Idle thoughts: The 5 phases of draft emotions of an NE Patriots fan

[patfanken]

You know they say there ere 5 phases of grief - anger, denial, rationalization, depression, and acceptance. When you are a NE Patriot fan you are subject to similar mood swings, every spring when draft season comes to town. There is just no other way to get around it. As an author of several melt downs in the past, I have boldly predicted the beginning of the end of the Pats reign of excellence when they drafted 2 RB's and QB. Now a few days later I was brought back from the edge by wiser fans, but for a day or two I fell victim to the blind rage of a post BB draft. It is one of the interesting ironies of being a Pats fan the last 15 years, that while it might be the most the most envied position in sports fandom, something other fans can only dream bout. During draft time it seems like we go from a "throne of ease" to "a crown of thorns". This year looks like it is no different.

So here is how it looked going in. We had 9 picks with a roster that was stacked enough that only 4 of those picks were likely to make the team. 5 would be a surprise and 6 would be shocking. Many of us were hoping the Pats would use some of the those picks to move up in the draft for higher quality players and wind up with fewer picks. So,, of cours instead we do just the opposite. Throughout the draft Bill lowered the quality of the picks to increase the number like he was trying to collect lottery tickets in a week with a $500MM jackpot So join with me while I attempt to make SOME sense of this annual frustration.

Malcolm Brown -

Well, it started well, anyway. It's been a long time since the Pats were the beneficiaries of a guy falling to them at an obvious position of need. As a matter of fact, the last time I remember it was Vince Wilfork. Now I believe Vince and Malcolm are 2 different players, but this is also 2 different eras. Brown gives us some much needed size in the middle but some push as well. I can't wait to see him and Easley working together. I never expected him to be there and I was very pleased we were able to get him. I expect the glee was pretty much universal. I'd be interested in hearing from disenters

Jordan Richards- DB

I knew something was off when Ali Marpet came off the board just a few picks before 64. And then BB hit us with another 2nd round special. How could it have gone more wrong. Lets see, it was a player most of the "experts" had going somewhere from the 4th to the 6th. It was a player who was at a position of LEAST need. And there were several binkies still on the board we could have taken (AJ Caan, etc). Have I missed anything? I was so disgusted I decided that at that point I was no longer going to participate and waited until now, after the dust has settled, to look at what happened and seek therapy through this thread.

First I have to say after I learned his dad played ball at Tufts, my alma mater, Jordan has a life long fan and supporter. And before we bring on the nightmares of the Tavon Wilson pick.let me state up front, Wilson has been a fairly productive player for the Pats in his first 3 years. The last 2 being a core ST player and capable back up in the secondary. It should be noted that there are a half dozen 2nd round picks who only wish they'd been as productive. Still I wish Bill would stop picking up core special teamers in the 2nd round. At least when Wilson was drafted there was a glaring need at the position.

One other thought on Richards tangentially. I don't think BB looks at the secondary like most of us. He sees less of CB's, SS's, and FS's and more about just DB's in various combinations of skill sets. So while we all are looking a Jordan Richards and looking a S and wondering why we need another, Bill might look at Richards and see a"particular set of skills" that he wanted to add to his mix.

Geeno Grissom - DE

I've since read a lot of nice things about Grissom since his reach of a selection in term of his quickness and acceleration. He might be have been a victim of a lot of too many position switches to reach his potential, and a number of scouts thought he could be a pleasant surprise for someone who selects him in the back half of the draft.....NOT with their 3rd pick!!!!!!!!!!...and then immediately trade off their 4th.

Here's my problem with this pick. Its the fact that we already have Buchannon and Moore on the roster as developmental DE's and both of them have better speed and quickness #'s, plus a year or so experience. Why do we need another

Trey Flowers -

Sounds to me like a repeat of Grissom which is a repeat of Buchannon who is a repeat of Moore, who will be competing with Bequette..... and oh yeah, all at a position that is currently being more that adequately manned by Ninko, Jones, and Sheard.

