Idle thoughts - the you can't win edition.

[Bill Lee]

You mirrored a lot of my thoughts.

Fitzpatrick played his best game of the year. He threw one pass after another into minute holes and when he didn't, he wisely checked down to receivers he'd rarely targeted before this game. The pass defense is going to take a lot of heat this week for allowing Fitzpatrick (with the lowest QB rating in the league) 280 yds and 2 TD's. When the reality is that Fitzpatrick's achilles heal is his inconsistency. By definition while he is capable of playing badly, he is also capable of playing well. Well tonight the pride of Harvard played well....very well. And the fact he did shouldn't demean the efforts of a much maligned defense. Just something to think about.

Yep, that's the thing about Fitz. He has some games where he hits almost every throw, then he has other games like that critical BUF-NYJ game last season where he throws three picks. We get to face the Jets once more in Week 16. I hope we get the down Fitz rather than the up Fitz.

BTW- the good news that the Jets STILL lost and because he played so well it is unlikely that Bowles will be able to take him out of the line up, which means that it will delay any info they get on Petty and his other guy, and thus set the Jets' QB problems back a few more months.

It's looking like another lost season for the NYJ. We didn't see any Wentz or Prescott like flashes from Petty when he started in LA. While the vets want Fitz in there to give them some hope, the reality is they are better off figuring out what they have with Petty and/or Hackenburg. The fact we don't see them getting more time probably means the coaches don't like what they see in practice from either of them.

BTW- anyone else notice that all or most of Gotskowski's FG misses this season have come from the right hash? There have be 4 now. There isn't going to be anything done about this situation. Gotskowski clearly has not had a good year, but it hasn't been horrible. Though the game would have been a lot less nerve wracking if he'd made that kick.

Yes, that was the main thought repeating through my head in the 4th quarter. There's a big difference between a 5 point lead and an 8 point lead. Every kick is an adventure, especially the ones you think he should make.

d. With BOTH Gronk and Marty banged up, wouldn't AJ Derby be nice right now (he said with perfect 20-20 hindsight)

Yep, Derby was my pre-season binky. I was sad to see him go to the hated Donkeys.

 

[Sicilian]

Yes, that was the main thought repeating through my head in the 4th quarter. There's a big difference between a 5 point lead and an 8 point lead. Every kick is an adventure, especially the ones you think he should make.

Not only that, but with the FG we wouldn't have gone for two at the end, so likely (even with Gost's struggles) would have been up 9, which is basically game over.

 

[VrabelJr]

I think I'm done reading these until you grow up and stop hating on James White. He's broken a lot of tackles and gained almost all of his yards after the catch.

How can I trust your analysis is worth salt when you're wrong about James White week after week?

PS: Lewis is not faster than White. Lewis is just better at changing directions, which we didn't need on the two point conversion attempt.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Disagree about W vs L in that L is quicker and more instinctive runner. Woulda gotten the ball across the goal line. All said White has been and is a valuable member of this season's 46.

 

[Sicilian]

2. RB's - I know White broke a tackle (finally) today on a key 3rd down, and was once again an effective receiver out of the backfield, but for the life of me I couldn't understand why Lewis was not the RB on that 2 point conversion. He is not only the better runner, he is also faster, and more instinctive RB than White. There is no doubt in my mind that had Lewis been the ball carrier on that play, it would have succeeded.

On this point, I don't think the problem there was that James White wasn't fast enough, shifty enough, or smart enough... I thought the problem was that Solder was out in front and basically whiffed on the block that would have made it a walk in. I know I'm probably asking too much of a guy his size, but that was the whole design of the play. He gets even a half more hand on the defender and any one of us could have walked that in too.

 

[borg]

A little context regarding NE's defensive play this year:

NE has played 6 of the 11 worst offenses in the NFL using PPG (points per game).
NE has played 8 of the 16 worst offenses in the NFL.
NE played top 12 offense Pittsburg without their starting QB
NE is 1-1 verses top 6 offense Buffalo (no Brady for 1 game)

Looking forward:

NE will play 3 more games vs bottom 9 offenses
NE will play 4 more games vs bottom 16 offenses
NE will play 1 game vs 17th worst offense in scoring TDs (Denver)

Conclusion:
I take NE's low defensive PPG rank (2nd) with a grain of salt.

