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Idle thoughts - pregame break down - Pats/Jets

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Sep 17, 2010.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    Another great story line....or LINES - The immovable object meets the irresistible force. What could be better. So what better way to start this thread with how to attack the "immovable object"

    1. We know from game one that even without Jenkins the Jets shut down completely a better running game than we have here.

    2. We also know that while the Jets D is a good one under any conditions, when they play at home that advantage is increased even more than usual for a home team. The reason is the style of D the Jets play. They do a great job of overloading and disguising their many blitzes. And the key elements of defeating that kind of D are recognition and communication.

    Now this is the 3rd game the Pats have played against this Jets D, and I'm pretty confident that the Pats OL and QB will do a very good job of recognizing the point of attack...at least most of the time. HOWEVER when the Jets play at home, the noise level makes communication MUCH MUCH more difficult.

    For example, the Pats are likely to go to silent counts. That means they have to look in to see when the ball is snapped just like a DLman. Because of that, they lose the critical edge they have in getting to move first. That microsecond delay makes a difficult job, even more difficult.

    Then there is the issue of communications - At Gillette when the Pats set a man in motion and the Defense has to declare itself by its coverage, Brady can yell out calls that let everyone know what he's seen and adjust accordingly. The end result is everyone is one the same page and the offense moves as one. However in NJ, any calls Brady might make would fall on deaf ears in the din. Other methods have to be used. Most likely are hand signals basically passed from one player to another. That's fine except, as we all know, when you pass info from one person to another down a line, very often the last person gets a different message.

    Well maybe its not as dramatic as that, but the point is, playing in NJ makes the likelihood of communications errors grow dramatically. AND the entire concept of the Jet defensive style depends on taking advantage of errors like this.

    So While I would think this would be a double digit win at home. This is going to be a grind it out close game in NJ

    3. So OK what do we do about it. Well the first thing that came to mind is the old Steeler strategy. Back in 2002-4 the Steelers were the team no one could run against. What did the Pats do? Simple, they refused to bang their head against the wall and spread them out went empty backfield and didn't run. :eek: A solution so simple it was genius. This negated the steelers biggest strength simply by formation and play selection and the Pats owned the Steelers during that era.

    Now its not that simple to do that vs the Jets. Teams have had years to work on that offense and more and more you see teams pressure the QB and jump on the Pats short routes and do a much better job. They aren't always effective, but more now than then.

    4. Here's an idea - Have the Pats go 2 TEs empty backfield, and 3 WRs/TEs/RBs. here's the rationale:
    a. By having 7 men across the LOS you make it more difficult to rush from the outside, simply because they have to go a longer distance. So if they rush more than you can block, the open guy has to run farther and the QB gains another second.
    b. Uncovered TEs make great dump off receivers. And if they are uncovered they can attack the middle of the field faster than the D can get to the passer. That means most of the time the Jets will HAVE to cover and account for the TEs and thus have fewer rushers to apply pressure, and even if they do try and cover the TEs with LBs, the Pats win a lot of those individual match ups
    c. The 2 outside receivers spread the field and are now off the LOS which gives them more room for release, and thus in some way negate the Jets press coverage techniques
    d. The 3rd "slot" receiver gives the formation extreme flexibility depending on who is playing the position. You could put a Kevin Faulk in the position and motion him into the QB as a running threat as well as run screens and other patterns. You could have Hernandez there to create a match up problem if that receiver is covered by a smaller Wilson or Leonard. You put Tate on the outside and use Welker in the slot as we have seen for the last 3 years. Lots of options
    e. The formation is balanced, which makes it harder to defend. The 7 men on the LOS make it hard to rush the passer. The 2 wide outs spread the field. All together a tough assignment for a DC. Stronger vs the Pass rush. Flexible enough to attack man to man coverage. Bottom line - I'd love to see it

    4. Regardless of what formations the Pats use this game, I think we all agree that a good part of the Pats strategy will be to create match up advantages with our TEs. Hernandez is too big for their DBs and too Fast for their LBs. Alge won't run away from anyone, but is still a professional receiver who knows how to get position to catch the ball. Getting a Gronk/Leonard match up should be major a goal, because it would just be unfair. Any of our TEs on Leonard is unfair, but if they could get Gronk on Leonard consistently, it would be so unfair that the NFL would have to call in a rules change. ;).

