I think this team is coming together

[emoney_33]

Re: I think this team is coming together.

What?

The obvious we're going to run it formation because the only guy who catches balls on the field is Aiken?

Sorry I was just saying, our tendencies that you indicated in your post are all on tape. The teams in the playoffs will surely be coached to our tendencies. One can only hope that our coaches (and I trust BB in this regard) will use this to their advantage when it matters most.

If you just damn well know that we are running out of a certain formation, how well does the flea flicker or even play action work then.

 

[The Dynasty]

Re: I think this team is coming together.

I think this team isnt coming together or falling apart. The have stayed neutral these past few weeks, they have definitely not taken a step back, but on the other hand they really havent taken a step forward. They won a true road game, that is the only positive thing to come from the past 2 games. Scoring 21 and 17 points against the Panthers and Bills is unacceptable. Our defense has done its job, but still when you only beat the Bills and Panthers by a combined 18 points, that isnt very good. It wont get it done in the playoffs. You cant really say we've taken a step back, but we havent really taken one forward either

 

[upstater1]

Re: I think this team is coming together.

Sorry I was just saying, our tendencies that you indicated in your post are all on tape. The teams in the playoffs will surely be coached to our tendencies. One can only hope that our coaches (and I trust BB in this regard) will use this to their advantage when it matters most.

If you just damn well know that we are running out of a certain formation, how well does the flea flicker or even play action work then.

I really am not sure what the coaches are seeing. It's on the person calling the plays, and that person isn't Belichick, because I watched him on the sidelines yesterday, and he doesn't say a word for stretches on offense.

I'm not saying to take the empty backfield out of the playbook. The important thing is to mix up the plays and get the D guessing. Our playcalling looks simply unimaginative. belichick can't do anything about it. He can help with the strategy and scheming, but short of saying, "Mix things up, etc." it's all on the person calling the plays. That person is not Belichick. Belichick is the one responsible, ultimately, for the way things are going, but after you came up with the strategy, devised the schemes, etc., it's the play-callers responsibility to sequence the plays to keep the D off balance. This isn't high school football where execution matters more than anything. this is the NFL.

 

[emoney_33]

Re: I think this team is coming together.

I really am not sure what the coaches are seeing. It's on the person calling the plays, and that person isn't Belichick, because I watched him on the sidelines yesterday, and he doesn't say a word for stretches on offense.

I'm not saying to take the empty backfield out of the playbook. The important thing is to mix up the plays and get the D guessing. Our playcalling looks simply unimaginative. belichick can't do anything about it. He can help with the strategy and scheming, but short of saying, "Mix things up, etc." it's all on the person calling the plays. That person is not Belichick. Belichick is the one responsible, ultimately, for the way things are going, but after you came up with the strategy, devised the schemes, etc., it's the play-callers responsibility to sequence the plays to keep the D off balance. This isn't high school football where execution matters more than anything. this is the NFL.

What I am saying is that some of the "predictable" formations run over the course of the season can be used to set up the opponent in the playoffs. For instance if there's a certain formation that you notice we run 99% of the time from, then you better be sure that the week leading up to playing the Patriots the other team knows this too. And thus during gameplan for an important game in the playoffs, that formation can be used to get a big play with a play action, flea flicker etc...

The no-back formations I am not concerned about, they've been using them for a while now. We just need another receiver to step up.

My main point is that being predictable makes being unpredictable more effective. You can't be unpredictable and come up with new things and be completely random throughout a 16 game season and expect great things.

A play action fake fools no one when it is run too often for instance. So predictability can be used to set up big plays in the future. I think we've seen it every year that this team is relatively vanilla and predictable on both sides of the ball early in the year, and later in the year they start throwing in wrinkles. BB isn't the only guy to study film on his opponents.

 

[upstater1]

Re: I think this team is coming together.

What I am saying is that some of the "predictable" formations run over the course of the season can be used to set up the opponent in the playoffs. For instance if there's a certain formation that you notice we run 99% of the time from, then you better be sure that the week leading up to playing the Patriots the other team knows this too. And thus during gameplan for an important game in the playoffs, that formation can be used to get a big play with a play action, flea flicker etc...

The no-back formations I am not concerned about, they've been using them for a while now. We just need another receiver to step up.

My main point is that being predictable makes being unpredictable more effective. You can't be unpredictable and come up with new things and be completely random throughout a 16 game season and expect great things.

A play action fake fools no one when it is run too often for instance. So predictability can be used to set up big plays in the future. I think we've seen it every year that this team is relatively vanilla and predictable on both sides of the ball early in the year, and later in the year they start throwing in wrinkles. BB isn't the only guy to study film on his opponents.

I think play action works 50% of the time.

Why 50%?

Because half the time the defense will guess wrong. It's like flipping a coin.

If you're running half the time (or close to) and passing half the time (or close to) then the play action is going to work 50% of the time (I'm not talking about a 50% completion rate, but a 50% fooling the defense rate).

As for the trick play when we went full backfield with only Aiken as a WR, you really think it's going to be effective to run play action there?

 

[emoney_33]

Re: I think this team is coming together.

I think play action works 50% of the time.

Why 50%?

Because half the time the defense will guess wrong. It's like flipping a coin.

If you're running half the time (or close to) and passing half the time (or close to) then the play action is going to work 50% of the time (I'm not talking about a 50% completion rate, but a 50% fooling the defense rate).

As for the trick play when we went full backfield with only Aiken as a WR, you really think it's going to be effective to run play action there?

I disagree completely. If you use play action 50% of the time, the defense will stop biting and be more expectant of it. You are trying to get the safeties/DBs to bite when their job is to cover the pass. If you run play-action 50% of the time out of a certain formation, you can be pretty damn confident the defense is NOT biting 50% of the time. They don't throw a quarter in the air and sell out on rush/pass. However if they feel they have certain information (the pats run 99% of the time out of this formation), then they will use that information to attempt to jump the run quicker. Play-action works by making the defender believe the RB has the ball, not making the defender guess. The best way to make a defender believe that is continuously feeding them information, so that even subconsciously they just know you are running the ball and decide to take that chance... and then BAM!

Absolutely 100% it will be effective to run play action with Aiken as the only WR, and the reason it will be effective is because there's a high chance that the defense bites on it. Depending on how/when they use this formation, which I have not seen the breakdowns for. If they are using it only in 3rd/4th and short then it's common battle of will at the front lines of who wants it more.

 

[CrazyDave]

Looks like the trend is continuing.
I thought yesterday was a pretty solid effort, to say the least.