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Idle thoughts - pre-game

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Jan 14, 2011.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    1. "I am not mentally prepared to lose this game." This phrase, uttered a few weeks ago by Fred Kirsh on PFW in progress, has now become part of a Pats fans lexicon. It was perfect. So as we enter the weekend (I don't work Fridays ;) ) I want to say it loud and clear.

    I AM NOT MENTALLY PREPARED TO LOSE THIS GAME"

    2. There is a LOT of pressure building up for this game, but the interesting thing is the greatest pressure isn't on the team, but on its FANS. Sure it would be a disappointment and an upset, but the TEAM can lose this game and still look back at a remarkable season, AND look forward to being even better NEXT season. However for us fans it would be as crushing a defeat as the one we experienced vs the Giants in superbowl whatever.

    No I'm serious. Players get to turn the page....we CAN'T. It would mean having to deal with the most obnoxious, mean spirited fans in the league, not only for the off season, but even a 16-0 regular season wouldn't erase the stench of a loss on Sunday. I for one am NOT ready to deal with that kind of pain for a full year.

    Jet fans aren't dealing with this kind of pressure. The fact that most of the treads at JI deal exclusively with trash talk and "cheating" show that they are hoping for the best but are expecting the worst. Most have already come to terms with what SEEMS to be the inevitable. A loss on Sunday would turn them into mutant giant piranhas , and we would be the raw meat thrown into the river for dinner. NOT a pleasant vision.

    No my friends, we MUST win THIS game. A loss further down the road would hurt too, but it would be something we could deal with. BUT NOT ON SUNDAY. Not the Jets.

    2, I think Rex has been masterful in steering the media away from the tough questions with all his "its personal" talk. Notice how he hasn't had to deal with questions about his QB, or the relatively recent failures of his defense (Pats Chicago). I know this stuff will get old VERY SOON, but for now he's a pleasant diversion. Still we can start to see the seeds to the start of his demise being planted. But for the present - Good Job Rex, you have a future in PR as a spin doctor.

    3. Cromartie on the other hand DID cross the line. He made it too personal, and in a very uncouth way. But here's what I don't understand. Why isn't anyone outraged by the fact he's taken offense to someone pointing a finger at him. WHAT A LAUGH. Its like a being in kindergarten and rushing to your mother saying "Tommy's pointing his finger at me. Mommy make him stop!," WHAT a whining little girl!

    But the end result is Brady is unfairly being pictured as a serial taunter, and a bad sport. Its almost like its open season on Brady whose only crime in my opinion, is really bad hair. TOM BRADY- Finger pointer. I mean when you think on it for a bit, its ludicrous....just ludicrous

    You have to go back to 2006 and the SD taunting scandal to find something as stupid. That was when the Pats got hammered for supposedly "taunting" the Chargers after getting a most unexpected win on their home field. In that case LT found it unsportsmanlike for the Pats to be mocking the "lights out" dance. In other words he was upset that the Pats mocked an action that was designed to TAUNT the opposing team after a sack. So in other words LT thought it was OK for HIS team to taunt during the game, but was wrong for the Pats to throw it back in their face, after it. It was LUDICROUS. But it was accepted. Just as this myth has been. Go figure :rolleyes:

    4. I don't buy into the common wisdom of the Jets as major rivals who will be with us for a while. I don't see it. This is it for the Jets IMHO. This is their ONE shot at getting past us. After this I see it all going down hill fairly quickly. The "gap" will start to widen again. Here's my case.

    a. The Jets (from what I hear) have only around 35 players signed for next year and have only about $40MM available to fill a roster for next season (assumes a $150MM cap) OTOH the Pats have about 44 players signed and will have about $50MM to fill their roster. Now I may be off in my figures, but the bottom line is that the Jets aren't in the best of shape as far as the cap is concerned, while the Pats are in decent shape. Those in the know can feel free to correct me.

    b. I read a post which showed that all but 2 of the Jets front 7 will be over 30 next season (DeVito and Harris), and there is little depth behind them. Its a very scary situation, especially when you compare it with the Pats, AND your team is build around a strong D

    c. Holmes, Edwards, Harris, Smith, are just 4 of the Jet FAs next season that they must sign just to stay level with their current talent level But the Jets WILL NOT be able to sign everyone due to their impending cap situation. This means that THIS is the most talented Jet roster we can expect to see in the near future.