Tre Jackson OG

FINALLY another name I had heard before, yet about 2 rounds lower than I thought we would have. If HE'd been the 2nd round pick, I doubt anyone would have blinked and most would have been thrilled to get such a "highly regarded" pick at #64. His drop does give one pause as to why, but it does show you who sometimes those "draft experts" get it wrong. But at any rate, here is the LG everyone hoped for, so a sigh of relief

Shaq Mason OG

- cool name for starters - and then a ton of questions - Obviously a great run blocker but because he comes from a triple option system, no one has any idea if he can pass block. He never played C, but we drafted him to be one. Finally he's short and undersized. Sounds like a perfect pick for this draft. Actually he's a nice thought in the 6th or 7th round, but not the 4th where you could have taken a chance on a 6'3 CB like the Ravens did or Nick Marshall, or name your own binky

Joe Cardonna LS -

Fine, we need one, and he's supposedly the best in a while, but in the 5th round? No one's picked a LS this early since.... da da... BB did it a few years ago to mixed reviews . Was anyone even sure the kid can play for us next year before we drafted him that early?

Max Wells OLB

AJ Derby TE

Darryl Roberts CB

Xavier ****son DE

Now when you get down to this level, I don't think you have a right to bi!ch or moan about any pick because its such a crap shoot. Besides I'm tired of writing about so many players that I can't justify drafting. However if anyone want's to crow about a late round binky that was picked feel free. Unfortunately, I don't remember ever seeing these names linked to the Pats or mentioned on the draft board, and I know none of the ones that I would have loved to see like Nick Marshall or Tony Lippett are there.

But ironically, historically here is one thing we know for an almost certitude. One of these kids will not only make the team, he will become a relatively important contributor down the road. The thing is that you can lose a lot of money trying to bet on which one it will be.

So there you have it. Only 3 players have any shot at providing any real production next year. Brown, (likely) Jackson (a shot), and Cardonna (if he's released to play) You have a right to be angry. It seemed like so many did so much more in this draft. So let it out. Its how you start the process

Now comes the denials. "This happens every freaken' year." "When will BB the GM ever help BB the coach" "Why didn't he do THIS or THAT, or the OTHER"

Now the Rationalizations. "BB has been doing this more successfully than anyone over the last 15 years". "He must know what he's doing". "Just look at the past record". "This is the time of year when the Jets, Dolphins and Bills win the AFCE" "He must believe that we are better at CB than we do, and shouldn't HE have a better idea than us". "We got the guy we wanted in Brown, after that was luxury." He didn't like anyone after 55 and decided to go for quantity and just hope he can win the numbers game since after Brown the next 10 is all such a crap shoot anyway"

Then the depression. While this all sinks in and we move on to the next stage of team building, I will avoid the talk shows and draft discussions on radio just because I know what the complaints are going to be and I'm tired of hearing them over and over again. They simply aren't relevant. It makes no sense to compare the football knowledge and accept that Mel Kiper or Mike Lyoko's opinion of where Jordan Richard's is better drafted is better than Bill Bellichick's

Finally we hope we all get to the ACCEPTENCE - I accept that BB knows more than the "so called experts" that criticize what he's done (or praise him). I accept that the Pats will be a solid, deep, talented and well coached team that will compete strongly for another championship. I accept that 6 or 7 of these draft picks will end up on the PS, or off the roster. I accept that I will listen to other people's would haves and could haves with grace and equanimity. AND I will try my best to spend a little as possible time wondering WTF Bill? '

Well this has helped me I hope its helped you as well. Comments as usual, are actively solicited

 

[AzPatsFan]

Ken,

You have analyzed the typical phases a pats fan annually undergoes.

All are Pats fans but some kling to their Kiper reports longer than others. But slowly the evidence mounts. BB the GM is well above average as a GM, even while he has no peer as a Head Coach. Few have the responsibility to be the CEO of an entire football organization and his assistant coaches, his professional and college scouting organization, and his CAP Management and CAP Planning is truly great.

