Idle thoughts - pre-SF edition

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Dec 14, 2012.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #91 Jersey

    1.I really wish that Gronk and Edelman were available because it would prove conclusively that when a great offense and a great defense meet, under the rules of today's NFL; the offense is going to win conclusively.

    With both Gronk and Edelman the Pats would have had the receiving numbers to spread the Niners out consistently so that it would be impossible for the to consistently defend them. That isn't to say that they can't win now, but they'll have to do it "differently". With all our weapons we would have done to SF what we did to the great Steeler defenses in the superbowl years....and that was when Defenses were allowed to play defense. Who knows Josh may be able to do that even without 2 key weapons.

    2. Just another fact about the Houston game that will impress the hell out of you. Usually when a team scores over 40 in the NFL some of those points were put up by the defense, of set up by the D with turn overs deep in the opponent's territory. IIRC, The Pats scored all 6 of their TD's with ball starting in their OWN territory. In fact the shortest drive was the first one after the Welker punt return which was still around 60 yds. No cheap TD's in this game. (except the last TD by the Texans :rolleyes:) This is made more amazing by the fact it was against one of the best defenses in the league.

    3. You know, I'm getting tired of the Giants players talking like they "own" the Patriots. Like they have some kind of magical formula to beating them. And you can throw the mediots into that too. Hey, the Giants have won the last 3 times they've played. Its true. But in each case it was by the skin of their teeth, with no small small amount of luck, good calls, and 2 unworldly plays, needed to make it happen. Not to mention the Pats self inflicted wounds.

    ...And what's that blueprint? Hit the QB. Well there is a ******* revelation it there ever was one. Let me know the game that WON'T be won if you can manage to hit the QB. Jeus Christ. They deserve all the credit in world for winning the 2007 game. Great upset. However last year they barely managed to win a game against what was the 2nd worst regular season defense in NFL HISTORY!.

    You won the games. Congratulations. Get over yourself. Stop acting like you've invented the wheel, and that you are on another level. Thank you for allowing this rant. Its been building up for while now.

    4. Its gotten personal now. Nate Solder vs A Smith. Smith had 3 sacks against Solder when he was at Colorado. Now the top sacker in the league is looking to duplicate that on Sunday. And of course, the chicken littles are all getting their pants in a bunch at the thought of Solder's impending doom.

    Well I doubt we shut him out. The guy IS the best pass rusher in the league.(not the best DL) The best in NFL history over the his first 2 years, and Brady is likely to drop back over 35 times. Its must be frustrating to offensive linemen that the defensive player only has to win twice to be declared a victor in their personal war.

    Dante will have Solder ready for this one. He's a lot better now than he was then. In a few years he will be recognized as one of the top LT's in the league. He's already the best offensive lineman taken in his draft class BUT... he's not their yet. Like we saw in that one play against Watt, he CAN be beaten. So I won't be surprised to see Smith get to Brady for some hits, or even a sack. In fact I'd be shocked
    f he doesn't. When you drop back 35+ times, you have to expect that you are going to lose a few of those battles to the great pass rushers. (and Smith IS a great one). BUT...I'm confident Nate will win enough of those battles to win the war.

    5. Another reason Brady is likely to get hit in this game is that because he is likely to need to hold on to the ball longer to find his open man. Unlikely the Texans, the Niners are not going to Blitz much and aren't going to use a lot of man coverages.

    THIS is going to be the game when we see if Brady has learned from his playoff game vs the Jets during the 2010 season, and all those games against the Ravens. Because that's what we are going to see, only with better personnel. That's not to say the offense can't be successful. The rules still favor the offense, even for the most talented personnel. IMHO. it just means that Brady is going to have to be more patient. He is going to have have to be willing to dump the ball off to RB's who weren't the first option. He is
    going to have to commit to the running game for 30+ plays. Lets see.

    6. Amazing stat from the myriad of stats we get each game. The Niners RARELY substitute on defense. IIRC, 10 of their starting defensive players play 90+% of the snaps. That's astounding on 2 levels. First because of the stamina required. Second, because of the fact they've had no one injured all season. As a long suffering Pats fans (at least on the injury front)) I'd love to see that happen to my Pats.

