idle thoughts - the warm and fuzzy edition

[patfanken]

Love the physicality that the current secondary players bring, and I think that Gregory has been holding his own lately--much to my complaining about him at times earlier in the year.

Gregory was another example of excessive expectations. He will NEVER be a "big hitting safety like Laron Landry. He is more of a technician, who is going to be more effective than spectacular. Sort of the anti-Brandon Merriweather.

I will admit that while I do think that Wilson can become a safety of the future, I thought that his turnovers were more in the "lucky" Arrington mode of 2011. He has been in the BB doghouse, apparently his tendency to allow someone to get behind him while guarding the 5 yd line in back to back weeks did not go over well.

I'm certainly not writing off Wilson, and I look forward to him being much improved next season.

Chung is who we thought he was...as he has been delegated to a bit/role player. Finally.

Chung is the epitome of this defense. Last season when he came back he was literally the best overall DB we had at the end of the season. This season when he comes back what was our best DB last season, is now merely a decent back up. THAT is how far the depth of talent has come over the last season.

The movement of DMcC to free safety has propelled the entire secondary to better results, as safety play is so important in this league. The 'step down' from McCourty to Dennard has not been noticeable enough to warrant DMcC moving back to CB. That said, Dennard is a great surprise and has been holding his own, so everything is working cohesively back there at the moment.

I'm beginning to believe you are right. It even makes me more excited to see this secondary with Dowling back. That will give up TWO "big" CBs in the mix (assuming we resign Talib.

Kyle Arrington has looked miles apart from his earlier play, as keeping him in the slot has really played to his benefit.

this could have been Arrington's best game of the year last night. Kind of shows how the defensive secondary is maturing and the relative role of confidence in how a team plays.

Wilfolk is just a beast. You're right about that.

Amen, that's about all we can say. Almost as amazing as his level of play is his stamina. Truly amazing. However one negative about Wilfolk.....his interceptions are down this year.

Welker had a nice start, but dropped too many balls and couldn't get on the same page.

I saw only one drop. The rest IMHO, were off target throws. I think Fencer made an interesting observation in his thread that opined that Welker can be a victim of his short arms and has a smaller catch radius that makes an accurate QB a bigger need for him that most. Nothing personal in that, just a physical limitation. Bottom line, he can probably make more money somewhere else, but he isn't going to have the same kind of success he's had here with Brady. (even though I think Brady missed him a few times.

Hopefully the injuries to Dennard, Arrington, and Talib are minor as they have obvious huge importance moving forward.

Word is that both are likely to be fine for Sunday night.

I'd love to finally get that interior presence as a 3rd down rush specialist. It's a shame that both Fanane and Pryor did not work out.

I don't know who's available, but that would be my #1 priority either in the draft or FA.

Brady got knocked around waaay too much for my liking tonight, but you have to give credit to the great front line of the Texans too. Hopefully we can learn from that a bit moving forward to the SF game. It also shows how tough Brady is, as he was walking and jogging a bit gingerly and stiff at one point, and can be seen when he gets up from his slide on the scramble in the .gif on page 13 of the post-game thread (although that isn't where it happened and it was prior to that). Despite being slightly dinged up and having the usual December bumps and bruises, he still played through them as he always does. The warrior in him really comes out, and the scramble for the first down only proves that more.

Despite the one sack, that was probably the most Brady has been hit this season. But it was a strange night for the OL. In the first quarter no one got NEAR Brady. Then during that stretch in the 2nd where they couldn't move the ball, he was getting hit nearly every play. Then in the second half, it was more of a mixed bag, where Brady got his a few times, but the OL was mostly back in control. IIRC I heard the official number of hits after passing was 7. So that's 8 including the sack. That's certainly not ideal, and probably one of the reasons Brady told Young and Dilfer, he felt he left too many plays out on the field. Evidently he felt that during that dry spell he either missed open guys, didn't get to the right play or guys missed blocks. All 3 of those things happened.

 

[patfanken]

Ken,
Wanted to sing your praises but someone beat me to it and said what I think.