 

[roguepatriot]

Pretty sure Jackson has more than a "shot" to help next year and for BB, more than 2 starting rookies is not a preferable situation. I usually seem to be happier than most at the end of a draft weekend, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised to see more than normal to disagree with you here. All I looked for this year was lots of help to both lines. So yeh can't say I totally understand the Richards pick when it was taken, but if Tavon can contribute as a rotational DB this coming year, I don't think he will have been the disaster others did, especially when he was exposed as much in the 1st year, who's to say this guy can't contribute as the hybrid LB/S Bill still would like for the 4-2-5 D. Plus if people took into account the success rate for a pick that is basically 3rd round and all the ones after him, (getting close to 25%), maybe we can temper our expectations for binkies and just enjoy that the value of all our picks would barely get us into the top ten of the 1st round, while with just one pick (MinM) the football gods let such a talent fall to us on Thursday.

 

[Username]

I think you're pretty wide of the mark on Grissom, Flowers and Mason to be honest.

I actually prefer Flowers to Grissom and was surprised he was still there, but they're both upgrades on Bequette, Moore and Buchanon. As for Mason, that dude was one of my favourite OLinemen coming into the draft, the dude is a wrecking ball and although he was named as a center, I'm pretty sure he'll play at RG.

Two things that stand out for me from the draft.

1) Every single player we drafted, with perhaps the exception of Malcom Brown, is a workhorse and relentless. They all go 100% every snap. As far as I see Malcom Brown goes hard most of the time too, but some scouting reports claimed he took some snaps off. I didn't see this though, I saw games where he tired due to his high effort.

2) Our OLine is now full of big nasty bruisers with bad intentions. Add Blount, Gray and Gaffney to that mix and we're going to wear a lot of defensive units down.

 

[BlitzFritz]

Thanks Ken. I always look forward to your posts.

1. One thing you did not mention, which I think is important, is that BB is ALSO looking at next year's need when drafting this year. Drafting better back up DE's (Flowers, Grissom) for when Ninko and Sheard and even Chandler Jones contracts end. He is thinking ahead.

2. BB values special teams more than many teams we know. That means he actually uses draft picks like LS.

3. The Jordan Richards pick is a question mark for sure. I think you nailed it tho -- BB looks at the secondary differently than we do. Plus see #2 above re special teams.

4. Lastly, I think the Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason picks look very solid. Those kids are the future and at least one will be starting on Thursday night against Pitt, no?

thanks for your writing, keep posting

-- FRITZ

 

[DarrylS]

It is stressful being a Pats fan during free agency and the draft, it gets much easier in Nov, Dec, Jan and sometimes February...

 

[Clonamery]

Ack, I took cyanide this year. Thought I was going to hell but being a Pats fan has it's rewards.

From up here in heaven, everything looks great! No worries, Ken!

 

[PScottman]

The blissful ignorance of all things college and fantasy makes the Patriots draft process one of mere curiosity for me vice any other emotion. I have no vested interest, knowledge, or conception of any of these players and as such can take them as I think intended which is simply: "put them on the field and see what they can do".

Many people referenced the old Bum Phillips quote of "your'n/his'n" late in the playoffs last year (apologies for not having the exact citation of who) about Belichick and how he continually simply plugs players into situations where they display their particular strengths and hide their particular weaknesses. That in no way means he's going to win the Super Bowl every year - talent has a role, but then again the Patriots have taken MUCH less talented teams within single plays of both Super Bowl as well as other tier playoff victories.

Given the way Belichick handles the most of the roster, wherein "star" status means today only in context and carries no sentimentality or weight in the grand long-term scheme, the draft isn't that different - he sets up his board, executes it on draft day, and then manages what he has from there through on field observation. Getting caught up in the woulda, coulda, shoulda is wasteful in that most precious of resources: time. He'll augment with trades or simply continue to throw more and more bodies at the issue (the Patriots continually lead in numbers of visits year in and year out) until something works, even if at a much lower level of talent, and the adjustment, instead of being in continuous search for the "perfect" match at every position is usually a slight change in style or emphasis for the team (such as the morph to power running two years ago when our WR corps was lacking).