    BUT that's also a flaw, if we can manage it. Long drives and a fast tempo can tire a defense, especially one that doesn't substitute. Harbaugh better be aware of it, because if he isn't getting a lot of 3and outs. His defense will have problems as the game goes on. Just look at the Houston game where most of our 140 odd rushing yards came in the 2nd half, as their defense began to tire.

    7. Another SF stat that is hard to explain is this one. SF has allowed teams into the red zone, only 25 times this season. That's the lowest in the league. HOWEVER, when it does happen, teams have scored TD's over 50% of the time. A percentage that places them in the mid 20's in the league. Hard to compute those 2 facts, but it gives one hope, IF we can get into the red zone.

    8. To my way of thinking, the fact that the Niners beat GB in week 1 and the Pats beat the Broncos in week 5 don't have a lot of meaning. Those games happened too long ago to be relevant now. So when break down what the teams have done since the bye (coincidentally they both had their's on week 9) The only 8 win team the Niners have beaten are the collapsing Bears who were without Cutler for that game. On the other hand, the Pats have beaten the 9 win Colts and the 11 win Texans.

    In this respect the Niners are a lot like last season's Pats team. who didn't face a lot of tough winning teams before the playoffs, so I take the weak Niner schedule with a grain of salt. However while being good, it does explain to some degree the impressive scoring D numbers. Though it should be noted that good offenses, playing poor games (like GB,NO, NYG) still put up 20+ points against them.

    9. The yin and yang of Colin Kaepernick. You have to like our resurgent defense's chances against a 2nd year QB who has started only 3 games. OTOH, you have to think that Harbaugh HAD to have seen things from him in practice that led him to believe he'd go farther with him at QB than the guy who led him to one KO fumble
    away from the Superbowl. Just like BB saw things in Brady during practice that not only made it easy for him to move to Brady after the Bledsoe injury, but keep him there when Drew got healthy. Harbaugh is something of a blowhard, but he's NOT an idiot.

    Athletiic QB's always scare me, and the Niners have no qualms about using him to run, as Denver did withTebow.....only this kid can pass. Plus he has good WR's, a great TE and top 5 RB to surround him. I know the SF offense hasn't been leading the highlights like their defense has, they are still very good (11th in total yds). Don't think that this isn't going to be a as tough a test for the D as any we have had thus far. That would be a mistake.

    10. This is kind of OT, but pertaining the the Saint's Bounty case. I really wish Drew Breas, Mike Florio and the rest of the Saints apology squad would JUST SHUT UP. I'm no fan of Roger Goodell, but I have yet to meet a Saint apologist who could answer this one simple question.

    Why would Goodell and the NFL go through all this tsouris, to defame one of the league's most popular franchises, and the poster child for how an NFL franchise can be a positive force in a community, after Katrina? Why would he do it if he hadn't be literally FORCED into it by the Saints refusal to dismantle an illegal bounty program.

    Don't forget that the punishments aren't just about the Bounties. Its about the Saints lying to the league and obstruction to the investigation. The punishments weren't about just bounties, but that the Saints didn't get rid of them.

    Rather than Brees claiming vindication for Tag's ruling, he should read the damned thing. All he did was essentially say that the players didn't deserve to be suspended for following the orders of their leaders.

    I hated the way Goodell handled spygate. I hated the over reaction to it. I hated the overly harsh penalties. BUT....even the most die hard Pats fan has to admit that the biggest part of BB's "crime" wasn't that he filmed the signals, (everyone knew it wasn't a competitive advantage) but that he KEPT filming the signal long after he was told not to.

    In the same manner. Goodell had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the Bounty gate result, not just because the Saints HAD a bounty program, but because the Saints kept lying and obstructing his attempts to make the game safer (a few of which I actually agree with)

    Until someone comes up with a motive that would have caused Goodell to go to the lengths he did, IF there was nothing going on, like Brees claims. Then I will continue to believe that there WAS a bounty program and the Saints lied about it and at LEAST the organization deserved to be punished like it was. Thanks again. 2 rants in one post. :eek:
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Solder didn't even move to Tackle (from TE) until 2008. Congrats to Smith for beating a kid at a new position. All players improve from college to the NFL but this is an extreme case as the referenced college game was the first season at Tackle for Solder.
  3. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Pro Bowl Player

    last week it was the stretch play play action which I think will also be effective this week......I'd like to see some pump fakes.......fake to a dump off and look for a deeper'll freeze the pass rush for a moment. and get the LB's to commit to the screen that ain't happening.

