Ideal snap counts for Front 7 players

[fester]

What are people's expectations for ideal playing time for front seven defenders. Let's assume no injuries and the Patriots play 5DBs at least 60% ofthe time.

Chandler Jones -- 90% -- get him off the field only for breathers and blow-outs
Mayo --- 90% get him off the field only for breathers and blow-outs
Ninkovich -- 85% -- breathers, blow-outs and very short yardage to be replaced by a traditional power left end.

Collins -- 80% more time in sub than base
Hightower 80% more base than sub

Wilfork 55% -- run downs, short yardage, base off in most sub packages
Kelly 55% --- more sub packages,
Easley 55% -- more sub packages

Smith -- 20% rotate in for the other DEs -- short yardage replacement for Nink
Siliga -- 20% rotate in for Wilfork, short yardage etc.
Armstead -- 20% more sub than base can cover DE as a run stopper if need be (I think)
Beaucharnais 15% give starting LBs a breather
Jones/Vellano 10% to 15% -- give DTs breather
Buchanan: 15%

 

[pencilneckgeek]

An interesting question and one that I think Coach B could hazard a guess at halfway into the season. (Actually, he'll be guessing at it all season long and he doesn't get to discount injuries.) Balancing the effect of playtime on explosiveness and durability of individual players with the relative performance and reliability between players is what coaches do, based on what their eyes tell them. Let's revisit this thread when we've seen how explosive/strong at the point-of-attack our front 7 players look in the 4th quarter of the first game, relative to the 2nd quarter, with Reiss's snap count numbers in hand. Until then, your numbers are about as good a guess as any, which is to say "a moderately wild guess." My own WAG is that Smith and Chris Jones will see more time than that and that Easley and Kelly will see less. Assuming full health, I'd expect Vince to be the only DT with more than 50% of the snaps over a few game stretch early in the season.

 

[mgteich]

So you IDEAL is for our LB's and DE's to play 80% of the reps and see no problem with Jones playing 90%. This gives a tired defense in the playoffs.

In addition, our DE/LB backups are so weak that we cannot afford any injuries at either position.

What are people's expectations for ideal playing time for front seven defenders. Let's assume no injuries and the Patriots play 5DBs at least 60% ofthe time.

Chandler Jones -- 90% -- get him off the field only for breathers and blow-outs
Mayo --- 90% get him off the field only for breathers and blow-outs
Ninkovich -- 85% -- breathers, blow-outs and very short yardage to be replaced by a traditional power left end.

Collins -- 80% more time in sub than base
Hightower 80% more base than sub

Wilfork 55% -- run downs, short yardage, base off in most sub packages
Kelly 55% --- more sub packages,
Easley 55% -- more sub packages

Smith -- 20% rotate in for the other DEs -- short yardage replacement for Nink
Siliga -- 20% rotate in for Wilfork, short yardage etc.
Armstead -- 20% more sub than base can cover DE as a run stopper if need be (I think)
Beaucharnais 15% give starting LBs a breather
Jones/Vellano 10% to 15% -- give DTs breather
Buchanan: 15%

 

[TonyTucker]

I'd like to see them get Jones and Ninkovich down to around 80 percent if possible. They definitely can't go 98 and 95 percent again.

 

[Jrik83]

I have to agree with MG that it's definitely not ideal to have anyone playing 80 percent or more of the snaps. It is ideal to have a nice rotation to keep guys them fresh and healthy, which is why I'm particularly uncomfortable with the current linebacker depth. I guess the fact that they used the sub package 67 percent (http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...6703/when-sub-defense-is-the-new-base-defense) of the time last year makes that feel slightly better.

With that being said they still do need to use a base defense or be as exposed in the running game as they were last year. This is total conjecture, but I think the current roster calls for them to go back to the 4-3 under. This would kick Ninkovich out to OLB. Another poster brought this up in another thread and I think he or she was really on to something. My main point in bringing this up is that ultimately it's really hard to give you an ideal snap count for them without a lot of conjecture

 

[mgteich]

Who would be your starting and backups in the various positions of the 4-3 under?

This is total conjecture, but I think the current roster calls for them to go back to the 4-3 under. This would kick Ninkovich out to OLB. Another poster brought this up in another thread and I think he or she was really on to something. My main point in bringing this up is that ultimately it's really hard to give you an ideal snap count for them without a lot of conjecture

 

[Jrik83]

I think the obvious weak point is the LDE. Since this is more of a stout position than we are use to with Ninkovich at LDE. I read a report that said that the Pats listed Easley as a DE during their scouting reports. This didn't make sense to me except for in this defense (unless it was a typo by the reporter or someone in the team). Albeit it probably does waste some of his talents. So I'm probably way off base here. Maybe something like:

LDE Easley, Armstead, Smith/Buchanan (in emergencies)
NT Wilfork, Siliga
DT Kelly, Chr Jones,
RDE Cha Jones, Smith/Buchanan

SLB Ninkovich, Collins, Hightower
MLB Hightower, Beauharnais, Mayo
WLB Mayo, Collins,

 

[mgteich]

So, you would take the oft-injured top inside pass-rusher in the draft and make him our starting RDE with Armstead as his backup, someone who hasn't played a down?

I think the obvious weak point is the LDE. Since this is more of a stout position than we are use to with Ninkovich at LDE. I read a report that said that the Pats listed Easley as a DE during their scouting reports. This didn't make sense to me except for in this defense (unless it was a typo by the reporter or someone in the team). Albeit it probably does waste some of his talents. So I'm probably way off base here. Maybe something like:

LDE Easley, Armstead, Smith/Buchanan (in emergencies)
NT Wilfork, Siliga
DT Kelly, Chr Jones,
RDE Cha Jones, Smith/Buchanan

SLB Ninkovich, Collins, Hightower
MLB Hightower, Beauharnais, Mayo
WLB Mayo, Collins,

 

[Brady6]

So, you would take the oft-injured top inside pass-rusher in the draft and make him our starting RDE with Armstead as his backup, someone who hasn't played a down?

I think he listed Easley as the LE, and actually in a base set that is where he projects best in a 4-3 under.

4-3 Under
5tech LE-Easley-Armstead
1tech DT-Wilfork-Siliga
3tech DT-Kelly-Jones (DT)
Leo RE-Jones (RE)-Buchanan
Sam LB-Ninkovich-Collins
Mike LB-Hightower-Beauharnais
Will LB-Mayo-Collins

4-2-5 Nickel
9tech LE-Ninkovich-Smith-Moore
1tech DT-Easley-Armstead -Jones (DT)
3tech DT-Jones (DE)-Smith-Moore
7tech RE-Buchanan-Smith-Moore
SLB-Collins-Hightower
WLB-Mayo-Hightower

Keep in mind we were 30th in the NFL against the run last season so I would not be shocked to see Belichick move back to a heavier front like he ran in 2011.

 

[Jrik83]

So, you would take the oft-injured top inside pass-rusher in the draft and make him our starting RDE with Armstead as his backup, someone who hasn't played a down?

I think it is important to note that Easely would still be used mainly as an interior pass rusher because the trend is to be in the subset more often than the base d (as counter intuitive as that is to say). And he would kick inside in the nickle.

When looking at how this roster is currently built (and there could obviously be some changes between now and the start of the season), I'm seeing a drastic imbalance in terms of depth between the linebackers and d line, and it just feels like one logical way of trying to remedy it.

I agree that the LDE situation would be less than ideal in this scenario. But counting on Beauharnais or one of the UDFA's for significant snaps (in a rotation or god forbid that there is an injury) seems like a bigger issue to me. Maybe I'm just not showing him and the rookies enough respect though.