    5. This is a game I REALLY want to win the toss and defer. Just as I assume if the Jets win the toss THEY will want to KO. The crowd will be at its most emotional and loudest to open the game. I know it would be great to just march down the field and shut them up, but that would be a tall order. I'd much rather get the extra possession in the 2nd half after you have had a half to see what the Jets are doing on D, and the Crown noise is down by a few decibels

    6. Finally on offense, we cannot turn the ball over more than the Jets. If they have a 3-1 TO advantage as they did on Monday, they can win this game.

    7. Now to the Jets offense. I know it would be real easy for a Pats fan to be smug about the Jets offense after last Monday. That would be a mistake. There is no way that the Jets are going to be as bad as that historic offensive disaster. They aren't THAT bad, and at this stage of the game, the Pats defense (especially the front 7) isn't as good as the Ravens front 7. So don't be shocked to see the Jets move the ball some and score some points

    8 Common wisdom would dictate the Pats start their defensive strategy by putting 8 men in the box, shut down the running game and force Sanchez to beat you. Based on last game, how could you come to any other conclusion.

    Obviously the Jets know this as well. Their coaches also get paid a lot of money too, so NO ONE should be shocked to see,Sanchez going deep down the sidelines to Edwards or trying to hit Keller up the deep middle a couple of times in the first quarter. However I'm pretty sure the main thrust of the Jets passing attack with be to hit Cotchery over the middle 12-14 yds deep and their RBs (especially LT) out of the backfield.....and of course RUN THE BALL.

    They are obviously going to let Sanchez throw the ball down the field more this game, but they STILL don't want to see him over 30 attempts, so the Pats will definitely see the run

    9. While the Jet OL looked more vulnerable to the Pass rush than last year, and there is a lot of talk about the weakness of Slauson and the deterioration of Woody. All of this is true, HOWEVER the Pats don't have anyone like T Suggs, or a DE as good as HNgata. So the rush will have to be created by scheme more than individual battles.

    I would be happy to see the Pats DL stay aggressive and attack the LOS more then we have seen with the standard 2 gap. I want the DBs to play more man to man or 5 under tight zones than we usually see. And finally I want to see more of that good tackling that limit even the good plays and force the offence to line up and perform. Make the Jets EARN ever yard, every first down, every score.

    I don't think the Jet offense is good enough to sustain more than two 10+ play scoring drives, without self destructing, and 14 points isn't going to win this game, so limiting the "big play" (25+yds) is critical...to both teams

    10. Don't fall asleep on the special teams battle - The Pats return game wasn't a one game fluke, they have had several long punt and KO returns throughout the preseason. It is now a serious threat. However the Jet coverage teams were also excellent in the first game. We all know in a close game, special teams is where games are won or lost. We shouldn't ignore it amid the other more dramatic but less important to the game story lines

    11. As a Pats fan, here is my biggest concern for this game. Historically it hasn't been wise to bet against the team that is viewed the most "desperate". It's even less wise to bet against a HOME team who is the most "desperate", AND even though its early in the season, and the Pats have had 3 superbowl teams that started 0-2 or 1-3, make no mistake about it, the Jets are a "desperate" team. They wouldn't just be 0-2 but they'd be 0-2 with 2 home losses, 2 conference losses, and heading down to Miami.....OUCH.

    That makes this a MUST win, and while I can see a lot of positive aspects to this game and fully expect the Pats to win.....I can't get this old football adage out of my head and it worries me.

    12. Well now its on to Sunday and the melodrama that will play out on the field. And its going exciting and interesting story to see. Let me know what you think, because that's all I got between now an 1pm Sunday. :D
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2010
  2. Northside

    Northside On the Roster

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    Holy crap! :youtheman:
     
  3. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats In the Starting Line-Up

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    Great stuff, needless to say--and they wonder why newspapers are going out of business....the sports pages would rather talk about Randy Moss being a distraction than analyze the game.

    At any rate, your point about desperation is a good one. Combined with the fact that the Jets looked worse than expected and the Pats looked better, very easy to see a Jets victory Sunday. Lot of field goals, say something like 20-16.
     
  4. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    Great post, Ken. Stuff like this is why I love this site.
     
  5. RelocatedPatFan

    RelocatedPatFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    Iagree and this is a fabulous post.
     
  6. BradyMossWelker

    BradyMossWelker Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    The game is at 4:15, not 1 pm :D
    Great post.
     
  7. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Thank you, Ken!!! I'm always impressed how clearly you communicate this kind of material. I'll have your insights in mind as I watch the game.
     
  8. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Fixed it for you. Don't forget!
     