The Patriots seemingly draft for team (which I admit means many things including talent by position, but other less measurable traits as well). That's my observation, and that is the polar opposite of today's drafting for many other things not quite focused on that particular attribute.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Need a new position on the depth chart

Grief Counselor (3)......Elizabeth.....Kubler.....Ross

 

[reflexblue]

You know they say there ere 5 phases of grief - anger, denial, rationalization, depression, and acceptance. When you are a NE Patriot fan you are subject to similar mood swings, every spring when draft season comes to town. There is just no other way to get around it. As an author of several melt downs in the past, I have boldly predicted the beginning of the end of the Pats reign of excellence when they drafted 2 RB's and QB. Now a few days later I was brought back from the edge by wiser fans, but for a day or two I fell victim to the blind rage of a post BB draft. It is one of the interesting ironies of being a Pats fan the last 15 years, that while it might be the most the most envied position in sports fandom, something other fans can only dream bout. During draft time it seems like we go from a "throne of ease" to "a crown of thorns". This year looks like it is no different.

So here is how it looked going in. We had 9 picks with a roster that was stacked enough that only 4 of those picks were likely to make the team. 5 would be a surprise and 6 would be shocking. Many of us were hoping the Pats would use some of the those picks to move up in the draft for higher quality players and wind up with fewer picks. So,, of cours instead we do just the opposite. Throughout the draft Bill lowered the quality of the picks to increase the number like he was trying to collect lottery tickets in a week with a $500MM jackpot So join with me while I attempt to make SOME sense of this annual frustration.

I too felt disgust with the JRichards pick. I too stopped watching after said pick. I believe that BB does go 'Rouge' on Nick Cassario, his predecessors and their staffs, and picks a player he gets enamored with or is recommended. That was the scenario that one pats beat writer had mentioned last fall to explain picks such as JR and tavon wilson. I would rather have BB stay out of drafting and just concentrate on coaching Now He makes it much harder on himself by drafting the way he does. For example in the second round he could have taken and edge rusher with proven production like UCLA's Odighizuwa, Nate Orchard or D Hunter etc. BUT he choses to take Two rushers late in the draft that are duplicates of ones that already on the team. let Cassario and his crew make the selections

 

[goheels22002]

A few reactions to Ken's OP:

First, the draft to me is like cruising through the supermarket with a list of a couple of things to get, and doing a little impulse buying. After all, the Patriots filled roster spots 75 through 90 in the last few days with 11 selections and five undrafted free agents. We now have 16 new players to google, admire and scratch our heads about.

In the meantime, they get to fill out forms in HR and change their underwear after they realize that they're on the same football team with the best to ever play the game.

Of those 16 players, six, maybe seven, will make the active roster. At every position of need, they will compete with players who just won the Super Bowl.

Only one, in my estimation, will be an opening day starter - one of the two guards, and after watching highlights, my money is on Shaq Mason. He is one nasty man along the lines of Bryan Stork.

Cornerback is the only position on the Patriots that seems undermanned. But, a look at the roster indicates that there are 8 cornerbacks fighting for four jobs, and 7 defensive backs with only one player - Patrick Chung - listed as a safety: http://www.patriots.com/team/roster This is very interesting to me. 16 players are listed in the secondary, only one as a safety. Six of those guys were not on the roster at the end of the season. It will be fascinating to see who emerges. I wish the open training camp sessions started tomorrow so we could see these guys first-hand against the receivers in coverage drills.

DE/OLB got very crowded over the weekend as well with Flowers, Grissom and ****son being drafted to an already deep front 7. All three players come from big-time programs with excellent coaching. All three bring versatility, especially Grissom, who played all over the place at Oklahoma. He is a fascinating player to pair or platoon with Jamie Collins - both are athletic 6-3 defenders. The front seven is faster, deeper and younger. There are some tough cuts coming in August.

Ken passed on commenting on Matthew Wells, a teammate of Collins at Mississippi State. He's a burner for a player who played linebacker in college, but looks more like a big safety on video. He's a long shot to make this team, but a fascinating defender in a league that is following the leader by featuring tight ends, especially the ones the Patriots will see in 2015. Wells, Collins, Grissom all have the size to match up with the Charles Clays, Julius Thomases, Jason Whittens, and Cameron Jordans of the NFL.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

A few reactions to Ken's OP:
Ken passed on commenting on Matthew Wells, a teammate of Collins at Mississippi State. He's a burner for a player who played linebacker in college, but looks more like a big safety on video. He's a long shot to make this team, but a fascinating defender in a league that is following the leader by featuring tight ends, especially the ones the Patriots will see in 2015. Wells, Collins, Grissom all have the size to match up with the Charles Clays, Julius Thomases, Jason Whittens, and Cameron Jordans of the NFL.