So I'll just say ditto that.

Thank you for the compliment and all the others who were kind to me..

One thing you can say about Ridley's fumble. It wasn't like he was careless with the ball. It was REALLY ripped out. Hard to fault him on that one. That's the kind of fumble you have to give more credit to the defense than blame to the offensive player.

Almost similar for Woody. That was more of a great play by Watt, than a bad play by Woodhead.

 

[patfanken]

More on Watt:

There was one play where he came in hard from the left straight at Brady who ended up rushing a throw for an incomplete pass. I remember thinking "How could the Pats just not assign anyone to block Watt on that play? Wasn't being aware of Watt a point of emphasis?"

Then I saw the replay and saw that the Pats DID have a blocker on Watt; Nate Solder, but watt went through him so fast and easily that on first look it appeared he was unblocked.

What an unreal player. I was a big fan of him pre-draft, but he has been even better than I imagined he could be.

That play was painful to watch, but was was impressive by Solder, was that it didn't happen again. It seems like once you beat him with something, you can't do it again. But any OLman is going to have trouble with Watt. He probably got a pressure on every Pats OLman last night. Very hard to believe that he wound up with 2 Tackles, no sacks, no deflections and no tackles for loses. It sure didn't seem like that.

 

[patfanken]

Now that the over-analyzing period has begun...

I'm a big "eye test" guy. IMO, according to the "eye test", Justin Francis has been very productive rushing the passer on a per snap basis. He looks slow off the snap, but he seems to have heavy hands and a powerful bull rush.

Last night he registered two QB hits, and disengaged from an offensive lineman with a nice spin move but the ball got out too soon. That wasn't a fluke either - in his limited time out there this season, he has gotten into the backfield. He beat Brick against the Jets once and got a licking on Sanchez, and got a lick in on Fitzpatrick as well. Also got Cordy Glenn on the ground entirely once, but the ball came out before he could charge at the QB.

Is it just me or is this kid not bad?

Hard to know exactly how Francis is doing right now. But its sure telling that HE's getting the reserve snaps at DE and not Bequette. I don't know if that's a bad thing for Bequette or a good one for Francis.

Still its hard to believe that a team with this much overall talent and still find TWO UDFA's that can make the team and still get on the playing field like Boldin and Francis. BB's really on a hot streak the last 3 years with the draft

 

[patfanken]

Great stuff, Ken.

I do have one quibble and it's about a common tendency here.

Me, I don't care what Tavon Wilson is doing right now. Based on his rep, I'm guessing he's watching and learning about safety, corner, slot just about everything.

Why don't i care? Because we're getting the best safety play in years from Gregory and McCourty. That's all I care about. If we have injuries, instead of Slater or Indigbo or something, right now we'll have Wilson and Chung available. I don't care about their careers or where they were drafted, that's their problem, or it's history's.

Like I said before, Chung might have been our best DB or at least one of the reasons the defense improved a bit last season after he came back,and now he's merely a back up. That says a lot about both our talent in the secondary and the depth we now have at S now that we moved McCourty back there and Gregory got healthy. Wilson is now the #4 guy and can wait his turn.

BTW-People forget that one of the reason's we lost that Seattle game was because by the 4th quarter of that game. Wilson and Ebner where the 2 safeties on the field.

Brace might not be the most motivated player, but we seem to have a great rotation with Love or Deaderick, depending on the scheme (great game by Deaderick last night) and Vince is playing Pro Bowl level and every snap, it seems.

Do I care about Brace? Not really. If he's not a distraction and is putting in effort in practice, who cares? We seem to have a great attitude and I doubt BB puts up with slacking, so he's not playing due to some combination of injury, or lack of minutes left from the guys that are getting it done every week.

Not its not a big thing, but I had some hope for him, but like Chung, this is likely his last season with the Pats. Clearly injuries have sabotaged his career here.

 

[patfanken]

I think other than a few bad plays/quarters that McCourty has had a great season even when the media and fans were killing him. I think he would still be the Pats' best CB if he was playing the position, but he may be more valuable at safety.

