but only if the teams have a 50/50 chance of winning their games (i.e. flip of a coin). If one of those teams wins 60% (.6)of their games, another one wins 40% (.4) and the other two win 50% (.5) of their games, IIRC it would be .4 times .6 times .5 times .5 which is equal to .06 (which is actually less than 2 to the 4th which is .0625.) or once very 16.7 years........ Just my $0.02,

Thanks for the work guys....god knows I can't create that kind of mathematical analysis......just curious!!! thanks again!!!

Well...with the state of the AFC East it probably will happen more often until the Bill and Jets regroup.

Outstanding. A question...is it NFL policy that division rivals don't meet in the preseason? A non-zero probablility of two AFCE opponents meeting would certainly throw the numbers off.

I used to wonder if teams played the same opponents each preseason. The pats played Cincy two years in a row and the Panthers (local team round here) had the Skins the same two years. Not sure about whether or not they'd play division rivals though. Would it be bad for your rivals to get extra experience/game film before playing you for real?

The division hasn't had only 4 teams in it long enough to use a 16 year measure. Besides when has a preseason loss ever meant anything?

Who said anything about 16 teams? Without any a priori knowledge of the teams probability of winning, each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, or a probability of 0.5. The probability of each team winning two games out of four preseason games is therefore also 50% or 0.5. Assuming independent "events" (which means two teams in the same division cannot play each other in this scenario, which is normally true), the probability of N teams each winning 2 games out of 4 is therefore (0.5) to the Nth power. If there are 4 teams this works out to 1/16th. Patsfanin Philly, how'd I do? PS It was meant as a compliment.

1 in 2 or 50% becasue each event is independent. If you want the chances of flipping 4 tails in a row you multiply the chances of each event by itself, so it would be .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 or .0625 or 1/16 for 4 in a row of tails.