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To justify my position I brought up the example of the only QB who is ever mentioned as being BETTER than Manning/Brady.....Joe Montana.....and HE didn't bring what amounts to a first round pick straight up. Not even close. And he wasn't coming off a season when he didn't play, nor was his medical condition even close to being as iffy as Manning's is, nor did he carry the cap hit that Manning does.I'm not sure why you would think that, but that is a very interesting viewpoint. 6 months ago we the majority of the media were having debates as to whether Manning or Brady was a better QB...now he had an injury that kept him out for the entire season, and he's only worth a 3rd or 4th rounder???
I would be willing to wager a lot of money that there are a handful of teams out there that would be more than willing to risk one of their 1st round picks on having a sure-fire, proven HOF QB...
Let's remember than Manning just re-upped his deal right before news of his injury. The only possible way he returns to football is if his surgery etc has allowed him to compete again, I don't think there's too much grey area for teams to ponder regarding his health. If he returns and can throw the football, he is instantly one of the top 5 QB's in the NFL.
Considering that there are a ton of 1st round busts every year, I am quite certain that there would be some interested parties willing to make their team a hell of a lot better by giving up a 1st round pick for a guy like Peyton Manning. Not only does he instantly make you a competitor, but he also draws a ton of attention, instant respect for your team, and increased ticket sales. The position of QB is by far the most important one in the NFL. When teams consistantly take QB's such as Blaine Gabbart with a 1st round pick, I am sure that they'd certainly consider taking Peyton Manning
With a super quick release + being a pure pocket passer, I wouldn't see any reason to believe that he couldn't easily play another 3-4 years, possibly even 4-5 years at a pretty high level.
Now it may end up with the Colts releasing Manning to avoid the $28MM cap hit, and use that money to help build up the team around Oliver Luck, and re-sign all the FAs the Colts have, While I very much doubt that this scenario happens, it would make more sense than some team giving up a #1 pick to go along with all the baggage and questions that Manning brings to the table.
I'm just as confused as you are with YOUR reasoning. Sure 1st round picks bust, but still the league holds them in great value, and if Joe Montana didn't bring close to a first round pick straight up, why would Manning.
Oh well, Supe, maybe they end up keeping him....given how little they would get for him. they might have to.