I've come to agree with you here. I still think that McCourty might still be the Pats best CB right now, but he probably IS more valuable for us a Safety.

defense has thrived on a smart and opportunistic safety who can captain the defense like Harrison did and Milloy did before him. I think a safety can be more important than a CB in this defense. I don't know if McCourty can ever come close to Harrison level, but despite my initial belief, he may be more valuable at safety than CB. SMY said today that Belichick said that he has never seen a defensive player able to break down film better than McCourty other than Ray Lewis (he might have been talking about current players).

I think you are idolizing Rodney too much here. First Rodney wasn't even close to the kind of pass defender that McCourty is right now. Secondly, I have to wonder how successful Rodney would have been in this era of virtual 7 on 7 football. Thirdly Rodney's best weapon was his mind, and to that end, while McCourty has reportedly the right work ethic and football IQ, he's still probably a few years away from reaching his true impact potential as a Safety (assuming the Pats keep him there)

Wilson has been a big disappointment after a good start. Overall though, you gotta be happy with this draft class. The Pats look to have three solid starters out of Jones, Hightower (who might have had his best game last night), and Dennard. Hopefully Wilson will come around for next year. He was a bit raw. So there is a chance.

I'm coming to the realization that I'm probably being to hard on Wilson. With McCourty's move to S and Chung and Gregory coming back from injury. Wilson is now the team's 4th safety, and how many snaps does a 4th S get? I should be happy that the team doesn't have to us a 4th rookie playing significant snaps on this young defense.

They had Jones on a pitch count. I don't know if he is 100% back and I think not letting him play every down might have affected his effectiveness.

Lets see if we see an improvement this week, You could be right. I love him as a long term player. I'm just wondering if we, like we often do, over hyped him.

 

[patfanken]

Football Outsiders commentary on the #1 and #10 ranked QB performances of the week:





Kind of says it all.

Personally I'm starting to move my MVP vote to Adrian Peterson. His run has been remarkable. Most of the mediots want to give him props because he's come back from his ACL so well. I think its more amazing that he's getting those kinds of yards while he has a QB and WR's that are below average, and everyone is loading the box knowing that he's the only team's threat.

Brady and Manning are having outstanding years and play the league's most important position, but neither is exactly doing it alone, yet AD really is all alone in his quest for 2000 yds which makes his season the most remarkable one of the year.

Personally however, if Brady was given the option of lifting a Lombardi this February, or winning another MVP, I think he'd personally deliver that MVP trophy to EITHER AD or Manning (not that he doesn't deserve it.)

 

[patfanken]

Excellent observations as usual...



It really wasn't a good call but not the worst I've seen. The DB jumped into Welker's path before looking for the ball, so technically the call had merit. However, Welker seemed to throttle back at the end so the PI contact was minimal. If Welker accelerated to the ball and crashed into the DB, the PI would have been deserved. Just on the eye test, I would haven't have cried at all if the flag wasn't thrown.

You and several others evidently see this a lot differently than I did. Maybe I'm too "old school"...or just too old period, but I'll never see that as being a PI

The Arrington OPI call was much different. Arrington had position the entire time and didn't obstruct the receiver's path to the ball. The contact was initiated by the receiver. The ref in the booth was some combination of drunk and blind (drind? blunk?)

This was just PAST dumb. Felger and Mazz had Perrera on today. I wish they had asked him about both these calls.

I think Chung's story isn't complete yet. His role will certainly be different going forward. Probably more of a small linebacker role against teams with multiple TE packages.

I think you are being prescient here, Meta. This could very will be the week were BB dusts off the 3 safety defense as a major component for this week's defensive plan

As for Wilson, it is clear that the intent was not to have him starting this year or being the key nickel guy. That is why the Talib acquisition has a multiplicative effect. Arrington is much better in limited nickel/slot snaps (and his ST play improves as well). McCourty's range gives opposing QBs something to think about before going deep. Gregory doesn't have to always be protecting deep and has freedom to use his instincts to make plays.