Good news for NE:

Competent offenses in AFC may not qualify for playoffs....Buffalo, Tennessee, Pitt.
Dangerous AFC West teams will canibalize each other going down the stretch likely eliminating quality opponents and allowing NE to secure #1 seed.
Oakland's defense is wretched

In the NFC.....it's Dallas with Seattle as the bridesmaid. Both would be formidable opponents for NE. And since defense usually dominates in the playoffs...I worry about Seattle's defense and the team's familiarity playing NE somewhat more than Dallas and their rookie offensive stars and puppet coach.

 

[sambam94]

horrible clock management at the end of the half, not sure if that was on Brady or BB, but you don'y normally see that by the Pats.
BB not accepting the holding call and giving the jets a chance at a FG rather than a 3rd and 18 was
ridiculous.

 

[Sicilian]

horrible clock management at the end of the half, not sure if that was on Brady or BB, but you don'y normally see that by the Pats.
BB not accepting the holding call and giving the jets a chance at a FG rather than a 3rd and 18 was
ridiculous.

I was okay with allowing the FG attempt because it resulted in a 50+ yard FG, and if I heard correctly Folk hadn't hit one of those all year. So he hit it, props to him, but I'm okay with them thinking it was a good risk, especially since we saw a later 50 yard attempt blocked.

 

[ivanvamp]

The skill position talent on this team is as good as I can ever remember it being, all things considered.

WR
- Edelman: absolutely solid and can run every route
- Hogan: good deep ball, bigger than Edelman
- Amendola: doesn't put up big numbers but is very reliable
- Mitchell: emerging as a potential stud

TE
- Gronk: best of all time
- Bennett: one tough SOB, and big and skilled

RB
- Blount: the hammer, playing great this season
- White: emerging talent in the run and pass game
- Lewis: absolutely dynamic athlete who makes people miss

Yesterday they were without Gronk and Bennett for a while, and so what did they do? 3 wide, with White and Lewis in the backfield. Tough for any team to cover all that. The Patriots can play any way offensively - they can hammer you on the ground with Blount. They can go deep with Hogan and Gronk. They can kill you with underneath stuff. They can throw outside and between the numbers. They can get great one-on-one matchups with their RBs. As long as the OL does its job, the Pats will put up big numbers.

 

[363839]

Excellent post as usual, Ken. Only one point of contention I would have.
That is with point 7.b. Maybe I'm mistaken but I always thought Willie McGinist was a great pass rusher.
Maybe he didn't get record sacks but he always seemed to be in a QB's grill. Don't believe me? Just look at that pic on front page of SI that following month to SB XXXVI. He also held the record for play off sacks.

 

[ivanvamp]

BTW, for those lamenting our "bad" defense, did you watch Denver's D give up 20+ to Kansas City including letting them drive down to first and goal with a minute's worth of time in OT? Did you watch Seattle get their azzes handed to them by Tampa?

Even great defenses give up scores and can be beaten.

Great point. For what it's worth, the Patriots have given up more than 17 points just 4 times all season long. Seattle has given up more than 17 points 4 times as well. Denver has given up more than 17 points 8 times this year. 8 out of 11 games.

I'd still prefer those defenses over New England's. The point is simply that even elite defenses in the NFL now have games where they give up points. And for all the hand-wringing over the Pats' defense yesterday, they only allowed 17 points on the road.

 

[tombonneau]

horrible clock management at the end of the half, not sure if that was on Brady or BB, but you used to normally not see that by the Pats but seems to happen way too frequently now at the end of the first half.

Fixed that for you.

 

[tasmlab]

Brady relies on great mechanics to generate power and accuracy. His knee was affecting his throwing and balls were going high.

This is a great observation.

If the Rams are into hurting people, and Brady is still healing, could BB give Jimmy some snaps next game?

 

[aluminum seats]

This is a great observation.

If the Rams are into hurting people, and Brady is still healing, could BB give Jimmy some snaps next game?

Unfortunately, part of the QB position is teams don't do the "some snaps" thing. If it was another position, Brady would take a game or 2 and get healthy, but it won't happen.

 

[patsfan13]

Brady is going for the all QB wins record in 30 fewer games than Manning), don't think BB is unaware of this, though he won't risk an injury, Brady will play.

SO the jump cut Lewis made yesterday against the Jets, was reminiscent of Barry Sanders. Barry didn't have overwhelming straight line speed (check his combine 40 time) but had great change of direction and 'game speed'. Lewis is an injury prone poor man Barry Sanders. Bring his along slowly he is a game changer in the playoffs with the cold weather. I would love to see him healthy in the playoffs.