    d. Next season will bring the deepest and most talented FA class the league has seen. The Pats will be in much better shape than the Jets to take advantage of it.

    e. Assuming the Pats win on Sunday, they will draft FIVE quality prospects next April, before the Jets draft their 2nd player. That is NOT a formula that helps the Jets become better than the Pats.

    f. And then there is the QB. The fact that he's a sub par QB today doesn't mean he will aways be a 55% passer. Remember Ben used to have a relatively low completion percentage. He can improve, PLUS he's shown he HAS the ability to play well at the critical end of games. That cannot be disputed. But what also can't be disputed is that it is MORE likely that he develops into the next Chad Pennington (a good QB, but one that can't carry a team) than a Drew Brees (who can)

    So I guess what I'm saying is that Sanchez COULD become a QB that you could win a superbowl with, given the right team, but he isn't going to take you there. And it might be a while before he has this much talent.

    g. SGreene is a good RB, but he hasn't proven, like they hoped, that he can carry the load as the main RB of a team built around the run....and behind him they have nothing but Joe McKnight.:eek:

    At the start of the year, it looked like the Jets were among the most talented teams in the league, clearly more talented than the Pats, and the most talented Jet team in recent memory. 4 months later, its become clear that the Pats closed that talent gap, and the Jets will have a hard time sustaining the talent the currently have, while the Pats are in position to widen the gap further.

    No my friends, Rex was right, this IS the year the Jets can win the Superbowl, because if they don't, then it might be a while before THEY threaten the Pats again.

    5. Rex did a great job in Indy shutting down the Colts. We shouldn't overlook that. Especially since Manny had ALL his so called weapons with the exception of a single receiver (Clark). No excuses Peyton...though the media will throw you the injury crutch anyway.

    The Pats OTOH create many more problems than the Colts did so I tried to think of how Rex would attack the Pats offense this week. Will he blitz or will he max protect as he did vs Indy. Well the easy answer is a little of both. But the key for the Jets is neither. The key is how well they will be able to DISGUISE their intentions.

    There is nothing easier for a DB to do than cover a WR running a zone route when you are in man. Just as its easier to cover a route designed for man to man defense, when you are in a zone.

    So I see Rex designing his schemes to fool Brady and even more importantly his receivers into misreading the coverages they are running. There are combination coverages you could design that do that. For example, the Pats run motion across the formation to see if anyone follows him. If someone does, the QB will think its a good indication that its a man coverage....but it doesn't have to be.

    You will also see overloads that look like impending blitzes that don't occur. This is designed to get the QB to make a quick throw into a 5 under zone that will eat it up, even if its completed.

    A key here is that the D doesn't have to fool BOTH the QB and receiver. If only ONE makes a misread, the play is likely to fail, often with disastrous results . So a well designed disguise doubles its chance for success, because TWO players have to make the correct read. I'm less worried about Welker and Branch, but VERY concerned about the 2 rookies that will be so key to our passing attack.

    6. But the more the game seems to change, the more it remains the same, because ultimately this game is going to rest on the old adage of which team can run the ball and which team can stop the run.

    I don't think the Jets can possibly win the game unless they rush for over 150 yds. At the same time I don't see how the Pats can lose if they can rush over 100

    7. Don't even think that the Jets are intimidated by the big loss in December. At that level they are way to competitive for that. I'm sure they broke down the that film, and they where shown how this mistake and that mistake that THEY made would have turned the entire game around. By that Wednesday, EVERY Jet player would have been convinced that it wasn't the Pats that beat them, but they beat themselves....and they know how to correct the problem.

    The Jets are going to come into Foxboro just as confident that they will win the game as they did in September and again in December.

    BOTTOM LINE - its all about THIS game. What happened before, good or bad.....doesn't matter. God help us if we lose. :D
     
  2. BrainTrust66

    BrainTrust66 Practice Squad Player

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    Wow, well I won't try to break down this entire novel, but a couple of things stood out.