  9. fxkane

    fxkane Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    It seems that almost every year we split with the Jets, and more often than not it is not the home team that wins. Nevertheless, this is the last game I would bet on this Sunday. (there's also something foreboding to me about a 4:15 start--a murky hour)
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2010
  10. SuperPatsFan

    SuperPatsFan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    In two of the three Super Bowl seasons, the Pats swept the Jets.

    In the other (2001), the teams split, with the Patriots winning in Foxboro.
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2010
  11. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    Ken - I don't know why you don't try and get a job at the Herald or Globe or something of that nature...A writer like you is hard to come by...I think you are wasting your skills and we all here would certainly open up the paper with anticipation of your daily blog
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2010
  12. Razor's Edge

    Razor's Edge Practice Squad Player

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    I'm in agreement, I really enjoyed reading this, very thought provoking. Beats the hell out of most anything I hear or read in the papers! :eek::D
     
  13. Zeus

    Zeus PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Minor correction - in 2001 they lost at Foxboro (the Mo Lewis game) and won at NY.
     
  14. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    newspapers and media outlets dont care for sane information. thats the problem.it has to juicy e.g , not once in this analysis the revis-moss overhyped angle was mentioned .
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2010
  15. slam

    slam Practice Squad Player

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    He would have to go through an extensive reeducation plan to work there that would remove his ability to write about substantive football and replace it with the need to write about pointless gossip.

    Albert Breer was a great football writer... once.
     
  16. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    Certainly better than most of those Bleacher Report columnists
     
  17. fxkane

    fxkane Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    So true. And this is not only the case in sports, of course, but all the way down the line. Which is why comments after online articles are often better than the actual article, no matter in what venue in appears
     
  18. Zeus

    Zeus PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Great post, Ken!

    My understanding is that a lot of the jets blitzes are man-to-man. If a back or TE stays in to block, the defender assigned to that player blitzes. That way, they try to always have one one more pash rusher than there are blockers. It also makes them a tough team to runs screens against.

    This is why Revis is so important to the jet D. Man blitzes require man coverage as well. If Revis can contain Moss by himself, that is a big plus for the jets. If Moss draws any kind of safety help, that's a plus for NE even if Moss doesn't put up big numbers - this will lessen the effectiveness of the blitz.

    No great insight here, but Welker will be a key factor as he was in Foxboro last year (15 catches for 192). This is a matchup nightmare for the jets - I really don't see Cromartie as being able to deal with Welker's quickness underneath. Kyle Wilson? Exposed on Monday night as not being ready for man coverage responsibilities.

    I agree that it will be important to create mismatches with Faulk and the TEs. Might we see TEs or backs with initial blocks (to draw the pass rusher) releasing for passes in the flat or underneath the coverage?
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2010
  19. Mainefan

    Mainefan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Posts like this one are one of the reasons I check out patsfans every day (the other is that I'd rather read about football than work).

    But I agree with the psychological evaluation here. I don't like the idea of coming up against a team that feels it has something to prove. The Jets will be at their best on Sunday. We can beat them, but only if we're at our best as well.
     
  20. TheTeufelShuffle

    TheTeufelShuffle On the Roster

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    Jets fan here..

    But, I think the Jets will bracket Welker as much as possible in the slot, not necessarily limiting his catches as much as trying to limit the YAC.

    I think the big mismatch, and I was at the game Monday, is the Pats TE vs the Jets safety's. IF Brodney Pool does not play (questionable, DNP vs Ravens) then the Jets have NOONE who can match up against a big, physical TE. That was the one thing Kerry Rhodes actually did very well. Pool is supposed to replace that. But without him, the Jets have to match Smith or Leonard on a TE. And as tough as both guys are, neither has the natural athletic ability to math-up there. HUGE mismatch.

    Every time the Ravens had to make a play, Heap was open. If Flacco was a little more accurate, Heap could have gone 10-130 easy.

    As a Jets fan, Revis vs Moss is not the key. If Revis is healthy, he will at least slow down Randy to the point that he isn't a game breaker. And I think they learned their lesson with Welker last year.

    It's your tight ends that scare me. The Jets need Pool to play to have a chance at slowing NE down. And since I have never really seen this cat play, who knows if he is even up to that challenge.



    On offense, I expect the Jets to be much better this week. Not that that is saying much...eliminate penalties and stupid mistakes, put 17-21pts on the board, and lets see if Rex and his defense can win the game by holding the Pats to fg's (like 1st game last yr).
     
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