sec and Kelvin Hayden was 4.48 sec. Neither cornerback can play man-to-man coverage versus Dante Stallworth and Randy Moss for any length of time. I expect the Colts defense to play cover two or cover three for the vast majority of the game.

5. Now on the defense the situation looks even better...if you can believe that. Think about it. We all forget that although the defense failed miserably in the 2nd half of that game, it did an excellent job THROUGHOUT the first half. They just ran out of players and gas in the second half.

We not only have a deep and much more experienced and talented Safety situation, we are much improved at LB both in talent and experience with both Thomas and Seau available.

Finally, as Pats fans we sometimes have a tendency to forget how critical the extraordinary play of Peyton Manning that half was to the success of the comeback. He was litterally flawless that second half. It was the best half of his career. And for that reason it is reasonable to assume that while we will see a very good QB who will have a very good game this week, it won't be his best game, and that is what it took to beat us last season....barely.

Obviously injuries doomed the Patriots defense in the second half of the 2006 AFC Championship Game. However, the Patriots must rotate defensive lineman from series to series in order to keep them fresh throughout the game. The Colts offense is not as explosive with the loss of left offensive tackle Tarik Glenn. Richard Seymour and Rosevelt Colvin must exploit rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh in this matchup to create pressure on Peyton Manning from the blindside.

6. Special teams - Neither team will punt more that 2-3 times this game, but they WILL KO several times and in that area the Pats have a clear advantage, and it will matter this game.

The kickoff and punt coverage teams for the Colts are lousy.

7. Here is how I basically see it working out. The Colts are skillfull enough on offense to move the ball against the Pats. Good enough to see them have 5 scoring drives this game. Unfortunately for them, I only see them getting into the endzone twice, so their score will be 23.

On the other hand I see the Pats having 7 scoring drives and getting into the endzone at least 3 times so I see a bottom line score of 33-40 points. So the Pats will cover again.

The Colts offense can still exploit the Patriots defense with the mismatch of cornerback Ellis Hobbs on wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark roaming the Patriots defensive secondary. I do not expect the Patriots cornerbacks to flip sides. The key for the Patriots defense will be to slow down Joseph Addai in the running game as well as in the passing game. With that stated, I expect a high scoring game. However at the end of the day, the Patriots offense will expose the Colts defense for what it is ...... a bunch of frauds.

8. I think I am among the minority who are desperately hoping that the Pats WON'T win the toss on Sunday. I want them to have the second half kick off. By then they will know exactly what to expect from the Colts, and the defense won't be tired to start the 2nd half.

One of the reasons I think added to the Pats 2nd half collapse was the fact the Defense was on the field for a long Colt drive at the end of the first half, and the Colts got the opening kick off and preceded to have ANOTHER long drive for a TD. Then the Pats went 3 and out and the Colts then had ANOTHER long drive, and by then the Pats defense was toast.

It would be nice if the Patriots defense could set the tone early, as was the case against the Dallas Cowboys.

Prediction:
Patriots 38
Colts 27

 

[Brady to Brown]

I enjoy your posts Ken. You need to quit your day job and write here full time.

The Media are doing what they can to take down the Pats. They remind me of Jets fans.

 

[smg93]

Nice job again ken. Your point about the Pats beating the spread every game this season has in some way allowed me to connect two very far off dots. The first is all these articles about running up the score and the second is the imbalance beating the spread all the time creates in the major bookies of this country who are likely mob related....

Yes, they are a bit far fetched mainly because I don't have any proof, but damn, it's a pretty interesting theory if I may say so myself

 

[sebman2112]

Re: Idle thoughts....

11. Am I the only one who is noticing that Randal Gay is quitely having a very good season. He has been a great nickel back and is tackling very well. He might be our second best CB.

Gay isn't the Patriots second best CB, sorry.

 

[Slagathor]

With regards to the Indy Defense, the one thing that scares me is their speed.

Watching the Carolina game, they are fast and they all go to the ball.

If you look at their schedule, they have not played a complete offensive team.

Every team has been severley deficient in either the run or the pass.

In our case. Stopping Addai is the key.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

With regards to the Indy Defense, the one thing that scares me is their speed.

Watching the Carolina game, they are fast and they all go to the ball.

If you look at their schedule, they have not played a complete offensive team.

Every team has been severley deficient in either the run or the pass.

In our case. Stopping Addai is the key.

I agree about their speed and pursuit, but we all know that BB has plays specifically designed to exploit defenses that over pursue.

I also agree that we must stop Addai who not only can run but is an excellent outlet receiver. With the Colts' multi-dimensional O, the Pats D will have their hands full, I mean I HOPE they will have their 'hands full' Sunday.

 

[patsox23]

Belichick is trying to earn back that 500K by betting on the Patriots to cover every week. He's very shrewd.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[cstjohn17]

Here is how I basically see it working out. The Colts are skillfull enough on offense to move the ball against the Pats. Good enough to see them have 5 scoring drives this game. Unfortunately for them, I only see them getting into the endzone twice, so their score will be 23.

On the other hand I see the Pats having 7 scoring drives and getting into the endzone at least 3 times so I see a bottom line score of 33-40 points. So the Pats will cover again. I can't wait to see what the spread is against our next opponent.

Drive Chart Championship
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/drive...yPage=tab_drive_chart&season=2006&week=POST20

25 Possessions total
- Patriots had 12*
- one possession was at end of 1st half for 7 seconds, one was at end of game for 44 seconds
- Colts had 13*
- one was for the kneel at end of game
9 Punts in total

Interesting if the Pats ran the ball all 3 downs and then punted it would take about 2:30 seconds off the clock. In the second half their longest drive was 2:44. They had a brutal 12:31 time of possession in the 2nd half.

Lets say 22 'real' possessions, I expect 6 punts in total. Leaving 16 possessions, one turnover per team leaves 14 scoring drives.

This is such a thin margin, if each team scores 7 times. It could look like.
TD, TD, TD, TD, FG, FG, FG = 37
TD, TD, TD, FG, FG, FG, FG = 33

The margin is very thin, razor thin.

As far as the actual game. I think it is important for both teams to run up the number of offensive plays, kind of like a pitch count. When a defense hits 50+ plays they become extremely ineffective leading to a lot of 4th quarter points. Brady will have to be on top of his game, the Colts will allow the stuff underneath while minimizing the deep play. If Sanders can be lured into the box (see effective running game) there should be an opportunity over the top.

On defense I expect a lot of different looks with more of a nickel or heavy nickel emphasis. The Patriots will also blitz more than people expect to take advantage of the LT.

It should be a classic, I don't think it is as big of a slam dunk as people expect. In the end Brady is just too relentless and the Pats win 34-31 in OT.

 

[TBonePatsFan]

Re: Idle thoughts....

Man, have I missed you.

I was thinking the same thing! You are by far my favorite poster, and while I don't post often, I am on here daily.

I look forward to your weekly "columns" and still find myself looking for your post on Monday or Tuesday.

Don't be a stranger.