    SO TRUE. In fact the quote from LadyT itself was ridiculous: "You don't do another man's sack dance." Well, Lady, if a man has to HAVE a sack dance then I reserve the right to do it should I beat him!

    OK, a legitimate concern but one that I'm sure Belichick has been preparing his team for. Brady is unlikely to be fooled too often and I'm guessing that it's been a point of emphasis for the kids as well. Keep in mind that the Jets probably can't go too crazy because the more complex they make their schemes, the more likely that THEY will blow an assignment as well.
     
  3. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks In the Starting Line-Up

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    I am pretty nervous about the game and certainly prepared for the patriots to lose. This is the NFL, the Jets are a good team and Rexy is a good coach. I should be more confident than I am, but this game does concern me.

    Rex has put the pressure on us fans, if the patriots lose, we pay the price. That really kind of sucks.
     
  4. Wheelssps

    Wheelssps Practice Squad Player

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    Great read! And another thought on your take that this came can't be lost, especially from a FANS perspective:

    I totally agree, and also think that the fans in Foxboro will be nutty because of it. RR and Cromartie have guaranteed that Gillette will be one of the most hostile environments the Jets will have played in recently, even more than the December game. That's fine if you're a composed, seasoned, team, but I'm looking forward to seeing the brown stain on the back of Sanchez's pants when he hears the crowd noise as he tries to take the field.

    Whatever effect this week's idiotic trash-talking has achieved for either team, it has guaranteed that the loudness of Gillette will be epic.
     
  5. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    The one thing that sucks is we can win this game 52-0 and these clowns will still run their mouths constantly next year like it never happened. Meanwhile you know our guys aren't going to boast, it's just another win and onto our next opponent. If we lose, we're going to hear about it from everyone from every angle.
     
  6. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I know the Patriots will trade around in the draft but in comparing our futures and the Jets, remember that when the Jets make their second pick of the draft the Patriots will already have drafted 5 players (1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 3a) as the Jets lose their #2 for Cromartie. I realize we won't actually keep all those picks but Belichick usually ends up in a stronger position after draft day trades, not a weaker one.
     
  7. BrainTrust66

    BrainTrust66 Practice Squad Player

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    Well, it comes with the territory. When I was a kid (70's) I couldn't STAND the Dallas Cowboys. As a Pats fan I resented the whole "America's Team" thing and I despised everything about their organization...and yet they won, and won, and won. So I would pick holes in everything they did; I gloated when they failed and brushed it aside when they succeded.

    So now I've come to grips with the Patriots as the "villain" and have learned to embrace my inner Evil Empire. I think that this all came about in the aftermath of CameraGate. I got sick and tired of having to defend, defend, defend so now I let the jealous people seethe and very rarely hit back. I just enjoy the wins - more than ever before. That's why I'm so invested in this particular squad because it's time for the Empire to Strike Back!
     
  8. RelocatedPatFan

    RelocatedPatFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    Great read as always...especially agree on the fan perspective.

    quoting above, do you think this means Rex is going to have to make 2 game plans (or serious adjustments for the second half) as the patriots will adapt to what the Jets are doing.

    I know the rookie tight ends might struggle a lttle, but they do present a serious matchup challenge for the Jets...so that might balance this out a bit. Not too worried about the young players trying to do too much as BB will be coaching them. I would think this might be a good game to get the balls in our offense's hands as soon as possible to try and put the pressure on Sanchez to score points.
     
  9. borg

    borg In the Starting Line-Up

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    Can you expand on this....

    "Next season will bring the deepest and most talented FA class the league has seen."

    Are you saying after the '11 season? And what positions and who?
     
  10. BelizePats

    BelizePats Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Hi Ken,

    You are bang on in your assessment of us fans not being prepared to lose. I can't even think about it. It would just kill me. And the very worst of it is the thought of LAdyT walking off our field, a winner. This must not happen!! I can feel my internal organs starting to shut down as I think about this. Must think happy thoughts.
    Pats 35 Jets 17
     
  11. Buchanty

    Buchanty On the Game Day Roster

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    Great post as usual. I look forward to your Idle Thoughts threads and they have become part of my pregame preparation to make sure I have read them and the comments they invite.

