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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Statistically it should happen every 16 (2 to the 4th power) seasons, on average.stcjones said:When ALL 4 teams in the AFC east LOST their first preseason games......anyone?
PromisedLand said:Statistically it should happen every 16 (2 to the 4th power) seasons, on average.
Congratulations, I've been out-geeked!Patsfanin Philly said:but only if the teams have a 50/50 chance of winning their games (i.e. flip of a coin). If one of those teams wins 60% (.6)of their games, another one wins 40% (.4) and the other two win 50% (.5) of their games, IIRC it would be .4 times .6 times .5 times .5 which is equal to .06 (which is actually less than 2 to the 4th which is .0625.) or once very 16.7 years........
Just my $0.02,
PromisedLand said:Congratulations, I've been out-geeked!
I resemble that comment.............PromisedLand said:Congratulations, I've been out-geeked!
Patsfanin Philly said:but only if the teams have a 50/50 chance of winning their games (i.e. flip of a coin). If one of those teams wins 60% (.6)of their games, another one wins 40% (.4) and the other two win 50% (.5) of their games, IIRC it would be .4 times .6 times .5 times .5 which is equal to .06 (which is actually less than 2 to the 4th which is .0625.) or once very 16.7 years........
Just my $0.02,
patchick said:Outstanding.
A question...is it NFL policy that division rivals don't meet in the preseason? A non-zero probablility of two AFCE opponents meeting would certainly throw the numbers off.
PromisedLand said:Statistically it should happen every 16 (2 to the 4th power) seasons, on average.
Who said anything about 16 teams?zoostation said:The division hasn't had only 4 teams in it long enough to use a 16 team measure. Besides when has a preseason loss ever meant anything?
PromisedLand said:Who said anything about 16 teams?
Without any a priori knowledge of the teams probability of winning, each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, or a probability of 0.5. The probability of each team winning two games out of four preseason games is therefore also 50% or 0.5. Assuming independent "events" (which means two teams in the same division cannot play each other in this scenario, which is normally true), the probability of N teams each winning 2 games out of 4 is therefore (0.5) to the Nth power. If there are 4 teams this works out to 1/16th.
Patsfanin Philly, how'd I do?
PS It was meant as a compliment.
Doesn't make sense that way either. Are you just jerking my chain?zoostation said:16 years not teams... .
So if TAILS = Loss, and you flip three tails in a row. what are the odds of flipping another tailPatsfanin Philly said:but only if the teams have a 50/50 chance of winning their games (i.e. flip of a coin).
spacecrime said:So if TAILS = Loss, and you flip three tails in a row. what are the odds of flipping another tail
PromisedLand said:Who said anything about 16 teams?
Patsfanin Philly, how'd I do?
PS It was meant as a compliment.