Wells has special teams + written all over him. But let's dream big... what if his big safety/physical freak ability can be polished up with some more-than-just-physical coverage skills? Then he lines up with that hole at safety, and -- now this is afterdraft optimism talking -- enables all sorts of disguised coverage because he's a capable LB as well.

More likely, he's a hella gunner until/unless he can earn an expanded role in camp.

 

[borg]

Dial 911....Ken is on the ledge with an empty pill container next to his 5th of peach schnaps
For me...I loved the Pats draft....top to bottom. I believe BB has solved the second biggest problem that plagued last year's defense (the loss of Revis being #1). Despite being the Super Bowl champion defense, this grouping was very short on depth (except at DB in '14) in the front 7 and IMO at safety. After the FA period and the draft, the depth issue in the front 7 and safety is solved.
Yes safety play was solid last year but I would argue that Revis and his lone man act allowed BB to cover up safety deficiencies. Sure McCourty gets lots of praise for his work but the fact remains the Pats safeties are not play makers and Patrick Chung will be exposed in '15 without a Revis type to take the pressure off the rest of the secondary. Imagining the composition '15 Patriots secondary, I envision a bigger reliance on sub defenses based on two points......1) teams will be playing catchup thanks to a Brady high octane led offense that will hit the ground running (unlike last year, the WRs /TE starters are healthy and fully knowledgeable of the system)...and....2) I expect opponents to attack the perceived weakness of NE's defense....which has to be considered their '15 secondary. With 5 and 6 DBs running around in the backfield, organization is a necessity. Its complicated. As we have learned over the years looking at the Pats WR drafting conundrums, best athlete doesn't make the best receiver. I argue the same has to be said about safety. Obviously BB believes this given his safety choice this week. It will be all about scheme and he wanted a player who can GET IT. From BB's remarks about the Stanford kid, I expect we are seeing the birth of a future team captain.
Moving on to the O line.......from Jackson's highlights....a lot was asked of him...pulling sealing, turning his opponent....and the kid delivered. And his motor.......oh yeah. I like his future...especially after the trainers do their thing.
Shaq...I will leave you with one thought....goal line offense....Shaq firing off the LOS. The kid is a bullet being fired out of a gun and I would be running behind that bullet. Blocking Back......oh yeah. Me likey.
The OLB/DE picks prior to the O lineman...I view them as lottery tickets. BB knew when he could get his O linemen so he rolled the dice with Grissom and Flowers......depth for sure....and hopefully something more.
The Wells pick intrigues me the most.......special team to start....and a sub role down the line. Speed and instincts......a toy for BB to play with on D
Derby....I just wish teams could have secure farm systems that other teams can't raid. I like the way this kid moves
Bottom line....every team has weak groupings.....and the only weak area I see as of today is at CB. (3rd down back too). One problem area out of a dozen.....31 other teams wish they had this problem. This is a far deeper team than last year. Now it is up to BB to find a way to win without a stud CB.

 

[Nonentity]

I think BB reminds us every year that he sees the draft very differently to how the average fan sees it, and especially different to how the TV talking heads see it.

There's consistent themes every year in the players he drafts, and these aren't things that he conceals.

• High work ethic/motor
• Intelligent players
• Team captains/respected by their peers
• Big and athletic - emphasis on power over finesse
  
• For the players without a clear NFL position, "he's a football player" and "we'll find a way to use him". Edelman, Collins, Hightower, Ebner, Slater - all of them either had to switch position (Edelman) or settle down into a single position (Collins, Hightower) or specialised in special teams (Ebner, Slater)

The post-Day 1/2/3 press conferences are great because he opens up about the players. Read the transcripts (linked above) and you can already see his plans for many of the draftees.


We all know that the draft is a crapshoot, yet every year the draft analysts try to tell us otherwise. Just look at ESPN's thumbs up/down for each team. 28 thumbs up, 4 thumbs down. Ridiculous. We all know that it never works out that way. If you hit on 50% of the players you draft, you've done well.