Nice take on Gregory, and like I said before, I was probably being to harsh on Wilson with my original post. He's now the 4th safety, and how many snaps is the 4th safety going to get.

Yep and they are just now looking to him in the passing game (not enough for my liking though). If Brady had enough time to step into his throw, Vereen may have had another big gainer last night.

Hard to complain about this offense, but I'd really love to see ALL the RB's get more involved with the passing game, but especially Vareen.
My additions...

1) Yes Mr. Gruden...the defense stipulates that Tennessee, Florida and Alabama are all in the SEC. Please move on.

2) This game was WAAAAAAAY too big for Schaub and the Texans coaches. Schaub had checkdowns, screens and slants available all night but just couldn't bring himself to take small profits and control the field. The game plan was disjointed. Man coverage with simple pressure packages? No play action passing? When they had success for 2-3 plays in a row, they never built off it. Very strange for such an important game.

3) While Brady didn't take quite a few hits, the OL did an outstanding job. I'll have to check the game again to get details, but they almost always did enough to make the play successful.

4) It is clear that LB blitzes are now a key part of the pass defense. All 3 of them have burst and arrive with malice. Even without sacks, that affects the comfort level of any QB and challenges protection to devote focus on pressure that may or may not come.

1 Gruden mostly annoys me. Every now and again he throws in a useful insight, but most he just irritates me.

2. If you were a Texan fan, you'd like to think that your coaching staff will simply take this game as a lesson plan on how NOT to play the Patriots, if we meet up in playoffs. But you never know. Both Kubiak AND Phillips are known as the kind of guys who basically say, this is how we play.....stop us....if you can.

3. Yeah. the OL was a big of mix bag. Sometime they were simply outstanding. and for a short stretch, they looked like they were going to get Brady killed. Clearly they were good enough to put up 42 points, you I guess they were good a lot more often than they were shaky.

4. I am really looking forward to seeing Hightower start to make impact plays, especially on pass rushes. They guys is supposed to be fast and 270. I do worry that even in victory, we showed teams that we have a hard time covering RB's and TE's with our LBs

 

[patfanken]

Exactly, we don't even know what the hell Ken thinks of Lincoln or what he's drinking at Starbucks.

I grew up in Dorchester and rarely drink coffee, and when I do its cheap and black.

 

[CityOfChampions]

Am I the only one who thinks JJ Watt might be on roids? I don't want to slight him - if anything it's a compliment to how well he is playing that makes me think he might be on something. I was watching the game with my parents and brother and they all said the same thing. Talib's price was worth it for the Colts game and shadowing AJ alone imo lol. Can't wait for him to keep getting better. I can't blame Tavon for his "fall" I still think he was doing well.

 

[RayClay]

Like I said before, Chung might have been our best DB or at least one of the reasons the defense improved a bit last season after he came back,and now he's merely a back up. That says a lot about both our talent in the secondary and the depth we now have at S now that we moved McCourty back there and Gregory got healthy. Wilson is now the #4 guy and can wait his turn.

BTW-People forget that one of the reason's we lost that Seattle game was because by the 4th quarter of that game. Wilson and Ebner where the 2 safeties on the field.

Not its not a big thing, but I had some hope for him, but like Chung, this is likely his last season with the Pats. Clearly injuries have sabotaged his career here.

My point is, I have to disagree that's a certainty. Once drafted, it really doesn't matter whether they were a #1 or an UDFA, someone needs to come in and beat him out for the job of backing up Wilfork and whoever.

If someone's not playing because someone else is playing great, that's a good thing, as far as I'm concerned.

Let's just imagine that he's reasonably healthy and a DL goes down. He's capable of more than holding his own (we don't know, but he's capable). So he plays great a couple games...when the starters are healthy, Love is still probably more consistent, Vince isn't giving up a snap without a fight and Deaderick with his height and speed is probably going to get minutes against certain teams Brace won't (like Houston).