    I think you nailed the fans agony though, sharpened by the smack talk of the last week and underpinned by the realization that the Jets are a good team with a very good coach. I would also add the insecurity of knowing how our rookies will play in their debut playoff game.

    We cant even look to the weather to helping us that much - temperatures will start around 31F and fall to 28F with winds doing the same 11mph to 8mph. However I still think that Sanchez will be out of his element.

    I agree with you on Cromartie crossing the line and acting like a kindergartner, but I put more blame on Rex for not censuring it. Unfortunately it is part of the team's character and they will be the same next year and years after (I think Rex will be around for a while, there certainly isnt a coach out there better for the Jets).

    The only point on which I would offer a different opinion is the choices the Jets will have to make next year with their RFA and FAs. At the moment there is no CBA and therefore no cap. I do think there will be a new CBA and one of the concessions the owners will have to make to accommodate 18 games is a larger cap and possibly a fairer distribution. If that is the case then the Jets may be able to keep their talent for at least another year, meaning that they have another year at the title. Their major worries should be the running game which has declined from last year and promises to continue to do so in 2011. Their defense is also in a decline, but they are still top 8 and they can regain their prominence by improving their pass rush and safeties, and as you said next year has the deepest FA market.

    Can we lose? Yes. Can I live with the loss and the yapping of the immature? Yes. Will I have to? No.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2011
  12. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I will be shocked if the Jets win. WHY?

    Look at BB's record after a bye, Look at the improvement of this D after BB has a chance to coach em up during a bye.

    Players get some time to heal up, Jets coming off an emotional win.

    Jets need to be at least +1 in turnovers if they are to win, I don't see it.

    Match ups of Pats skill players vs Jets D are great for Pats lots of mismatches to exploit, we have the best QB in the history of the NFL in reading D and making good decisions.

    Pats D 3rd in the league in pts allowed in the 2nd half of the season.

    Sanchez is very shaky in cold and wind......

    It would be a disaster if the Pats lose, this team in this stadium with this coach and this QB won't lose.
     
  13. letekro

    letekro In the Starting Line-Up

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    When is the books on tape version released?
     
  14. hyperpat

    hyperpat Practice Squad Player

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    #24 Jersey

    True enough to start the game. But even professional athletes are human (well, at least they come from human parents). Should the Patriots get up fast and the game starts going against them, don't tell me that some Jets players won't start to get a whisper in their heads, "Uh-oh, here we go again." Several observers, including ex-players, have said that the Jest gave up in the second half of the 45-3 game. If the Jesters get down early I think it is only human nature for a seed of doubt to crystallize. Especially when you have recently been so thoroughly humiliated. The tape reruns in their heads. That's not to say the Jest will throw in the towel, but when doubt creeps in, the game gets that much more difficult.

    That's my psych 101 take, anyway. ;)
     
  15. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    I'm not too worried about Patriot receivers making "devastating" mistakes. There aren't many plays where Brady throws a ball to a place a receiver should have been but wasn't.

    In general, I'm not worried about the Jets beating the Pats in speed, quickness, decisions, or precision. They can outjump the Pats some on offense, but that isn't enough. To win, they also have to out-hit the Pats decisively, and that doesn't seem likely.
     
  16. Wheelssps

    Wheelssps Practice Squad Player

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    I think he means that the free agent class will be so deep because of the past year's RFA clause that kept people like Mankins from being a free agent that normally would have. Many other teams had players that normally would have been free agents that weren't, thus making this past year's free agent crop relatively thin and the prospects for next year (after this season), deeper.

    Patfranken, I'll let you expand on the players, positions, etc, and also please correct the above if not accurate!

    Cheers.
     
  17. crasherino

    crasherino Rookie

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    Hey Ken.

    I'm not sure that the Jets are in as dire straits as you suggest, Ken. With respect to the Dline, they have:

    Pouha (who's 30 but doesn't have the wear and tear), Devito (the blue collar lunch pail guy) and Ellis, who probably has at least one more year left - They'll probably give him a deal at a year or two at $2 - 3 million/yr. He's still been solid - hardly spectacular, but can certainly hold the POA and somehow, always plays his best games against the Pats. If nothing else, its good to have a long term guy like that on your team who knows what its like to hate your rival.