I loved Mitchell's comments after the game where he took ownership for missing a tough catch in the end zone rather than taking credit for the game winning TD catch.

 

[BlueThunder]

Mitchell is drinking the Patriot kool aid......another player that has bought into the Patriot Way....

It will be exciting to watch him grow as a player in this offense......

 

[SlowGettingUp]

So Brady claims his knee wasn't the problem with his missed throws:

Brady also wouldn’t say the injury affected his performance.

“I wouldn’t say that,” Brady said when asked if his knee was a factor in missing passes early in the game. “I watched the film last night and I thought I was impatient early in the game. Just trying to get the ball out of my hand, trying to force things to develop, and then also I missed some balls on some overthrows. We were close on some others … We’re not missing by four yards, we’re just slightly missing a few of those and could have been a little different for the way we felt about the game, but all in all, it was a dogfight. It always seems to be that way down there for some reason.”
​

I really don't understand his long fade-route attempts on third down. Those are low-probability throws at the best of times and here he wasn't at his best. Not saying you don't want to throw a couple of those a game, if only to keep the defense from flooding the short and middle throws, but at least do them on first or second down so you don't kill the drive if they fail.

​

 

[Bill Lee]

Not only that, but with the FG we wouldn't have gone for two at the end, so likely (even with Gost's struggles) would have been up 9, which is basically game over.

Good point. Also hitting the FG would mean we'd go in at half up 13-10 instead of the 10-10 tie. It really was an important play in the game.

Mitchell: emerging as a potential stud

He got hit in the hands and didn't make the catch twice, but admittedly they were difficult plays. Hopefully he can make a few of those in the future, but it's nice to see someone with his speed making a positive impact.

 

[Buchanty]

On point 7: Was I the only one that thought the Enunwa TD was incorrectly reversed. I was positive that his right elbow hit out of bounds at the same time as his butt landed in bounds. Physically when you fall backwards you use your elbows, when you can, to cushion the fall. Yes he had a ball in this hands that restricted their use somewhat, but he landed more on his right side, emphasizing the likelihood of elbow grounding at same time as backside. Even if the film was inconclusive on that point, it should have raised enough uncertainty to declare insufficient evidence to overturn the play.

I am less convinced but still in slight doubt about the overturn of White's 2-pt conversion as it appeared that his foot hit out of bounds at the same time as the nose of the ball penetrated the end-zone line. Again it was hard to tell for sure since the angle is from above rather than side, so knowing when the foot stepped out is hard to determine. Again I am tempted to suggest that here again there was insufficient evidence to overturn the call, though less so than in the previous case.

Still we won, and I should reserve my complaints for more egregious calls. I would like to celebrate, however, the return of the takeaway. Great plays by both Butler and Long, and a welcome break of an unwanted streak.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

On point 7: Was I the only one that thought the Enunwa TD was incorrectly reversed. I was positive that his right elbow hit out of bounds at the same time as his butt landed in bounds. Physically when you fall backwards you use your elbows, when you can, to cushion the fall. Yes he had a ball in this hands that restricted their use somewhat, but he landed more on his right side, emphasizing the likelihood of elbow grounding at same time as backside. Even if the film was inconclusive on that point, it should have raised enough uncertainty to declare insufficient evidence to overturn the play.

I am less convinced but still in slight doubt about the overturn of White's 2-pt conversion as it appeared that his foot hit out of bounds at the same time as the nose of the ball penetrated the end-zone line. Again it was hard to tell for sure since the angle is from above rather than side, so knowing when the foot stepped out is hard to determine. Again I am tempted to suggest that here again there was insufficient evidence to overturn the call, though less so than in the previous case.

Still we won, and I should reserve my complaints for more egregious calls. I would like to celebrate, however, the return of the takeaway. Great plays by both Butler and Long, and a welcome break of an unwanted streak.

Just remember what our buddy Dean Blandino said about this just 8 days prior to the yesterday's game:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...lay-is-only-intended-to-fix-obvious-mistakes/

Here is the Enunwa TD. Keep an eye on his rear and his right elbow. Does it look clear to you that his butt hit before his elbow? It's not looking that way to me. I thought this was a poor reversal.



I was sold on the White overturn on the last replay CBS showed. I haven't been able to find that one online yet, though.