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I wonder when the last time was......

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by stcjones, Aug 13, 2006.

  1. stcjones

    stcjones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    When ALL 4 teams in the AFC east LOST their first preseason games......anyone?
     
  2. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm sick but not sick enough to keep track of preseason recors across multiple seasons!
    ;)
     
  3. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    Statistically it should happen every 16 (2 to the 4th power) seasons, on average.
     
  4. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    but only if the teams have a 50/50 chance of winning their games (i.e. flip of a coin). If one of those teams wins 60% (.6)of their games, another one wins 40% (.4) and the other two win 50% (.5) of their games, IIRC it would be .4 times .6 times .5 times .5 which is equal to .06 (which is actually less than 2 to the 4th which is .0625.) or once very 16.7 years........

    Just my $0.02,
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2006
  5. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    Congratulations, I've been out-geeked! ;)
     
  6. stcjones

    stcjones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Thanks for the work guys....god knows I can't create that kind of mathematical analysis......just curious!!! thanks again!!!
     
  7. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    I resemble that comment.............
    I take that as a compliment.
     
  8. rabthepat

    rabthepat 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Well...with the state of the AFC East it probably will happen more often until the Bill and Jets regroup.
     
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    Outstanding.

    A question...is it NFL policy that division rivals don't meet in the preseason? A non-zero probablility of two AFCE opponents meeting would certainly throw the numbers off.
     
  10. BruschiOnTap

    BruschiOnTap On the Game Day Roster

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    I used to wonder if teams played the same opponents each preseason. The pats played Cincy two years in a row and the Panthers (local team round here) had the Skins the same two years. Not sure about whether or not they'd play division rivals though. Would it be bad for your rivals to get extra experience/game film before playing you for real?
     
  11. zoostation

    zoostation In the Starting Line-Up

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    The division hasn't had only 4 teams in it long enough to use a 16 year measure. Besides when has a preseason loss ever meant anything?
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2006
  12. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    Who said anything about 16 teams?

    Without any a priori knowledge of the teams probability of winning, each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, or a probability of 0.5. The probability of each team winning two games out of four preseason games is therefore also 50% or 0.5. Assuming independent "events" (which means two teams in the same division cannot play each other in this scenario, which is normally true), the probability of N teams each winning 2 games out of 4 is therefore (0.5) to the Nth power. If there are 4 teams this works out to 1/16th.

    Patsfanin Philly, how'd I do? :)

    PS It was meant as a compliment.
     
  13. zoostation

    zoostation In the Starting Line-Up

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    16 years not teams... .
     
  14. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    :confused: Doesn't make sense that way either. Are you just jerking my chain?
     
  15. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    So if TAILS = Loss, and you flip three tails in a row. what are the odds of flipping another tail :D
     
  16. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    1 in 2 or 50% becasue each event is independent. If you want the chances of flipping 4 tails in a row you multiply the chances of each event by itself, so it would be .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 or .0625 or 1/16 for 4 in a row of tails.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 20, 2005
  17. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    You done good . Either that or we're both wrong........
     

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