Bill's approach is to draft football players, usually at positions of need, who'll fit into a winning team & locker room. The Patriots, as a franchise, emphasise pre-game preparation, intense film-watching, work ethic and the importance of the team over the individual.

Every one of the drafted players embodies those goals.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Wells has special teams + written all over him. But let's dream big... what if his big safety/physical freak ability can be polished up with some more-than-just-physical coverage skills? Then he lines up with that hole at safety, and -- now this is afterdraft optimism talking -- enables all sorts of disguised coverage because he's a capable LB as well.

More likely, he's a hella gunner until/unless he can earn an expanded role in camp.

In his presser, when talking about Wells, BB flat out said safety. He has the speed and the in space quickness to potentially make a go of it. Next is finding out how he can diagnose offenses and make plays.

 

[patsfan13]

Draft Day(s) are pretty easy for me. Ignorance of the boards is bliss. Some of the picks are replacing players drafted previously, some are hedges for players who will be free agents retirees ect. It is also only part of the team building process.

The draft is a crap shoot especially for a team like the Pats with a deep roster.

We are playing checkers when we look at the draft, BB is playing 3D chess.

'Don't worry, Be happy.'

 

[PatsFanInVa]

In his presser, when talking about Wells, BB flat out said safety. He has the speed and the in space quickness to potentially make a go of it. Next is finding out how he can diagnose offenses and make plays.

Yeahhhh that "next" is where the speed of development comes into play... not to mention the ceiling

 

[OhExaulted1]

With every pick I think most had the same emotion (not me):

Draft a WR! Draft a WR! Draft a WR! Draft a WR!

SMH.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

There's consistent themes every year in the players he drafts, and these aren't things that he concels.

• High work ethic/motor
• Intelligent players
• Team captains/respected by their peers
• Big and athletic - emphasis on power over finesse
  
• For the players without a clear NFL position, "he's a football player" and "we'll find a way to use him". Edelman, Collins, Hightower, Ebner, Slater - all of them either had to switch position (Edelman) or settle down into a single position (Collins, Hightower) or specialised in special teams (Ebner, Slater)

...

First of all, agree on the one biggest point: Of COURSE BB is a bigger expert on the draft than anybody here. People who he hires, and people who THEY hire, are bigger experts than anybody here. We're amateurs having fun, and forever may we remember that distinction.

Point two, on the bullet-list: Yes these are prized characteristics, in some combination, for BB picks. But once you break it down, since you get on the list with any one characteristic, you pretty much account for everybody's draft philosophy (except the "emphasis on power over finesse," although that only applies to so many positions. Our new 240-something pound long-snapper, not so much.)

I'd add to the bullet list "Versatile," which is another way of saying "he's a football player." The Pats so enjoy the "does a lot well" types so much I believe the eyebrows go up when they see a guy who's got more than 1 position on the resume (moreso than "we'll find a way to use him," I think it's "hmmm now that gives us a couple more ways to use this guy...")

But as an example as a moveable cliche, take a look at your first bullet - high motor. There are guys high in this Pats draft specifically called out by scouts as lacking that trait. Of course the Pats' scouting staff > the mediots, but we don't have the Pats staff's notes to go by.

Etc. Yes we emphasize those traits in the bullet list ... but you've just got to hit one or two bullets. In the end you'll have a draft heavy in said traits but not every player will fit the checklist. Some will only fit the "physical characteristics" trait or the "intelligent" trait, etc.

Point three, what does "concel" mean?

 

[Tunescribe]

You know they say there ere 5 phases of grief - anger, denial, rationalization, depression, and acceptance. When you are a NE Patriot fan you are subject to similar mood swings, every spring when draft season comes to town. There is just no other way to get around it. As an author of several melt downs in the past, I have boldly predicted the beginning of the end of the Pats reign of excellence when they drafted 2 RB's and QB. Now a few days later I was brought back from the edge by wiser fans, but for a day or two I fell victim to the blind rage of a post BB draft.

For the first time ever, I ignored the entire draft after the first round and now am reading all the autopsy reports. I feel like I saved myself a lot of angst.