    I love how teams with speedy pursuit like the niners leave huge gaps on the field
  4. RelocatedPatFan

    RelocatedPatFan In the Starting Line-Up

    in this game, Gronk's ability to both block and receive will be sorely missed. Still, let's get him healthy and have our main offense ready to go for the post season...priority #1 for me.
    Sign me up. Not to mention Brady was suffering from some injuries so we've never been full strength. I give them credit for winning, but it wasn't a dismantling. They talk like they would beat them 9 out of 10 times.

    I don't recall the "classless" Patriots jawing everyone down when they took 3 in 4 years.
    My dog too sounds ferocious (barking) when she's scared too :D. If, by some chance, Solder shuts him out, I want to see him come out and tell it like it is. until then, it's just talk that can only motivate our guys ;).
  5. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #91 Jersey

    Teams that can run the ball have done well against the Niners. Check the Vikings game and the first Rams game. In both they had over 140 yds in rushing. The Pats might have the best OL the Niners have faced, and it looks like all the starters will go. So the Niners are going to have to try and either defend the 12 rushing attack with a 7 man front, or face the 12 passing attack in less than a nickel, But I agree, I'm really looking forward to seeing if Brady will utilized the RB's more as alternate receivers.
  6. DarrylS

    DarrylS Supporter Supporter

    Your good at this, so will give you some info. heard Jackie McMullen on the radio last week and she was saying that she was with some ESPN insiders who were talking about the Patriots incredible record in the second half of the year...

    She said something to the effect that in the first half of the past couple of years the patriots had a defensive QBR of something like 68, in the second hald they had a defensive QBR of something like 34, which gives credence to many of us discussing patience early on.

    I cannot find the exact info, and perhaps you are better at this.
  7. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    MacMullan's theory seems to be that BB's game planning gets a lot deadlier once the season is well along, specifically at the point that film on a team gives a pretty complete picture of them.
  8. CityOfChampions

    CityOfChampions Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    I think BB will confuse Kaep and force him into mistakes and timeouts. I feel comfortable about being able to slow down Kaep and Gore. Just worried about our offense v.s. their defense. Wish we had Gronk. And why do 49ers fans think they're this all time great prime time team? Looking at their schedule their prime time games were against the Lions who suck, the Seahawks who have a good defense but their offense is average, the friggen Cardinals, and the Bears with Jason Campbell starting. I also love the mentality well if the Cards can beat the Pats so can we! Yeah sure... you just need the replacement refs, Brady's annual below average game, a punt blocked which leads to a first and goal for your only TD, a game winning TD by the Pats called back on a bogus hold, and then a missed game winning chip shot. Great mold to try and replicate, obviously.
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
  9. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #12 Jersey

    SF is going to play man on the outside however they play a lot of combination zone over the short and intermediate middle. They'll take their LBs or nickle backs and play tight man off of the line but then they hand those receivers off over the middle and take away the out-cuts. Brady has to be very cautious on these routes. Brees and Rogers both fell victim to thinking these routes were open and they were not. The only way I see the Pats loosing this game is turnovers. I'm not saying they'll blow them out but they have to be patient and work what the defense is giving them. Brooks, Bowman and Willis are all very good at jumping routes and their closing speed is not to be underestimated.
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
  10. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    I totally agree with this. Need to avoid mistakes like Brees made.
  11. Seacoast Fan

    Seacoast Fan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #75 Jersey

    1 Re your Giants rant....thank you. Couldn't have said it better myself. We will all die without seeing another helmet catch...take your insanely lucky catch and shut up already.

    2 Re your Saints rant....thank you. I saw an interview with Brees not long ago and he not only threw Greg Williams under the bus but he made sure to back up and run him over again. Every time he talks about that I lose more respect for the guy.