Unless he's a locker room cancer, I don't ever want to get rid of a player, I want to get a better player. Cutting Brace for a player that simply doesn't have that size/strength doesn't cut it, no matter what their attitude. There's a lot more defensive line backups that are a little lethargic than there are UDFAs like Love who can actually play. It comes with the territory for guys in the mid 300s. How many 7th rounders, UDFAs and street FAs did we go though that simply couldn't get it done before we found Love?

If we get somebody better as a backup and Brace is cut, I'm glad we got somebody better, or more useful. If he wants a better career, that's up to him, not my concern. For now, If he has one or two good games because of injuries where our run defense or pocket pressure doesn't suffer, that's fine with me. He's capable of that. 90% of FAs available near that size aren't, we've hosted many of them.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Am I the only one who thinks JJ Watt might be on roids? I don't want to slight him - if anything it's a compliment to how well he is playing that makes me think he might be on something. I was watching the game with my parents and brother and they all said the same thing. Talib's price was worth it for the Colts game and shadowing AJ alone imo lol. Can't wait for him to keep getting better. I can't blame Tavon for his "fall" I still think he was doing well.

Meh, all the juicers I've encountered and have seen are way more wound up than Watt is. That guy is so chill when he isn't ripping people's heads off. He's not getting into fights after every play and headbutting guys without a helmet on like one of his teammates.

 

[buile]

How many 7th rounders, UDFAs and street FAs did we go though that simply couldn't get it done before we found Love?

True Love?

 

[CityOfChampions]

True Love?

We found Love in a hopeless place. :bricks:

 

[Kulko]

The ref is watching the players not the ball. Is it really that ref's call to determine both contact and ball trajectory.Since it seems the "uncatchable" call has become so rare these days, it's possible the refs are instructed to be judge and jury on contact only. And remember, these WRs/DBs, at full speed are covering 9-10 yds/second. If the ball is in the vicinity, they have to call contact that shoves a WR off line.

Thats surely true, but they could still pick up the flag after they have seen a ball hit alpha centauri. I have not seen that particular play and its really hard to guess, what a full speed receiver can do with a diving catch etc. but some of these calls have really been headscratching lately

 

[The Gr8est]

How many 7th rounders, UDFAs and street FAs did we go though that simply couldn't get it done before we found Love?

So the Pats were looking for Love in all the wrong places?

 

[Metaphors]

He's now the 4th safety, and how many snaps is the 4th safety going to get.

I don't see it as being a 4th safety vs. having a defined role that he can be expected to handle. If the offense goes spread to attack downfield, then Wilson gets the call. If they go spread and are hitting the short stuff, bring in Cole. If they go 2 TE and are running a lot of PA, call on Chung. So the depth is nice, but the flexibility it brings is probably more important. And while your point on a 4th safety is well taken, the times you do need a 4th safety to step up tend to be critical...and I'm glad that will be Wilson instead of Ebner/Slater.

Hard to complain about this offense

Forgot in my original post but I actually do have a complaint. The play call where Brady throws a lollipop pass to a receiver going down the seam needs to be shredded, burned and dumped in acid with any remains stored in one of those boxes at the end of Raiders. That play not only never works but has resulted in a significant portion of Brady's picks over the last couple of years.

3. Yeah. the OL was a big of mix bag. Sometime they were simply outstanding. and for a short stretch, they looked like they were going to get Brady killed. Clearly they were good enough to put up 42 points, you I guess they were good a lot more often than they were shaky.

They had some trouble with Watt but that wasn't surprising. Even when Watt got through, Brady still had a chance to make a play. You obviously want Brady to stay clean but the hits he did take weren't cringe-worthy. And the Mercilus sack looked to be on the RB (which does need to be cleaned up).

I do worry that even in victory, we showed teams that we have a hard time covering RB's and TE's with our LBs

Agree and that could be problematic in the playoffs. This is why I think it is premature to toss Chung on the scrap heap. I'm hopeful that Belichick has personnel groupings and scheme to deal with this and the Niners game will be an ideal time to test that.