    Then, you have a whole slew of young guys. They were very big on Pitoitua (sp?) before the season - he put on weight and is just a mountain man at End. His achillies injury ended his season before it began, but he'll be back to compete. And then they have young guys who will have time to develop in Gilbert, Dixon and Taveseau. Of those guys, Dixon seems to be the one that has the best chance to develop into a contributor.

    Considering the upcoming draft and how potentially stocked it is with guys who can make the conversion to 3-4 DE, its certainly an option to go that way. They will almost certainly put their attention to the defensive side of the ball in the draft. I'm not convinced that Cro will be here next year, which is OK - he's been very hot and cold, and its not like he's the greatest team player and leader. Harris will be back, IMO, which basically leaves DE/OLB as big needs.

    The Offense has no real needs, player-wise. All that is really needed is for Sanchez to grow. And he's making strides, but still has a way to go. But, I'm cautiously optimistic that he will continue to improve. He doesn't need to become Manning/Brady for the Jets to succeed in the long run, but he does need to start completing passes at over 60% clip and be able to challenge the defense down the field in addition to hitting his slants.

    I don't know if they can keep both Holmes and Edwards and I'm not sure if its the biggest deal if they don't. I was very Pro-Holmes until somewhat recently, but I can't keep closing my eyes to Holmes' inconsistent play and Edwards' clutchness. But, one thing I noticed, the Jets move the ball quite well with only one of them in the game and if one of them leaves, it will allow the remaining guy to become the true #1 WR - with Cotch being the clear #2. Neither of Holmes/Edwards has really been able to get into a true rhythm and Cotch has had a disappointing season, probably on account of those other guys. The Jets might be better off with a solid but unspectacular #3 WR to complement either Holmes or edwards and Cotch.

    I won't suggest that the Jets outlook is as rosy as the Pats - the Pats young defense developing this year (in conjunction with Brady - the known quantity) makes them the team to beat going forward. But, the Jets won't be dismantled. They may not be able to keep everyone, but the core will be in tact for quite a while with a QB who got them to the AFCG and at least the Divisional Round, who will only improve.
     
  18. crasherino

    crasherino Rookie

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    Quick question to the guys here....just wondering what your take is as to your DL.....It has been absolutely decimated with injuries, but the one constant has been Wilfork. If you had the choice, would you rather have a healthy Wilfork and have Warren, Wright, Brace, etc. be out, or would you rather have all those other guys be healthy with Wilfork out?

    Just curious as its somewhat analagous to the Jets situation with Jenkins. Jenkins may not be as durable as Wilfork (see the last two years), but he changes a game like few others when he's in there. Pouha has filled in admirably - very well even, but he's still not Jenkins.
     
  19. NYCPatsFan

    NYCPatsFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    No Jersey Selected

    Ken,

    Thanks for the write-up. I am so focussed on this game that I can't even think about Monday, leave alone next season. :)

    Request - if you have the time, can you have a quick read @ Bruschi's analysis after the Browns loss (in which he mentions that the Browns D knew a lot more on our timing/snap count etc) and give your thoughts on why Ryan wouldn't do the same, thanks to some input from his brother, please?

    I thought that the input from Browns would have occured during the Nov game and maybe it did; but the Jets losing their safety on Wed - right after the game plans were finalized -threw their D into a mess, which IMO explained why they gave up so many points.

    So, I expect the Jets D to be a lot more robust this time and do exactly what the Browns and Giants did: hurry TB quickly, get physical with our WRs, and force the O to miss their beat and hence forced to punt.

    Thanks,
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2011
  20. borg

    borg In the Starting Line-Up

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    Why do you believe Sanchez is making strides forward? Teams with subpar QBs surround their QBs with pricier talent to compensate for lack QB of skills. His TD/Int has improved this year but he remains a 55% passer. Clearly, the WRs are doing more when they can get the ball, but Sanchez has trouble getting it to them...despite the upgrade. I saw a QB that was scared shi*less in the first half of the Indy game, before he elevated his performance to...average QB status. What kind of leap do you expect next year...scared shi*tless for the 1st quarter only?
     
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