    3 It seemed to me the only time Tom got hit in the Houston game was when he was throwing deep. But he kept doing it so the conclusion I drew was that Tom wasn't bothered by the hits (relatively speaking of course). I expect the same to happen against SF. Also can we please call a few true screen plays? I think there was one against Houston (woody's fumble-rooski play) and maybe three all season.

    4 Always enjoy your posts, pfk .... Thanks!
  12. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp In the Starting Line-Up

    I think it's natural to worry about this game because San Fran is really good. But let's remember: they are 9-3-1 - a worse record than the Patriots. They lost by 11 to Minnesota (who has no quarterback). They lost by 23 to the Giants. They lost by 3 to the Rams (who the Pats beat by 38). They also tied the Rams.

    They are not some impossible team to beat.
  13. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #12 Jersey

    I don't think anybody was saying they were impossible to beat. Everybody is giving them their due respect as a very good team and a great defense and more importantly the style of defense that has given the Pats issues.
  14. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Butler Island is here Supporter

    #95 Jersey

    was more nervous for houston than this upcoming game..actually very confident
  15. SacPete1

    SacPete1 On the Game Day Roster

    Thanks for the read, Ken. Always a pleasure.
    I think patience will be the key to this game. Pats Defense will want to limit big gains by their QB so will likely give him some throws. I'll be curious to see how he throws a wet ball in the 30's. They don't get to practice that in San Fran although he may have had more of that in Reno but they ran the ball alot. Of course, making SF one dimensional will be the goal so run defense will be paramount. I hope Spikes is ok. this is a game well suited for him and he appears to be laboring a bit.
    As for the O, their patience will definitely be tested. This is easily the best defense they've faced and we may see more short drives with punts like we did Monday night for a stretch. But I do think Tom's greatest quality this year has been his patience. His low int mark is a reflection of that and something that isn't the sexy topic for the media so isn't referenced as much. I'm very curious to see how they attack SF's defense since their scheme is so much different than Houston's. In fact, houston doesn't much of scheme. They play man on the outside with a lot of 5 man rush. Niners don't blitz and I suspect they will force Brady outside the numbers. Sure would like to see Vereen and Woodhead matched up against the LB's in the passing game. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 17-13 game. Should be fun.
  16. Batman

    Batman Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #24 Jersey

    Upon their theory that we got beat off the cards and they won vs them. They should expect to be dismantled as far more recently we bdeatroyed the rams and they lost and tied with them. I am worried about losing the no2 seed and will be before every game we play until the playoffs, but I believe we can beat the 49ers. I think we are the best team in football at the moment and can beat anyone.
  17. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Butler Island is here Supporter

    #95 Jersey

    no manningham tomorrow....good thing. Means more moss
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
  18. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler In the Starting Line-Up

    Good read - long but good :D.

    Even when the Patriot O struggles, they score 20 points. It is very unlikely they don't put enough up to potentially win. The point total will fall on the OL's ability to protect TFB not the ability to open up the run game. Remember that by far the best passing O the 9er D faced over the last 6 weeks is the Saints. The Saints were able to put up 3 drives of about 80 yards - all of them around 10 plays per drive. The 9er D is good but that tells me they can be passed on.

    This game, IMHO, comes down to what we do the 9er run game. Do we jeep CK from successfully running the scrambling-bootleg-wildcat? Do we keep Gore from having a successful day? We do that and we likely win this game. We don't and we likely lose.
  19. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 Supporter Supporter

    Great analysis as always, pfk.

    I'll just add that I like Brady over Kaepernick in the cold and sleet or rain in Foxboro at night in December over a west coast guy who has played all of his pro and most of his college games in warmer places. Our guys should also have a split second edge in getting open on familiar turn in bad conditions.
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2012
  20. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Butler Island is here Supporter

    #95 Jersey

    Oh i would take 20 other QBs over kap in this game if it is snowing and sleeting ect bad conditions for 49ers. Will come down to who can capitalize off those TOs

    Only problem is ball control. DON"T FUMBLE RIDLEY...or anyone else please. I think we will have a TO or two..but nothing major as they will have a few
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2012
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